Comments on: Ipsos MORI show smallest Tory lead since 2008

By: davey

davey — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:15:21 +0000

Political betting has noted an Angus Reid poll showing Tories 17 points clear and Lib dems only 1 point behind labour.

Another blip or the true story?

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:03:21 +0000

Pete B,

That is precisely why I and many others have always challenged the commonly held, but still misguided, view that voters swing back to the Government as an election apporaches.

If you go back even further than Kevin did, you will see that there has been a consistent pattern of a shift to Cons, whomever is in government.

Of course one cannot assume it will happen again, nor is there any consistency in the amplitude of swing.

By: Pete B

Pete B — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:18:43 +0000

Re: Kevin Hawkins (12:26pm) figures of changes in votes from 6 months before the election to the actual election:

If those figures are correct, it is interesting that every single one back to 1987 shows a movement to the Tories in the last 6 months before a GE!

I know that history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but I still found this very noteworthy.

By: john tt

john tt — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:07:44 +0000

M
Re Sky News. A shift towards New Labour is to be expected strategically for the simple reason that they need their co-operation when it comes to televised debates. Brown could easily say no to a channel as biased as their owner, and go instead for BBC,ITV,C4 &/or C5.

Murdoch is clearly a Republican and for him closer EU ties would be a threat to his football (ie profit) business. Therefore, a gratreful Tory Govt is his goal.

By: Al J

Al J — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:00:28 +0000

Alec

I’ve read all your posts above and found them carefully thought out and interesting analysis.
I actually agree with you and you’ve made some good points.

I look forward to further polls and more comments from you as we get nearer to the GE.

By: Al J

Al J — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:44:37 +0000

King H Thanks for the reply.

Anthony W

Can I just say, it’s a wonderful thing you’ve done on this site. I’ve always been interested in polls and now all I need do is switch on the info. Thanks a bundle;-)

By: james

james — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:09:30 +0000

The OECD report has the UK unemployment rate going from 7.8 percent and to 9.5 percent by 2011. Also the BDO report has 2.75 million unemployed by november of 2010.

I think the august to september downgrade was a blip because unemployment is usally a lagging indicator. Granted reports earlier in the year had projections as high as 3.4 million unemployed at the peak.

U.S grew last quarter at 3.5 percent and 82 percent of the people still think the economy is poor because jobs are still being lost. It’s curious that the UK lost growth in the third quarter and the view is so much more optimistic when you can argue the recovery has been better in the U.S. I guess you guys have a better attitude.

By: Graham

Graham — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:48:35 +0000

James,
On the ILO basis , the headline unemployment figure rose by 30,000 in the 3 months to September but actually fell by 10,000 in the 1 month August to September from 2.47 million to 2.46 million.
The claimant count continued to rise by 13,000 August to September.

By: james

james — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:33:02 +0000

Unemployment isn’t going to peak until 2011. How much benefit can you possibly get when the unemployment is still rising for the next 6 months.

By: Ronnie

Ronnie — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:59:34 +0000

@AW
Many thanks – Im new to this world ………… it seems a pretty excitable world today, especially for some people of a particular party political view …….who have hit the jitters.