Comments on: Ipsos MORI show smallest Tory lead since 2008

By: davey

davey — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:15:21 +0000

Political betting has noted an Angus Reid poll showing Tories 17 points clear and Lib dems only 1 point behind labour.

Another blip or the true story?

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:03:21 +0000

Pete B,

That is precisely why I and many others have always challenged the commonly held, but still misguided, view that voters swing back to the Government as an election apporaches.

If you go back even further than Kevin did, you will see that there has been a consistent pattern of a shift to Cons, whomever is in government.

Of course one cannot assume it will happen again, nor is there any consistency in the amplitude of swing.

By: Pete B

Pete B — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:18:43 +0000

Re: Kevin Hawkins (12:26pm) figures of changes in votes from 6 months before the election to the actual election:

If those figures are correct, it is interesting that every single one back to 1987 shows a movement to the Tories in the last 6 months before a GE!

I know that history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but I still found this very noteworthy.

By: john tt

john tt — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:07:44 +0000

M
Re Sky News. A shift towards New Labour is to be expected strategically for the simple reason that they need their co-operation when it comes to televised debates. Brown could easily say no to a channel as biased as their owner, and go instead for BBC,ITV,C4 &/or C5.

Murdoch is clearly a Republican and for him closer EU ties would be a threat to his football (ie profit) business. Therefore, a gratreful Tory Govt is his goal.

By: Al J

Al J — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:00:28 +0000

Alec

I’ve read all your posts above and found them carefully thought out and interesting analysis.
I actually agree with you and you’ve made some good points.

I look forward to further polls and more comments from you as we get nearer to the GE.