Comments on: Angus Reid show the Tory lead at 17

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:46:14 +0000

The Angus Reid figures for the North (with a small base of 400) were as follows, comparisons with 2005 election:

C – 31% (+3%)
Lab – 28% (-18%)
LD – 23% (+2%)
UKIP – 8% (+6%)
BNP – 8% (+6%)
Green – 2% (+1%)
Others 0% – (-1%)

I assume these figures refer to the three regions of North West, North East, Yorkshire & The Humber.

By: Don't-tell-em-pike

Don't-tell-em-pike — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 09:15:31 +0000

A bit biased in our interpretation aren’t we GRAHAM? you are ready to accect the Torie rating of being below 40% yet happy to ‘guess-ti-mate’ Labour being 28-32%.

There is no credible evidence to suggest that Labour’s support is presently over 30%

By: david p

david p — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 23:48:39 +0000

Don’t forget that Harriet Harmon’s Equality Bill is likely to become law. It will alienate Labour’s core support still further.
About Cameron remember that Tory leaders are seldom personally popular. When the electorate invest their hopes and dreams in a party leader he is always Labour. However the Tories do sometimes win.

By: Graham

Graham — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 22:29:07 +0000

I think Mark M has it about right. 5 of the last 7 polls put the Tories under 40% (after 12 years of Labour government and with the Murdoch empire squarely behind them). Labour at 22% is way out of line with everything else. 28-32% is currently a reasonable GE range for Labour and it may well get better. Cameron’s been rumbled. Tory-Lib Dem coalition is on the cards and Lib Dem civil war bound to follow. Put your money on a Milliband led government in 2012 while you can still get good odds.

By: don't-tell-em-pike

don't-tell-em-pike — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:39:23 +0000

Incidently, has there ever been any study to correlate the party membership numbers with GE results? for example the fewer activists canvessing the lower the result?

if this is the case, where would it leave the present parties standing?

By: don't-tell-em-pike

don't-tell-em-pike — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:27:53 +0000

AW
is there any further news on that Comres poll? I have checked the website but ‘ All is quiet on the western front’.

Maybe the ‘Independant’ is waiting for a better set of results…

By: Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:34:23 +0000

Plus leaving it until then will smack of desparation – also holding it too early will provoke cries of running scared from the April economic figures.

That’s why May 6th is the most likely date.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:54:03 +0000

David P,

June 4th is legally possible, but politically impossible unless Brown is determined to destroy his party.

That is because the local elections will happen on 6th May across practically all of England (but not Scotland or Wales). The idea that Brown can ask his battered and bankrupt party to fight two national election campaigns one after another may appeal to some, but most reasonable people (including those on Labour’s National Exec.) would consider this suicidal for the second election.

It has nothing to do with polling, it is about finance and activist morale. If in doubt, look at what happened to Labour in the 1992 Council elections, and before that, in the 1983 and 1987 General Elections.

By: GRI

GRI — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:25:25 +0000

Andy Stidwill

Coventry currently has a Conservative City Council (just) and is likely to have 1 if not 2) Conservative MPs out of the 3 current Labour ones.

By: Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:09:46 +0000

It has been speculated that the most likely day is going to be May 6th but there has been recent speculation that it could occur as early as March 25th.

I would be surprised if it was called in June.