After the six point lead from Ipsos MORI, we now have a 17 point lead from Angus Reid. The topline figures, as I mentioned in my brief post below, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 22%(-2), LDEM 21%(+1). Others are unchanged on 18%. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so it is the first proper post-Queens speech poll.

The changes from Angus Reid’s last poll are all quite minor, showing a small shift away from Labour but nothing to get excited about. It does, of course, contrast sharply with MORI’s poll, particularly in terms of the level of Labour support.

Angus Reid are just entering UK polling so we don’t have a long track record to judge them by, but looking at their methodology I would expect them to have a tendency to show higher levels of Conservative and Lib Dem support and lower Labour support. I mentioned in my posts on MORI about “false recall”, people’s tendency to inaccurately report how they actually voted in 2005, and that ICM, Populus and ComRes all factor this into their weighting targets. AngusReid do not, implying no false recall at all, and the effect of this is that they weight the Conservatives and Lib Dems slightly higher and Labour slightly lower (though before people get carried away, it is pretty minor). From their three UK polls so far, they also seem to have a tendency to report significantly higher levels of support for minor parties than any of the other pollsters (though ComRes showed a similar figure in their last poll) – I can see no obvious methodological reason to explain the difference.

The bottom line is that on the short track record and methodology details we have I’d expect Angus Reid to show Labour a bit lower than companies like ICM and YouGov, so this poll is pretty much in line with the average Conservative lead still being somewhere around 13 or 14 points.

UPDATE: Forgot to say, we are also due a ComRes poll for the Independent… but not tonight. Presumably we can expect it later in the week.


77 Responses to “Angus Reid show the Tory lead at 17”

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  1. I took the latest opinon poll with the Tory Lead down to 6% with a pinch of salt. I think this was a freak poll maybe carried out in Middlesborough Central possibly? I believe that the Tories still have a comfortable lead and Labour pretty much need a Tory slip up of almighty proportions to turn it around. if anything I think the lead of 12% is more realistic and between 14-17% wouldnt surprise me. I know many people who voted Labour last time and wont be this time.

  2. … can’t say I blame em’

  3. Jack

    I like you are really looking forward to election night. However, I think you may be disappointed. By the way I thought Lib Dems were past masters at touchy feely politicians and not the Tories. Thats why many people dont take the Lib Dems seriously. Dont be surprised if the Lib Dems dont get wiped out South of the Midlands.

    I agree with Dont-Tell-em-Pike many people who were UKIP will vote Tory (me being one of them) thats because theres not much point to UKIP now and not sure they have the necessary policies to run the country. Sorry Jack!!

  4. That’s good. The papers were full of that poll showing Labour over 30%,and talk of a hung parliament. I thought it was rubbish but couldn’t prove it. This seems to show it was a rouge poll as I thought.

  5. On Political Betting they’ve got the regional breakdowns of this poll, which can’t be properly relied on because of small sample size, but maybe they give some kind of estimate of how things are.

    Once again in looks like Labour are heading for meltdown in the Midlands. They’re on 18% in the Midlands/Wales category, and since Wales is still better than average for Labour they must be on about 15% in the Midlands which is about 25% lower than the last election. Labour would lose seats like Cannock Chase and Stoke South on that basis.

  6. I visit the Midlands regularly on business, it used to be the workshop of the world, now it is an industrial wasteland. A natural Labour heartland has become a Tory opportunity, in the pubs and clubs of Wolverhampton and Bilston they are disillusioned with Nulabour and will vote Conservative. I was there last week and I met no-one who would vote Labour, almost all said they felt let down by London centric Labour wine drinkers, a complete turnaround from 3 years ago when Nu labour still had traction. My Labour friends have had enough and are depressed by the spin and bull from the Government, get up there and check it out, it’s a complete change in politics.

  7. I wonder whether any of the polling companies might be interested in doing some special polling in the Midlands in seats for example such as Cannock Chase, Stoke South or Wolverhampton NE which should be safe for Labour but if these indications from various polls are correct could be in danger of falling to the Conservatives. It does seem as if Labour is doing particularly badly in the region. There was evidence of this in the Euro elections where in the West Midlands Labour could only poll 17% in a region which includes areas which are usually pretty strong for Labour such as Birmingham, Coventry, West Bromwich, Stoke, etc.

  8. King Harold/BENM

    “I wonder what the rationale is behind a less favorable veiw on independence but a strong hardening of Labour support. In other words the future holds two countries joined by act of union, one Tory, the other Labour. It sounds as if David Cameron will be a hate figure north of the border and people like me will be demanding English independence.”

    Independence is not much changed and is detatched from elections or the perception of the performance of the Scottish government. People can vote for an SNP government – and they have at least four ministers who are outstanding, one who is sub-standard and most of the rest seem to be above competent – without the least thought about independence.

    The SNP have put the case for independence for years and failed to convince. That is not new.

    There is no reason – yet – to suppose DC is or will become a hate figure. Certainly compared with Thatcher or Blair he has a long way to go.

    “Heir to Blair” was a good start, but he hasn’t kept it up. I don’t think he is sufficiently ignorant, careless or stupid to manage to get hated without actually trying.

    If you do get independence, I hope you get a parliament as good as ours and a government (as Christian Schmit said of the SNP on these pages) of “bog standard competent government and a few minor gimmicks” . That’s such an improvement when you think what we have had in the last 20 years.

  9. This site is very bias towards the smaller parties !!! Why is it that the editors fail to mention the % of UKIP or the BNP for example ?

  10. Lucy-just now it’s biased towards the SNP!

    Roll on the next UK Westminster poll.

  11. @KEN
    I agree with you regarding the midlands voting intentions.
    Perhaps I am off key here but I feel the Brummies vote with their brains as well as their hearts. Indeed, they don’t seem as tied to tribal instinct as northeners and Scots.

  12. @JOHN B DICK
    I find Scottish politics more and more interesting, probably because I have no idea how the voters minds work.
    Your remarks about Camerons current standing are interesting.
    Does his background not count against him hugely in Scotland ?
    Of course when one tells the average English/Welsh leftie ranter that Blair went to Fettes, they think its an Edinburgh Comprehensive. On that subject, I had no idea that Blair was as widely loved as Thatcher in Scotland. You are filling gaps in my education.

  13. Oh dear Jack,

    delusion has always been popular amongst most Labour voters i meet, but you are stretching it to new levels.
    To suggest there is no way that the Conservatives can win a majority shows very little knowledge of our system.
    Why is it as well that Labour voters always seem to believe the only way the Tories can get in power is if swathes of disgruntled lefties fall at their feet to lend them their support?
    The voters in the marginal seats in Britain still at heart consider themselves as conservative( although probably with a small ‘c’.)
    There is time for events to occur that might prevent the Conservatives from obtaining an overall majority, but other than the odd rogue poll there is no evidence to suggest that is going to happen.

  14. I can see where the discrepancy in these figures is.

    The MIdlands regional split is all over the place. If the Tories are on 45pc and Labour 18pc there I’ll eat my hat!

    As I said, I reckon Labour in high 20s, Tories just under 40s with the lead around 10pc-ish and falling.

  15. Jack – Sorry, but thats just total rubbish.
    Labour are finished and well deserved too!
    Its time for a change just like in 1979 & 1997 – Sorry but thats a fact unless there is a massive upset the Conservatives will win a good working majority AND they don’t need Scottish seats to win either.
    England is basically Tory as you will find out next May!

  16. @ Jack

    Labour hardliners are just as likely to vote BNP as Tories. And as for UKIP, disgruntled Tories may vote for them in the Euro Elections but come the General election they will have the choice of voting Tory or voting UKIP and putting Brown back in No 10 for 5 more years. What do you think will happen?

    I agree that pollsters may be baffled come Election Night but I suspect it won’t be for the resons you think.

  17. Funny everybody’s talking about the election in May, but it doesn’t have to happen until the 4th June.

  18. It has been speculated that the most likely day is going to be May 6th but there has been recent speculation that it could occur as early as March 25th.

    I would be surprised if it was called in June.

  19. Andy Stidwill

    Coventry currently has a Conservative City Council (just) and is likely to have 1 if not 2) Conservative MPs out of the 3 current Labour ones.

  20. David P,

    June 4th is legally possible, but politically impossible unless Brown is determined to destroy his party.

    That is because the local elections will happen on 6th May across practically all of England (but not Scotland or Wales). The idea that Brown can ask his battered and bankrupt party to fight two national election campaigns one after another may appeal to some, but most reasonable people (including those on Labour’s National Exec.) would consider this suicidal for the second election.

    It has nothing to do with polling, it is about finance and activist morale. If in doubt, look at what happened to Labour in the 1992 Council elections, and before that, in the 1983 and 1987 General Elections.

  21. Plus leaving it until then will smack of desparation – also holding it too early will provoke cries of running scared from the April economic figures.

    That’s why May 6th is the most likely date.

  22. AW
    is there any further news on that Comres poll? I have checked the website but ‘ All is quiet on the western front’.

    Maybe the ‘Independant’ is waiting for a better set of results…

  23. Incidently, has there ever been any study to correlate the party membership numbers with GE results? for example the fewer activists canvessing the lower the result?

    if this is the case, where would it leave the present parties standing?

  24. I think Mark M has it about right. 5 of the last 7 polls put the Tories under 40% (after 12 years of Labour government and with the Murdoch empire squarely behind them). Labour at 22% is way out of line with everything else. 28-32% is currently a reasonable GE range for Labour and it may well get better. Cameron’s been rumbled. Tory-Lib Dem coalition is on the cards and Lib Dem civil war bound to follow. Put your money on a Milliband led government in 2012 while you can still get good odds.

  25. Don’t forget that Harriet Harmon’s Equality Bill is likely to become law. It will alienate Labour’s core support still further.
    About Cameron remember that Tory leaders are seldom personally popular. When the electorate invest their hopes and dreams in a party leader he is always Labour. However the Tories do sometimes win.

  26. A bit biased in our interpretation aren’t we GRAHAM? you are ready to accect the Torie rating of being below 40% yet happy to ‘guess-ti-mate’ Labour being 28-32%.

    There is no credible evidence to suggest that Labour’s support is presently over 30%

  27. The Angus Reid figures for the North (with a small base of 400) were as follows, comparisons with 2005 election:

    C – 31% (+3%)
    Lab – 28% (-18%)
    LD – 23% (+2%)
    UKIP – 8% (+6%)
    BNP – 8% (+6%)
    Green – 2% (+1%)
    Others 0% – (-1%)

    I assume these figures refer to the three regions of North West, North East, Yorkshire & The Humber.

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