Tonight’s polls

I’ve no confirmation of any polls tonight, but CCHQ’s Henry Macrory has tweeted that there will be two, one in the Sunday Telegraph (so almost certainly ICM) and one elsewhere, averaging a lead of 12 points.

I can’t vouch for either. ICM’s previous poll showed figures of CON 42%, LAB 29%, LDEM 19%, so a twelve point lead would be pretty much no change.

I’ll be out tonight at the opening night of the local pantomime, so I’ll update when I’ve finished “He’s behind you”-ing and got home. Feel free to use this thread to discuss the new polls should they turn up before I do.


49 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

  1. So probably the polls have a 13 and 11 percent difference of 14 and 10 percent difference. Be interesting if the Tory number is above 40 in both polls. My guess is the ICM poll will be the poll with the larger tory advantage as they have had the tories higher than other polls. If ICM has the lower spread that will be another poll Labour made up some ground. Also was this poll in the field before or during the banking bonus stories. This kind of story can affect the polls for a few days but typically the public usually moves on to the next story fairly quickly.

    Hopefully there might be some polling coming up on climate change. This will be a big issue the next two weeks.

  2. I am worried by the undue and malign influence of Frank Luntz on the British polling scene.This American was at Oxford with David Cameron and both were members of Bullingdon.He is given credit in 2005 of manipulating a studio audience in such a manner as to persuade them that Cameron was the best choice of leader for the Tories.He appeared this Friday on Andrew Neil’s programme and proceeded to try and manipulate the audience into thinking in his own way e.g. schools and hospitals are bad in Britain.However poll after poll show that we British really appreciate our schools and hospitals.this man is out of touch deliberately..Posts about this are beginning to appear on blog sites.

  3. Oh God, an outrider of the Tinfoil Hat Army has arrived.

    Yes, Lin, those cunning Americans with their secret mind-control tactics, cunningly going on the Andrew Neil show and trying to persuade the TV audience of their viewpoint – something no politician has ever done before on British TV …

  4. Luntz was too transparent to be efffective.
    He was invited on as a pollster but ended up speaking like a cons campaigner.
    I have no problem with the latter but I doubt he will get asked back and he may lose his Newsnight gig due to his clear bias.
    I don’t make claims about media bias and am not here just one guest on one program who lost his supposed objectivity.
    Quite funny actually, he was that bad even Portillo seemed embarrassed.

  5. “Hopefully there might be some polling coming up on climate change. This will be a big issue the next two weeks.”

    I looked back at past climate change polling during the week, and there really isn’t as much of it as I thought there would be.

    What would be nice to have is a question asking whether people think there is global warming, and whether or not mankind is the main contributing factor asked in an indentical way to a question from a few years back, to see how opinion is changing.

    While I’m sure we’ll get some polls asking about it, I’m not optimistic we’ll get something really comparable using wording we can compare properly to some past finding.

    Still, we’ll see.

  6. Luntz is no different to many on the American right (and some on the Tory right).

    He opposes all things public. So, to him, the NHS is a bad thing.

    I think this is still a minority view in the Conservative party but those who agree are – often – those with the loudest voices.

    Overall, I would advise just ignoring him. And his type.

  7. Luntz is a hack, and not a particularly good one. It doesn’t surprise me that the Tories are using him, but I doubt he’ll be a major factor.

    What does surprise me is that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems seem to have tried to get some assistance from George Lakoff, whose frames for progressive policies are generally rather convincing.

  8. Does climate change or environmental issues have much impact on voting? If it did I would have thought the three main parties would suffer, as they have concentrated on the marginal recyling enterprises rather than making any serious attempt to stem packaging in the first place, green taxes and replacing perfectly good light bulbs with inferior ones.

    I am a bit surprised that David C, a strong advocate of the NHS, is encouraging a spin doctor, who according to many contributors, is so against it. A definite vote loser if this is the case.

  9. For all those who think this guy Frank Luntz is a vote loser. Never heard of him or what he has to say and I imagine that 99% of the electorate hasnt either.

    Why do so many think that trivial non news stories will make any difference to the way people vote. A more news worthy story was that Ben Bernanke, the head of the US federal reserve blames Gordon brown for the banking crisis and the state of the UK economy when he was chancellor and even that didnt make the news.

    For polling intent to change drastically it has to be a major story with wide coverage in all media forms to get through to the general public. Most really dont give a damn unless it effects them directly

  10. @ Davey – “Does climate change or environmental issues have much impact on voting? If it did I would have thought the three main parties would suffer, as they have concentrated on the marginal recyling enterprises rather than making any serious attempt to stem packaging in the first place, green taxes and replacing perfectly good light bulbs with inferior ones.”

    I suspect that it’s one of those long-term issues that doesn’t figure among many voters’ top priorities.

    Also, I suspect that it’s difficult to gauge which way people will jump on climate change policies. Is giving large sums of money to the Developing World to help it cope a vote winner or a vote loser in a Britain in economic crisis? Do voters want to see British parties focused on global policies or on how Britain itself will cope with the challenges ahead? It’s hard to tell because most of the opinions we hear come from hardcore campaigners and so-called deniers – rarely do we get a measure of what ordinary people think or want on this issue.

  11. To James Ludlow, in response to your rude response to Lin Rees.

    It’s not against the law to think and have views and ideas you know – you clearly are very naive if you think the world operates in a pure manner.

  12. ICM Con 40 Lab 29 Lib 19

  13. If the average is 12 points then it is likely that both polls wil have the Tory position at 40 or above which suggests a slight recovery – interesting.

    Enjoy the panto Anthony – which one is it?

  14. @DAVEY
    Agree with you mate. DC is a very big fan of the NHS and the concept of the NHS. Why would he want some colonial neo con
    spouting ill informed critisism?

  15. Tories 44 %
    Lab 32%
    LD 15% according to Sunday Telegraph

  16. Conservatives actually down two on the last ICM poll, Lab and Lib Dems unchanged, but given the recent jitters they will probably be satisfied with this.

  17. Presumably the other poll must put the Tories on a 13 point lead.
    I cannot trace which pollster we are dealing with.

  18. YouGov

    40/27/18

  19. ICM Poll Sunday Telegraph: Conservatives 40% (-2), Labour 29% (nc), LIB DEMS 19% (nc). Conservatives leads 11%.

    YouGov/Sunday Times: Conservatives 40% (-1), Labour 27% (nc), LIB DEMS 18% (nc). Conservatives leads 13%.

  20. One with the gap closing by 2, one shrinking by 2. Stalemate.

    Going into xmas with lead around 11/12, labour’ll probably take that given the past year but still a clear win for cons.
    Look for interest in the full figures I guess

  21. Any slight drop in the polls for Tories has stopped or was not there before (given MOE). Best that can be said is they are becalmed with a minimum 10% lead but probably more like 12% lead. If they come out with a coherent and consistent fight they will romp home. Over to Cameron to get stuck in..

  22. The polls translate into majorities of 30 and 66 seats – an average of 48 – and that’s on a uniform swing basis which is deemed by many to underpredict the Tory gain.

    So certainly not a meltdown for the Tories at this stage and a move away from hung parliament territory.

  23. Andrew, ICM’s figures translate into a Tory majority of 20 – according to the seat predictor on this site!

  24. Dating from the 5th of November Yougov’s average is now Con 40.25 Lab 27.5 Lib Dems 18.25

  25. The polls mean majorities of 20 and 58 seats on a uniform swing. Wonder why some of us differ?

  26. The last 3 polls for 2004 by Yougov were averaging Con 32 Lab 35 Lib Dems 22.6.

    Each party improved by one point between then and the 2005 GE at the cost of the others.

    The Tories are looking good for a 13 point win.

  27. The ICM poll confirms the drop in Conservative support compared to October seen by the other pollsters. You Gov appears well within the margin of error on its previous polls. So looks like we’re pretty much around the Con 37-40, Lab 27-30 mark.

  28. It must be hugely disappointing for Labour to be 12 points behind after Brown’s ‘excellent week’.

    Could the negative ‘Tory Toffs’ already be backfiring on them?

  29. The trend is still downwards for the Tories. We see a swing of 6% to Labour within a month for ICM. And static over the same period with YouGov.

  30. As I read it ‘others’ have gone up by 2-3 .

    I think with this level of ‘others’ and such big movements in such a small percentage then any reading of small movements in the main parties is fraught with danger.

    Unless you are a statistician in the UEA-CRU.

    I think the tories will be more than satisfied with a general election %age split somewhere around 41-29-19.

    I think people are forgetting that in any GE campaign attention inevitably focuses on the record of the incumbent. And media have to give equal airtime – so plenty opportunity for that record to be trashed. With no record to defend it is really difficult for the govt and that isn where oppositions pick up in the polls.

  31. In my experience of looking at polls over the years I get the impression that, when the real results come through, the Tories tend to have slightly more than the polls predict and Labour slightly less. Is this a fair comment?

  32. I find it incredible that given an almost totally compliant media narrative the Conservative party can hardly touch 40% in these polls. Contributors can speculate and make up figures to comfort themselves but an election campaign – and it will be a long one- will be a debate and not a rubber stamp exercise. The Sunday Telegraph narrative around their ICM poll is funny – a Conservative lead down from 17 to 11 is a triumph ! But why let the facts get in the way…….

  33. There appear to be a lot of concerned Conservatives on here. Patting each other on the back because their lead is still around 12%.

    Well.

    12% is a comfortable majority. And only a fool would bet against that at the moment.

    But by the time of an election?

    That could have moved 6% in either direction.

    So here are the basic equations for you to mull over:-

    i. Economic recovery + House price rises accelerate + A Conservative split over Lisbon and Europe = Possible Labour recovery

    ii. More Labour infighing + slowdown in the ‘recovery’ + Cameron hits the right notes = Conservative majority increasing

    iii. Nothing moving one way or the other = As you were. A Tory majority of around 50

    Fact is, it really is too early to put your mortgage on ANY of the above.

  34. I still think final result will be:
    Tory 38%
    Labour 30%
    Lib Dem 19%

    Con 12 short of a majority

    Simon

  35. @DAVID IN FRANCE

    I think you missed this equation :-

    Gordon Brown + David Cameron + Election Campaign = X

    ( x is the size of the General Election victory )

  36. As always, I’ll wait till the data tables are published – then remove the Scottish figures to calculate the England & Wales poll. Not wholly representative due to the demographics, but with Scots only 8.4% of the electorate, it seems a reasonably accurate approximation.

    Given the recent Scottish polls showing a collapse of the LD vote (mainly to SNP) and a small slip by the Tories, and the continuing rise in “others” in the YouGov/ICM polls tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how much of the change in GB polling is Scots.

  37. Asked how the deficit should be reduced, respondents in the YouGov poll favoured spending cuts over tax rises, by 52% to 30%.

    This is interesting from The Times :-

    “The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says Britain, which was the world’s fourth largest economy as recently as 2005, has slipped to seventh this year behind America, China, Japan, Germany, France and Italy.

    By 2015, it predicts, Britain will be outside the world’s top 10, behind Russia, Brazil, India and Canada. Slow growth and a weak pound will be responsible for the slide.

    “Public opinion in the UK has not yet caught up with the potential impact of this change,” said Doug McWilliams, chief executive of the CEBR.

    “It means that, whether we like it or not, we are going to have to be prepared to put up with economic, political and social decisions made in other countries.” “

  38. If one were to assume the Tories being about 8-9% ahead on polling day it’s probably a waste of time trying to use the election calculators to determine whether they’ll have a majority of 10 seats or be short by 10 seats because it’ll just come down to a handful of votes in a few marginal seats and there’s no way the election calculators can be any help as far as that is concerned.

  39. A few hundred housewives in the West Midlands wrestling with whether or not they trust David Cameron’s hair will decide who forms a government.

  40. On these figures the same downward trend for the Tories is sustained.I still can’t understand the Angus Reid poll recently,will have to ignore any poll from them next time.Why can’t the Tories gain any ground given the favourable media coverage from most sources?

  41. @ Lin Rees
    I think they already have gained all the ground they can reasonably expect. No matter how well they do, many people simply will not vote for a right wing party…..or a unionist party…..or a euroskeptic party…
    The cons are somewhere over 10 points ahead, much more in marginals. You’d be hard pressed to paint anything other than old china….IMO it’s just the lack of lab fuck ups, and the blaming the govt disproportionately for economy&expenses wearing off….it’d be unrealistic to expect cons to stay 15 points ahead forever…

  42. In the 1992 election, despite being 8% ahead in the popular vote the Tories’ 21 seat majority was dependent on just 1,247 votes in 11 seats.

  43. @ Lin Rees
    I think they already have gained all the ground they can reasonably expect. No matter how well they do, many people simply will not vote for a right wing party…..or a unionist party…..or a euroskeptic party…
    The cons are somewhere over 10 points ahead, much more in marginals. You’d be hard pressed to paint anything other than old china….IMO it’s just the lack of lab f**k ups, and the blaming the govt disproportionately for economy&expenses wearing off….it’d be unrealistic to expect cons to stay 15 points ahead forever…

    f**k censored due to awaiting moderation otherwise :/

  44. It’s Frank Luntz here.

    In response to Lyn Rees, I was NOT a member of the Bullington at Oxford. I didn’t even know what it was.

    And I was NOT at Oxford when Cameron was there. I finished my D.Phil. from the U.S. the year he arrived. The first time we met was AFTER his election as Conservative leader.

    Please, get your facts straight so that I don’t have to correct you in public and you don’t embarrass yourself in private.

  45. Thanks Frank,

    I think that puts the final nail in that particular claim.

  46. It looks like the polls are stabilising again with the Tories on 40% and Labour say 28% and Lib Dems on 18%. I still believe that the Tories are set for victory and in fairness I believe the gap will increase again. Whilst Gordon Brown has had some better news on the economy over recent weeks, try telling that to the 1700 workers of Chorus on Teeside. Not sure they would agree.

  47. @ Graham – I have just checked the predictions on Electoral Calculus again and they come out at 30 and 66 seats as before. Not sure why the predictor on this site should be different?

  48. ‘Many people simply will not vote for a right wing party, etc.’

    Admittedly times are different from how they were 30 years ago, but I remember in 1978 where I worked, the consensus of opinion was ‘Heaven help us if Maggie Thatcher wins the next election’. The Conservatives were seen as very right-wing then, Jim Callaghan was considerably more popular than his government…but enough people voted in May 1979 to throw Labour out.

    Twenty years later, people were saying Blair had made Labour very right-wing, but he went on to win two more elections. (Ken Clarke, probably the most popular leader the Tories never had, was once quoted as saying he saw himself to the left of Blair).

    If the Conservatives became more Eurosceptic, they’d lose votes to Lab/Lib Dem, but would they gain enough Con/UKIP waverers to compensate? Possibly.

  49. Frank Luntz ,the impression given in several media sources is that you were at Oxford with Boris Johnson and David Cameron.Did you mastermind Boris Johnson’s campaign for the presidency of the Union? I find it hard to believe that prior to your Newsnight focus group coup in 2005 you had not met Cameron.As the Bullingdon is a private club then commentators who mention it must be wrong in your case. Please accept my apology for this mistake.I still think you were far too partisan on Andrew Neil’s programme. You need to be neutral.