Comments on: And at the other extreme

By: oldnat

oldnat — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:36:08 +0000

Paul McLennan

Nothing yet on their website other than an op-ed article, that the end of the world has come for the SNP. Prof Curtice on Newsnicht suggesting that Lab/SNP percentages are back similar to 2005. I’m waiting to see the detail to see how accurate these are.

By: Colin MK2

Colin MK2 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:35:59 +0000

@Pete B

“The hardcore Labour vote is 28%
I think you are right some ducks might vote for Christmas but turkeys never.

By: Paul McLennan

Paul McLennan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:31:49 +0000

Poll out in the Daily Telegraph Tuesday re Scottish Voting intentions – any update?

By: Charles Stuart

Charles Stuart — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:08:11 +0000

“Realistically, how likely is it that Labour is going to from 29% to 22% in a week?”

Very unlikely, particularly as there have been no sensational political events. However, Labour could quite easily go from 26% to 25% or from 27% to 24% and this would keep both ICM and Angus Reid within their error margins.

By: Danny Boy

Danny Boy — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:01:47 +0000

Imtiaz Kabir,
Labour’s hardcore vote is 28%. Michael Foot got that in 1983.
So why automatically assume an equally useless, dithering, unpopular leader is going to fare as much as 4% better?
As Graham points out the ‘others’ now make up a far bigger proportion of voters than in 1983.
You also state that even disgruntled Labour voters will turn out in the end.
If they do not fall into the true ‘core vote’ category, they might not be intending to do any such thing.
I still believe it is a serious uphill task to poll 31-32% for Labour, they need a few events working in their favour or my money is on 27-28%.