There is a new(ish) Ipsos MORI poll in the Observer. The topline figures, with changes from MORI’s previous poll in mid-October, are CON 37%(-6), LAB 31%(+5), LDEM 17%(-2).

The poll was actually conducted last weekend at the same time as ICM’s Guardian poll, prior to the Queen’s speech, David Curry’s expenses accusations and the recent floods (before anyone suggests any of them might have contributed to it!). In ICM’s case the lead shrunk, but the Tory vote actually stayed the same, and the effect was to bring ICM in line with the sort of figures all the other pollsters were showing. This poll is clearly very different – it shows a 6 point collapse in Conservative support and represents by far the lowest Conservative lead for almost a year.

As ever, I would urge extreme caution on any poll showing a large shift in voting intention, especially where there is no obvious reason for a large, short term movement. Until we get the tables we can’t dig around to see exactly what is behind the movement, and until we find another poll supporting this shift, I wouldn’t get too excited/paniced (depending on your point of view!)


124 Responses to “Ipsos MORI show smallest Tory lead since 2008”

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  1. I’m sure the last time I used the swingometer a few weeks ago the LD vote was correctly set at 22.7%.

  2. I think this has a lot to do with the Sun row! I am a student but work part time in a large shop that sells newspapers in a strong tory area (ken clarkes constituency to be exact), and in the last two weeks around 15% to 25% of sun newspapers have been left on the shelves. Before they used to sell out and the daily mirror was left – this has now changed round. I think the sun has shot itself in the foot

  3. I don’t see how Brown gets credit for the econmy when the UK is the last industrialized economy still in recession and the borrowing this year was 88 times last year far surpassing other countries. France and Germany grew in the second quarter while UK shrunk the the third quarter. The U.S grew at a healthy margin in the third quarter.

    Time for the SUN to stop with their political games as they are no help with the tories.

    Cameron has a big problem with Lisbon in his base. Even though it was Brown who worked to move up the ireland vote to put the tories in this position. Labour promised a referendum and now cameron is getting blamed for it when now that it is law which is unfair.

    Everything about Brown is political mischeif and yet he is getting waves of sympathy lately.

    This is the worst outcome because Brown will stay as PM even if the tories have a lot more seats than him but can’t form a majority.

    That is why it is a myth that the tories are favored in the election. I assume very soon you will see the bookies start to change their predictions. The upset would be for the tories to gain 117 seats not for the tories to gain less and Brown to remain PM.

    Brown for five more years? Labour for five more years going on 18 years? The issue should be about Brown and Labour not about Cameron as the media always makes it about him. I never saw an election when the opposition is such the issue. The opposition was the issue in 2005 as well instead of Blair’s record.

  4. As a psychological point, it’s interesting how a long-established trend is assumed to not continue to the next election (“Labour MUST win back support as the election approaches”) but any change- hypothetical or apparent- is assumed to be fixed until June 2010.

    It’s perfectly possible that Labour might win support back, lose it, regain it, lose it… Volatility is something that cuts both ways.

    And this poll is either a rogue poll or something that is too risky to read anything into without it being substantiated by other polls. In short, this poll is a good way to demarcate the veteran poll-watchers from the neonates.

  5. Anthony, in the rogueish light of this poll, will other pollsters now rush to do their own to find out whether the swing is real or a blip?

  6. @ Bill – “It’s perfectly possible that Labour might win support back, lose it, regain it, lose it… Volatility is something that cuts both ways.”

    Of course it’s possible, but a sudden very large swing without there having been some momentous event to have catalysed it is obviously suspicious. Neither the Glasgow East byelection nor The Sun incident were that sort of event.

  7. Clearly a rogue. Ipsos/Mori have a Standard Deviation of 3 so occasionally they will be nearly 6 points out. They had a similar shocker the other way in Feb that over-estimated the CLead to 5.5 on the WMA – and turned out to be 6 points out on the retrospective.

    The WMA is 40:28:18 and the next poll will almost certainly show a CLead of 12-14 points.

  8. POLL ALERT

    There is a poll reported in the Sunday Times Scotland. No voting intention figures are published, and very oddly the name of the polling firm is omitted! (YouGov are STS’s normal pollster.)

    ‘Nearly half of voters back Scottish public broadcaster’

    “Of the 1,040 people surveyed, 47% said they supported the creation of a Scottish broadcasting service, compared to 18% who were opposed and 35% who were undecided.

    Support is strongest among younger adults and nationalist supporters. More than half of the 25- to 34-year-olds (53%) questioned said the BBC should be replaced by a Scottish broadcaster, although only 37% of 16- to 24-year-olds agreed.”

  9. NBeale
    I think that standard deviations of estimates are pretty meaningless where the “true” values being estimated have short term fluctuations and longer term trends. Theoretically it is quite possible for the method with the largest apparent SD to be in fact tracking the “true” value most accurately. I have no idea whether this is this case, nor perhaps has anybody else.

  10. I do think we should all be a little careful in dismissing this poll as an out and out rogue. As I said earlier, the Labour rise and current level has now been backed up by both the two most recent polls – this is a little harder to dismiss as a rogue, especially when we consider there was better news for Labour immediately prior to these polls being conducted. By contrast, the big drop in Tory support does look odd after such a long and relatively stable period, and I think most people would agree that this would need further evidence before we accept a 6% lead as a true reflection of the situation. However, even here, we now have four polling companies – Angus Reid, Populus, ComRes and Mori – all showing the Tories below 40% in their latest polls. 37% is only one point lower than a poll on 5th November and just a couple of points down on two more recent polls.

    I am often criticised (unfairly on many occasions in my view) for overly biased posts. What we have seen in this thread from many posters is a wilful attempt to selectively ignore some recent polling trends in favour of results that suit people’s political beliefs. There is no point hiding from unpalatable data by crying ‘rogue poll’. While there are elements of this poll that look odd, it seems clear that Tory support has softened and could well now be sub 40% as four from six pollsters have found. Labour’s support is still yoyoing around with the LD’s, but the most recent polls now suggest a figure around 30%. What’s so rogue about that?

  11. It’s Gordon’s GE to lose now.
    Only kidding clearly an outlier, 10-11% lead probably right due to BY-Election and reverse SUN effect (maybe Cammo’s staged photo had an effect as well with a few, drip drip doubts on his sincerity gaining ground perhaps)
    As per Alec this may have already gone back to 12-14% as field work was last weekend.
    Please remeber this poll and mine and Alec’s scepticism when we see a 17 or 18% lead with others at 18% from Angus Reid or somebody else in a few weeks time.
    Tory Lead is 10-15% with Lib Dems just below 20% but we don’t know exactly – who can?

    I remember in late ’91 campaigning for Labour in the Lanbaurgh By-Election which we won but with a much smaller swing than looked probable when the campaign started.
    I spent a lot of time there as was on garden leave between jobs and what happened was that voters for the first time started to imagine a Labour Led Kinnock Government, even in the By-Election, as the GE was only a few months away.
    It led many of us to believe that ’92 would be hung and that we were fighting for the largest party status.
    We all know it was even worse (from my perspetive).
    I think this is happening now and whilst GB’s Labour Government is simillarly unpopular to Major’s Tories in 92 I think Cameron is a better ‘candidate’ than Kinnock but his front bench has Osborne, Gove and Grayling in stead of John Smith, Tony Blair and Robin Cook.
    (Phillip Hammond excellent to be fair and should be shadow chancellor)
    Upshot regardless of historical patterns as the GE’s approach each one is uniquie but 79&92 have the greatest parrallels and IHMO there will be small drift away from the cons. Not enough, probably, to prevent a victory but enough to dispel a land-slide or even good majority.
    Of course an unknown unknown could occcur on either side in the next 6 months.

  12. @ Alec – “I am often criticised (unfairly on many occasions in my view) for overly biased posts. What we have seen in this thread from many posters is a wilful attempt to selectively ignore some recent polling trends in favour of results that suit people’s political beliefs.”

    Oh come on. This poll is a radical departure from all recent polling and nothing has happened recently that would seem to explain a swing of this size. It’s not “selectively ignoring” this poll to regard it as most likely a freak. You’ve only to look at the sidebar panel on this site to see how out of kilter it is.

    Of course if the next two or three polls deliver similar results, that would certainly mark a significant trend. But right now all we have is this poll on its own and its findings are clearly way out of line with other recent polls.

  13. Relax this is great news. I’ve been advising everybody who is polled to say
    they are going to vote Labour.
    A few good polls and GB will be so chuffed he’ll call a snap election and we won’t have to wait until May.

  14. Four of the last six polls show the Conservatives in the high 30’s rather than the 40’s.

    If Labour could find something, anything, to get themselves into the 30’s – this could still be a close General Election.

  15. @James Ludlow – you’ve rather made my point for me. In my post I stated quite clearly that the large drop in Tory support looks odd, and that we need further evidence before we assume a lead of 6% is the true picture. However, I also pointed out that in some ways this poll is not such a radical departure from recent polls as you seem to think. We have 4 from 6 pollsters now finding the Tories under 40%. We have the last two polls finding Labour at around 30%. What we haven’t had, until this poll, are pollsters finding Labour at 30 and the Tories under 40 in the same poll. That could suggest it is a freak, but with the majority of pollsters now putting the Tory support within the range of 37 – 39% I think you should be careful dismissing this poll as a freak.

  16. @ Alec – whether the Tories are marginally under or over 40% isn’t particularly significant. It’s the lead that’s significant. If the Tories were on 35 and Labour on 20, that would still produce a significant Tory majority (with the Other votes presumably being very high, resulting in a ragtag carnival of eccentric MPs from many little parties.

    I appreciate that you’re looking for straws to clutch, and that at times you feel like a drowning man naked in a river of icy Blue water, but you can surely still see that your fingers are reaching for a straw and not a life-raft.

  17. @James – sigh – as I tire of pointing out, while I’m no fan of the Conservatives, I’m also no fan of Brown and the current Labour party. I have no desire to see either of these two parties gain/regain power at the next election. I am not therefore clutching at straws, nor am I drowning in icy water, blue or otherwise. If you actually read my posts, all I am saying is that while the lead in this poll is particularly low, in many ways it fits with the observed trends. The unusual element is that, for the first time this poll put a sub 40 score for the Tories together with a plus 30 for Labour.

    I guess the bigger point I was suggesting is that while many posters here are happy to dismiss a 6 or 10 point lead as an out and out rogue, when we have 17 point leads they seem to be accepted as accurate. I think that’s odd, and betrays a biased view of polling evidence.

    Although I personally believe it would be a bad result for the UK, I’m increasingly beginning to perversely want to see a Gordon Brown victory next May so I trawl through the archives and cut and paste everyone’s comments just for a laugh.

  18. Firstly is this one of those threads where the comments policy is suspended? If not can Craig U and Davey try and control themselves?

    My sense from the last week’s campaigning is that there is a definite turn back in Labour’s direction. I think that the following factors have all helped:

    Cameron’s fake Remembrance day photo-
    The Sun’s attempt to use a bereaved family to hurt the PM
    The Cameron Euro guarantee back track
    Labour’s stunning Glasgow NE by election victory

    Can’t understand why some posters are suggesting that there are no reasons to suggest a move back to Labour.

    I believe that this poll will show itself to be an exageration of the weakness of the Tory position but that 39/30 will probably be about right at the moment, which would still be a huge imporvement on the wipeout polls we were seeing pre conference season, but obviously more polls will tell us more accurately.

    What cant be denied is that Labour are recovering (a little) the Tories are falling (a little) and the Lib dems aren’t benefitting which suggests that Europe could be a significant factor.

    DARE I SAY IT… Game on!!

  19. Oh dear oh dear. How panicked / desperate the Tory supporting comments are on this site (which seems the dominant viewpoint). The vitriol shown by people like Craig U with his personal attack on GB is revealing how desperate some people feel when they see the possibility that democracy will not travel in the direction they would like. Get over it, it’s only 1 poll.

    In the cold light of day maybe this site is really about an analysis of numbers and what may happen to these numbers and why (apologies if this offends the sensitivities of anyone). So my opnion…….

    Only 1 poll does not mean this is the way things will be/are. What should be worrying to the Tories and their supporters is that even at a 10% lead, which seems to be likeliest lead for the Tories at the moment, a hung parliament is very likely, with it being touch and go who will be the largest party.

    You have to recognise that governing parties pick up votes in the near months of a GE and a little during a GE campaign. People’s sense of fairness allows a consideration of the governing party despite an environment of intense anti-government reporting where all that is emphasised are their mistakes and failures (this has been true for decades, so is not a party biased point). So they also remember what they have achieved – which gets prompted by the campaigning of the governing party, and the fact that in the near months/GE campaigning time, people take the time to listen to what they say as they will need to make a decision about them (this isn’t the case for the remaining 4½ years between elections, so more reactionary views are the norm).
    So people start to recognise what the governing party has achieved. People will recognise things like dropping hospital waiting time to 18 weeks from GP to treatment for all conditions (and 2 weeks for the major killers) when there were patients waiting on trolleys in corridors or 18months+ for treatment in 1996 is an achievement. They will also remember that they had schools with leaky roofs and few teachers in 1996 and now see their school building has improved as has the number of teachers teaching in them as an achievement.

    They will see this in the context of all the criticisms that have been put on this site, like the government’s poor handling of the expenses situation or their cost orientated view of managing things in Afghanistan, etc……

    So the majority will still be unhappy with the government. However some will give the government credit for what it has done based on the type of things I have mentioned above. A middling minority is all that is needed for there to be a swing of 5% from Tory to Labour during the near months of the GE. 5% is the type of growth many governing parties have seen in the run up to an election over history. On a 10% gap a 5% increase in the Labour vote vs a 5% drop in the Tory vote will make the 2 parties virtually neck and neck. End result is a hung parliament.

    As this site has often explained, equal/similar percentages between the 2 parties in the mid 30s often benefits Labour. I think the current parliament is based on Labour 35.3%, Tories 32.3% giving Labour a 66 seat majority. So a GE result of c35% – 35% could well leave Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament. And I wouldn’t hold out too much hope for a Con-LibDem alliance – it wouldn’t be stomached by huge parts of the LibDem party (they haven’t forgotten or forgiven the last time the Tories were in power, although some have).

    We also have yet to see the level of policy detail from the Tories that the government is required to give, and more importantly the scrutiny it will need to go under. This activity could well also contribute to the 5% swing I mentioned earlier, as some (and again it just needs to be a small proportion of people for the 5% swing) may get turned off the Tories once their policies are subjected to scrutiny.

    For the Tories to feel confident they really need to have leads in the 15% to 20% level consistently.

    It’s just an opinion. Time will tell.

  20. James

    How many chickens you counted so far

    IMO it will be closer than you think. Do you think labour will increase or decrease from the 27% poll of poll result. i know where my money would be, so Conservaties need to stay in high thirties to win

  21. The media, at least, are happy with this poll (based on my straw poll of….. err……Sky News. It’s doom and gloom all the way, with the Conservative lead evaporating and Labour on the comeback trail. I agree with the majority of posters above; we will only really know when the next couple of polls come out. Meanwhile, I’ll dig out my passport just in case……

  22. Well I’ve got my passport handy already incase the bnp win. I can’t trace my lineage back 17,000 years (joke) haha

  23. @TOBY PERKINS
    1) Brown has also been forced to apologise re Remembrance
    Day photo’s
    2) The publics pity is not a vote winner
    3) Cameron had the European rug pulled from under, Brown lied.
    There is a difference.
    4) Labour winning in the East End of Glasgow is not “stunning”
    and signifies nothing as many a Scottish poster here will confirm.

    Listen to Anthony. Don’t get excited.

  24. I would say the floods are bringing out the best in Brown -he does do the ‘I am sympathetic to your plight’ bit very well. (Where is the Queen by the way,isn’t this her job?).Saw David Cameron on BBC today – was rather unpleasantly reminded of Edward Heath when he started banging on about Corporation Tax. I would say Brown’s idea of more health care for the elderly is much more in tune with the public.
    More revelations about the Communist past ot a leading Tory won’t help relations between Tory Central Office and the activists which I suspect are poor.

  25. @ ALEC
    I hear what you are saying regarding willingness to believe a 17 point Tory lead but question a 6 point Tory lead.
    I think the main issue is not we Tory Boys clutching straws, but a lack of understanding as to how the Labour Party can have any support left whatever. Obviously the tribal vote, the Guardian chattering class, plus the long term unemployed/unemployable who bother to vote, will amount to 20 to 24 %. Where figures of 30 plus come from in the light of the last 12 years and particularly the last 2 years, is totally beyond our ability to rationalise.

  26. Semi OT

    Last night Sky News described ukpollingreport.co.uk as a “think tank”. No longer a psephologist, Anthony, you are now a “wonk”. It’s official.

  27. This single poll is creating a much bigger story than it is worth. On the 8 November there were two polls by different companies – one with 9 point tory lead and one with 19 point.

    On the same day as this poll, another had a Tory lead of 13 points.

    On this basis, it seems more like SPIN to try and conjure up some belief that people are willing to support these muppets.

  28. I am new to this site so appologies if I am being naive but on the assumption that the balance of the poll goes to others there is an increase of 3% in the others category since the last IPSOS poll.

  29. @ BigJohn – “IMO it will be closer than you think.”

    As you don’t know what I think, that’s a rather bold claim.

    My view is that, yes, when it comes to the general election we might well see the Labour share rise a few points as disgruntled Labour supporters grudgingly return to Labour rather than give the Tories a free ride. That’s certainly a possibility, though so too is it possible that in 6 months time a proportion of habitual Labour voters is too apathetic to vote at all. Or it may be that we see the polling averages reflected in the general election. Until we get there, no one can be certain exactly what will happen.

    But we are discussing the here-and-now – this poll in the context of other recent polls. And in that context, it’s clearly wildly out of line.

    @ Alec – “I guess the bigger point I was suggesting is that while many posters here are happy to dismiss a 6 or 10 point lead as an out and out rogue, when we have 17 point leads they seem to be accepted as accurate.”

    I don’t think that “many posters here” have in fact accepted 17 point leads as accurate. The common view seems to be that a 12-14 point lead is the most accurate, and that’s certainly my own view. But even if what you are claiming is true, it would be less foolish than putting one’s faith in this single poll – for the simple reason that since early October no less than 5 polls have found a 17 point Tory lead and 1 found a 19 point lead, compared to this single poll returning a 6 point lead.

  30. @WOLF
    I cannot see that “our chum” Eric being a Communist when he was a kid is going to have an Earth shattering consequence.
    Lets face it about 95 % of the Labour front bench were.
    Regarding corporation tax, it is the theft of advanced corporation tax relief which has severly damaged so many peoples pension schemes. This is to a point that only govenment employees enjoy final salary schemes at all. Quite a social injustice I would say, and one which Brown should own up to rather than playing games which suggest he cares.

  31. @King Harold – I think we agree on the relevance of the actual polls. In relation to your other comments, I have said for some time that partisan poll watchers (on all sides) do need to be careful in the way they assess alternative views to their own. There are many genuine people out there who believe that Labour inherited a really bad situation with regard in particular to public services, and that heavy investment has led to vastly improved services etc. There are lots of arguments to be had over whether we got value for money, whether PFI has buried the true costs, whether we should have reigned in spending earlier etc. There are also issues about Brown’s character that many of us feel doubtful of. However, to balance that, there are also issues about Cameron’s character, and as we approach a GE increasing worries in some quarters about Tory policy announcements. For example, two issues that really worry me are the Tories media policy and their belief in directly elected police commissioners – I think both could be disastrous, but that’s only my personal view.

    To throw out a sitting government I suspect that an opposition has to overcome extra barriers of public trust, especially when you have been in opposition for many years. A few people have stated that Cameron in 2010 is not seen in the same light as Blair in 97 and I think that’s true. These are some of the reasons why Labour may see a recovery of some sort as we approach polling day, but let’s never forget Brown’s ability to not just shoot himself in the foot, but blow both his legs off above the knee. I wouldn’t panic just yet.

  32. We are now six months away from the probable date of the next general election. I have looked at what polls were saying at the same point in the last five general elections. The surprising thing is that polls six months ahead of general elections are actually quite a poor indicator of the percentage share on polling day. In four out of the last five elections big swings occurred in the last six months.
    i.e 1987 a Lab lead of around 1.5% turned to a Con lead of 11.4% six months later.
    In 1992 a Lab lead of 2.1% changed to a Con lead of 7.5%
    In 1997 a Lab lead of 23.5% reduced to a Lab lead of 13.0%
    In 2001 a Lab lead of 23.5% reduced to a Lab lead of 9.0%
    The 2005 election was the exception with a Lab lead of 6.0% changing only slightly to a lead of 3.0%.
    (These figures were obtained by averaging the last six polls prior to the date six months before the election).

    I am not naïve enough to suggest that there is some law of nature that says this will happen again this time, but I think it is reasonable to say that as big changes in voting intention in the six months prior to an election happen more often than not there are still grounds for considerable uncertainty.

    I will leave it to others to speculate as to why such changes during the last six months have occurred.

  33. Anthony Wells,

    Unfortunate you chose to be a part of this pathetic coverage on Sky News. Did you get calls from them to come on for the dozens of polls that have been showing the Tories 13-14+ points clear recently?

    Also highly amusing that Launa Dunkley suggested to you that news papers would make more of polls that favour their political view. You decided not to point out that Sky News were doing that very thing with the coverage you were participating in? Or perhaps in the heat of the moment you didnt realise their hypocrisy?

  34. When was the last time Sky News made a point of devoting all that air time to an opinion poll, and making it sound so significant? The last time that I remember was when there was another way-out-of-the ordinary poll. I suspect it was September 30th of +7 to the Tories. Sky made a big deal out of it then too and implied it was far more significant that anyone here knew it was. I guarantee that if the next poll shows +13 there will not be a word uttered about it.

  35. Pace Shopkeeper man, are we posters Wonkers then.
    Had to be careful how I typed that.

  36. @ Alec
    I would not disagree with one word you have said.

  37. M

    You could argue that a string of polls saying the same isn’t news, an outlier is.

    Or perhaps, if you believe Sky has a political objective, this news should scare anti-Labourites into getting out to vote.

    Especially as changes in propensity to vote are as likely to cause shifts in polls as actual shifts of opinion.

  38. My god, this poll is part of Sky’s headlines today? LOL. Wow.

    Also, to Alec, yes biased left wing Keynesian academics (like you) do desperately try to tell people that Labour inherited a terrible situation. Its the only way they can attempt to justify the disastrous financial situation Labour are (as usual) leaving the country in. Its not as if they can any longer credibly claim what a wonderful job Brown is doing to “fight the recession.”

  39. i can confirme that i was called by ipsos mori last week and the iseues of mp’s exspenses came up and mp trustwothy acame up plus normal voting intentions, so yes the poll was done last weekend

  40. “You could argue that a string of polls saying the same isn’t news, an outlier is.”

    Shopkeeper,

    No, I dont think you can argue that at all. And thats my point. One (likely outlier) is very definitely NOT news. Just like the string of polls all saying the same thing is not news.

  41. Bit odd just to focus on Sky’s coverage, the Observer have made it a massive headline. “Poll boost for PM as confidence in economy grows”.

    Needless to say, coming on the same day as the ICM poll which showed no such movement, this feels like an outlier – but Alec’s right to say there’s been an apparent trend towards Labour in recent weeks. They’ve been peppering the 30 mark again which they haven’t done since the early part of this year. It’s no indicator of what might happen long-term though.

  42. “Or perhaps, if you believe Sky has a political objective, this news should scare anti-Labourites into getting out to vote.”

    Shopkeeper,

    I have never thought Sky News had a political objective. Not for the years Ive been watching. At least certainly not a left leaning objective. Although it has always been obvious that certain news readers and reporters have left leaning views, the tone of Sky News overall has never felt left leaning. And it is Murdoch after all so that is not surprising. Especially if you have ever seen Fox News.

    But I have noticed a definite change of tone on Sky News in the last few months. There is definitely a (subtle) anti-Tory feel to me which I dont really understand given Murdoch, the Sun etc. Maybe there has been a change of behind the scenes personnel at Sky News or something.

    Im sitting watching Sky News now and they are doing yet another live segment on it right now! They are really really doing this poll to death. Giving air time to some Labour womans suggestion that this poll reflects a worry about the Tories, when in all likelihood all this poll is is an outlier or a blip from the recent by election coverage. Would anyone here put money on there being many more polls like this showing a continuing trend in the next few days/weeks? I bet not.

  43. M,
    I believe that you are being distinctly unfair to Anthony here.
    Surely the point is that whether or not this poll is a rogue – and it is more than likely to have exaggerated any Labour recovery – it is undoubtedly ‘news’ in that it represents a significant departure from recent trends. If the Tory lead were to settle down at 6 or 7% for a few months and a poll comes along showing a Tory lead of 15%, I think there is every likelihood that that too would be treated by broadcasters as ‘news’ – rogue or not!
    It is also worth bearing in mind that journalists -whether they work for the BBC, SKY or the broadsheets – tend to be far less informed and sophisticated in respect of polls and psephology than many contributors to this site.

  44. “it is undoubtedly ‘news’ in that it represents a significant departure from recent trends.

    Graham,
    Thats an unfortunate view in my opinion. Thats just what makes it not news if you ask me. Three or four within a couple of weeks showing the same thing and then maybe it is news. But one poll? Way out of line with all others? Thats already a week out of date. And with another poll the very same day showing things are “as you were”? No, this reporting is nonsense.

  45. I do agree with others that this new poll is news worthy.
    I also think conversely to other posts that it may give labour supporters new vigour to vote whereas before they may have just given up.

  46. I was contacted by Ipsos Mori well over 2 weeks ago, in fact it might be 3 weeks. This is the first Ipsos Mori voting intention poll since that telephone interview. So how old is it?

  47. @AL J
    Well if you are right the scam has worked.

  48. I rather disagree in that once a trend becomes clearly established it ceases to be’news’. It’s in the nature of journalists to latch on to something that is a little unexpected.They clearly feel that they have a story here – whether it proves to have any substance is a very different matter!

  49. King H
    If you don’t mind me saying, I don’t see any scam. A scam is a type of fraudulant activity. Even if the poll was skewed in some way ( which I don’t believe for a minute) getting people out to vote can’t be called a scam.

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