I am of the view that Inverness is one we can win, although it wll be a tough fight.

Like all LibDems Danny Alexander has done a good job of working on his personal vote, mainly by promising to campaign for someone else to pay for what various interest groups want.

Having said that people up here are starting to lose patience with the Libdems as their national irrelevance is starting to tell. In addition in John finnie we have a first class and popular candidate and i am not just saying that because he’s my boss….

Peter.

I certainly didn’t suggest that Argyll was anything but tight. What I said was that the Conservative will be second.

Everything depends firstly on how many votes the LibDem loses and secondly how these break between Con and SNP. I wouldn’t bet on who comes first, but I would bet on the Conservative still being in second place.

The LibDem MP Alan Reid does not make a big impact (either to his advantage or not). His USP is that he is not a Tory and not Labour. The SNP is an increasingly popular brand with the same sales pitch as the LibDems.

We know that LibDems in Scotland are losing a significant part of their former support to the SNP but also that incumbent LibDem MP’s in rural areas are less affected by adverse swings than other LibDem candidates. On the other hand Argyll and Bute is the least rural of the LibDem held Highland constituencies and the loss of the MSP has exposed the fact that (Iraq apart) the issues people are most concerned about are devolved and it is now more obvious that the MP’s involvement in these issues has been subidiary to that of the MSP.

That suggests that the LibDem vote is soft, and we know that the SNP appears to benefit most from LibDem losses. The Labour vote can hardly be squeezed more.

There is no reason to suppose that in Argyll or anywhere else there is an increase in support for Conservative ideas

In 2005 Alan Reid was concerned about a possible increase in the Conservative vote. He need not have been, the Conservative share of the vote fell marginally and I see no reason why it should not fall again also very marginally. That’s because I suspect that the loss is due to the grim reaper rather than any swing in favour of other parties.

Those who vote positively in favour of a party which promotes policies and principles that they believe in are not the ones who switch from one election to another.

Any dissatisfied former Labour voters will either support the LibDem or the SNP candidates. They will certainly not vote Conservative. There won’t be many, because Labour have few voters to lose.

Those who vote LibDem because they are best placed to defeat Labour have a choice. There is no chance that by deserting the LibDems that they will let in Labour. Those who vote against Con or Lab+Con also have a choice, but the risk that by voting SNP, the Conservative will win is smaller than one might suppose.

That is because the LibDem would have to lose a tenth of his current vote to be unsuccessful, and even if 30% of that went to the Con and the rest to the SNP
the SNP would still in.

If the LibDem loses fewer than a tenth of his votes, then he will still be the MP, but that is not certain.

What is clear is that if he does lose that many the proportion which goes to the Con is unlikely to be as much as 30% because anti-Labour voters who previously voted LibDem and were prepared to contemplate returning a Conservative had the opportunity to vote Conservative in the past (and probably did) without any fear of Labour getting in.

Those who voted LibDem previoously because they dislike the SNP should stick with the LibDem rather than vote Conservative.

One will we be viewed as a total disgrace, one will be viewed as starting freedoms for oppressed nations.

Your choice…

When was the last time the Tory lead over Labour in England was 20% (much less 25%)?

As far as I am aware MORI are the only pollsters to publish England only data – and that for only 2 or 3 months.

Thanks for suggesting that Scotland is irrelevant to the UK btw! Some of us have been saying that for a long time.