I think the firming of the Labour vote in this poll would seem to reflect that fact,

The Scottish vote certainly will play a big part this time.

The apathy wich has coloured recent votes may do also, especially if we are subjected to a near 6 month unofficial campaign following the pre-budget report.

I still think the forthcoming GE might be very close indeed, and psephologically very interesting.

In the by election the labour vote was 12,231, 59%)

In 1997 when the seat was Glasgow Springburn, Martin polled 22,534, 71% .

So your contention about Labour increasing its vote seems a little wide of the mark.

But we need real growth and we need to rebalance (a good labour spin word there for you) our spending.

Brown has been saying we need growth you say? That growth is the answer?

Well why, despite ‘growth’, then did Brown run deficits every year since 2001 after he stopped sticking to Tory spending plans? We have a massive structural deficit. Growth alone will not fill that gap, which is why Cameron also talks about spending.

As by now you will know – we have a new poll putting labour on 22 and a tory lead of 17. You are the clever one; go figure.

“Citing “growth” and not cuts.”

You do live in a very one dimensional world Cris.
The two are not incompatible.

Indeed if you believe-as Cameron does-, that defict financing can be inimical to real sustainable economic growth, then you prefer-as he does-incentives to employment in the private sector to unproductive expenditure in the State sector.

It’s a balance Chris-not one or the other.

By the way-seen the latest poll?
Confusing isn’t it when you’ve just got all excited.

Any Labour gains in polls are either:

1: Ignored by the media, until they change back
2: The media say there’s something wrong with the poll

Every tory drop since conference season, people have blamed the poll it’s in. Including this web site.

It seems that tory gains are just “normal”, but Labour gains “it’s the poll!”.

Personally, if you are canvassing, and looking at the political forums on newspapers, I think it’s personally obvious that the tories polling is going nowhere but down.

Like it or not, they’ve been shown up on the credit crunch. Cameron is in the media today telling us all that backing “growth” is actually the way out. What Brown has been saying for nigh on 2 years.

Europe was a clanger. If you read the forums you would have seen a huge majority of irate tories, thinking they’ve been sold out, and vowing to head to UKIP.

Like it or not, the lack of real accountable policy is still hurting them. Cameron can laugh all he wants about Labour policy, when Brown can just chirp back “what are you actually going to do?”.

Personally, I can quite easily see that when your campaign is built on sand foundations, it won’t take much to knock it down.

No matter how much they hate a leader (see Maggie Thatcher) they will always stick with the status quo, if the opposition hasn’t convinced them that they are up to it themselves.

Continued growth in the future, will do nothing but hurt Cameron. As he’s been the one in the last 2 years, telling us all about how cuts are the only option. And how Brown has been lying to us all about being able to ride growth.

Well Dave, if the economy does have a big rise, cuts are the political equivilant of retiring your prize greyhound after his 10 wins in a row, as you don’t want to risk wasting £20 on food, in case he doesn’t win 11.

So we have Dave in the media, backing growth, and going off the “age of austerity approach”.

The polls will always fluctuate as no one has a clue what Cameron is, and what he plans to do.

The more he flip flops, the more faith will drop.

I think the tories will win, but this claims about going into a election with a 13 point poll lead are wrong.

I’d be amazed if it wasn’t closer to 7 or 8 points. As your poll suggests.

1 It is a rogue poll
2 It is a rogue poll
3 It is a rogue poll

Just thought of another

4 It is a rogue poll

”

Is that the hands over ears “nanananan it’s not happening” approach.

This poll is quite climatic of the tory overall drops in most polls in the last few months.

The big one may have stayed the same, but they’ve lost ground to Labour on many major sub topics.

I think the tories will be very worried. As there poll lead certainly isn’t growing.

An intelligent view will suggest that it will probably shrink a fair bit before now and then.

Watch Cameron in the news, basically now backing Labour’s approach to deficiet.

Citing “growth” and not cuts.

That’s a man who’s realised that things could possibly be turning

”

There’s no wat the LD will be in parliament wit the tories.

Their principles, manifestos and policies are polls apart.

They are much more likely to get their way with the Labour party.

Clegg will tell the media he won’t side with Labour, as they won’t want to be tarred with their brush.

But I assure you, they will when it counts