Comments on: And at the other extreme

By: oldnat

oldnat — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:36:08 +0000

Paul McLennan

Nothing yet on their website other than an op-ed article, that the end of the world has come for the SNP. Prof Curtice on Newsnicht suggesting that Lab/SNP percentages are back similar to 2005. I’m waiting to see the detail to see how accurate these are.

By: Colin MK2

Colin MK2 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:35:59 +0000

@Pete B

“The hardcore Labour vote is 28%
I think you are right some ducks might vote for Christmas but turkeys never.

By: Paul McLennan

Paul McLennan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:31:49 +0000

Poll out in the Daily Telegraph Tuesday re Scottish Voting intentions – any update?

By: Charles Stuart

Charles Stuart — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:08:11 +0000

“Realistically, how likely is it that Labour is going to from 29% to 22% in a week?”

Very unlikely, particularly as there have been no sensational political events. However, Labour could quite easily go from 26% to 25% or from 27% to 24% and this would keep both ICM and Angus Reid within their error margins.

By: Danny Boy

Danny Boy — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:01:47 +0000

Imtiaz Kabir,
Labour’s hardcore vote is 28%. Michael Foot got that in 1983.
So why automatically assume an equally useless, dithering, unpopular leader is going to fare as much as 4% better?
As Graham points out the ‘others’ now make up a far bigger proportion of voters than in 1983.
You also state that even disgruntled Labour voters will turn out in the end.
If they do not fall into the true ‘core vote’ category, they might not be intending to do any such thing.
I still believe it is a serious uphill task to poll 31-32% for Labour, they need a few events working in their favour or my money is on 27-28%.

By: Graham

Graham — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:52:53 +0000

Realistically, how likely is it that Labour is going to from 29% to 22% in a week?

By: Philip JW

Philip JW — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:44:16 +0000

I don’t wish to show off, but I don’t find these polls confusing.

After the by-election win by Labour they enjoyed a brief boost. But the ICM poll which showed Labour to be on 29 was much more accurate.

The ‘in your constituency’ part of the Angus voting intention poll does actually make a difference. It encourages people to think about their tactical options, something that is likely to happen when the day comes. For this reason it seems to me that Labour’s situation is even more serious than the Yougov polls have suggested in recent months.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:35:16 +0000

When most people (me included) make predictions we often can’t help being influenced by what we’d like to happen. But as Diversity points out when people are betting their hard-earned money on outcomes they tend to be more dispassionate and therefore more accurate. That’s why the betting markets are usually pretty good at predicting results. I know the Iowa Electronic Markets have been very good at predicting American elections.

By: Graham

Graham — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:34:07 +0000

Colin,
In so far as that is true I suspect it is by accident rather than design – though the lead is very much at the higher end of the recent range of findings. It does not seem too far out in respect of the likely Tory % share at the moment, but it is giving Labour a rating just over 55% ot the Tory share whilst ICM put it at nearly 70%.

By: Al J

Al J — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:25:42 +0000

Gosh It can get confusing!!