Comments on: Labour’s private polling update!

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:41:22 +0000

Dan – following the London mayoral election MORI carried out a significant methodological review to find out what went wrong. They made two significant changes on the back of it – firstly they shifted from face-to-face to telephone polling, secondly they started weighting by public or private sector employment.

It would not be fair to judge them on polls conducted before those corrections.

By: Dan

Dan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:38:24 +0000

The MORI POLL 6 days before the London Mayor Election…

Mayoral Voting Intention – First preference

Johnson 38 (%) Livingstone 41 (%)

Ipsos MORI/Unison 24/04/08

I rest my case

By: Generalfeldmarschall

Generalfeldmarschall — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:03:56 +0000

James Macintyre is a pup.

By: Larry Stewart

Larry Stewart — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:36:21 +0000

It is not inconceivable that Brown’s poll rating has lifted a little. He has been on TV news on a daily basis since the Conservative conference.
In contrast, until the last couple of days, Cameron has been on one of his famous disappearing tricks.
I wonder where he goes ?

By: Mark Johnson - Chadderton - Lancashire

Mark Johnson - Chadderton - Lancashire — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:21:25 +0000

Thats more like it-lol
Although AR is quite a bit different than all the others!!

By: COLIN

COLIN — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:45:43 +0000

All those agonised comments of the last few days about hung parliaments & constitutional niceties.!

I’ve decided Mori was wrong.
It was the one out of line with what went before-and what came after.

You have to believe in something solid or you’re mentally dashing all over the place.

Cameron has a lead of ten points minimum / fifteen points maximimum & it’s pretty stable & has been for some time now.

Polling variations between those two are a combination of slight shifts in opinion & MoE.

Polling variations outside those two are flaws in methodology.

Thats what I’m going to believe.

By: Al J

Al J — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:44:13 +0000

Thanks Andy S

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:41:24 +0000

Al J:

They’ve got a thread running on this poll on the Political Betting website.

By: Sunil Prasannan

Sunil Prasannan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:34:36 +0000

Is Lab down 2 or down 3 on the last Angus Reid?

By: Al J

Al J — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:34:11 +0000

Anthony

Do you have any info on this new poll? Do you know when the survey was undertaken?