Comments on: More on Ipsos MORI’s 6 point lead

By: Liam Curran

Liam Curran — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:06:08 +0000

What I have found, when currently canvassing for Labour on the doorstep, is that there isn’t the hostility towards the party that I remember throughout the 80s.

I think the firming of the Labour vote in this poll would seem to reflect that fact,

By: Dave Lennon

Dave Lennon — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:25:47 +0000

Of course one of the other factors with polls (even, to a lesser extent exit-polls) is how many people lie if they’ve voted for a seemingly unpopular party. Often this can be the encumbent.

The Scottish vote certainly will play a big part this time.

The apathy wich has coloured recent votes may do also, especially if we are subjected to a near 6 month unofficial campaign following the pre-budget report.

I still think the forthcoming GE might be very close indeed, and psephologically very interesting.

By: Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:08:42 +0000

It must have been soul destroying to see the latest Angus Reid poll down at Labour HQ. Just when they thought they might be catching up as well!

By: Danny Boy

Danny Boy — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:56:07 +0000

Chris,
the fact that you suggest Cameron needs to win lots of Glasgow Easts to win the election shows little or no understanding. It would have been equivalent to suggesting in 1997 that Labour neeeded to win lots of Kensington and Chelsea’s for them to get in power.
Cameron’s battleground is not the likes of Glasgow East, its the likes of Dartford,Chorley,Tynemouth and Bolton.
Nobody ignores Labour’s increase in the polls, but when one shows them on 31 then the next on 22 they need to be treated with caution, not used as the fuel for a one sided, unfounded rant.

By: TrevorsDen

TrevorsDen — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:04:58 +0000

Dear Chris

In the by election the labour vote was 12,231, 59%)

In 1997 when the seat was Glasgow Springburn, Martin polled 22,534, 71% .

So your contention about Labour increasing its vote seems a little wide of the mark.