Ipsos MORI show smallest Tory lead since 2008
There is a new(ish) Ipsos MORI poll in the Observer. The topline figures, with changes from MORI’s previous poll in mid-October, are CON 37%(-6), LAB 31%(+5), LDEM 17%(-2).
The poll was actually conducted last weekend at the same time as ICM’s Guardian poll, prior to the Queen’s speech, David Curry’s expenses accusations and the recent floods (before anyone suggests any of them might have contributed to it!). In ICM’s case the lead shrunk, but the Tory vote actually stayed the same, and the effect was to bring ICM in line with the sort of figures all the other pollsters were showing. This poll is clearly very different – it shows a 6 point collapse in Conservative support and represents by far the lowest Conservative lead for almost a year.
As ever, I would urge extreme caution on any poll showing a large shift in voting intention, especially where there is no obvious reason for a large, short term movement. Until we get the tables we can’t dig around to see exactly what is behind the movement, and until we find another poll supporting this shift, I wouldn’t get too excited/paniced (depending on your point of view!)
Filed under: MORI, Voting Intention
No wonder it wasnt published last week and that no one wnated it LORI bviously thiught it was rogue themselves. Take it as just another poll and not indicative as nothing has happened to shift such large amount of votes to or from any parties to warrent this. I’d wait for a few more to see what if anything is happening. its all conjecture anyway but fun for a few days.
excuse the spelling please in previous post, few to many bevies lol
As you say GREAT caution with this shift.
It just cannot be right, End of!!
Alec-Alec-it’s for you-oo.
@Stephen: I have to say I needed a few bevies when I saw this one!
The Observer did buy it , Stephen . As Anthony says we need to see the full data tables amd IMO the 6-10 likely to vote voting figures .
Stephen – if only it did work that way. A poll showing unexpected results is far more newsworthy than a dull sturdy one.
Anthony:
Where we differ is that I would urge extreme caution on any poll showing even a small shift in voting intention, where there is no obvious reason.
I’m Unitarian and I don’t believe anything.
If this poll was done last weekend it would have taken peoples views on the whole sun letter row?
That may explain a big shift?
Actually a point to ponder on. What if and only what if labour actually won the election after promising to bring the deficit down by half in four years through binding legislation, how will they do it? I do hope they tell us in the pre budget report or is that asking to much.
Anthony
Just because a poll shows the unexpected does that mean we can just dismiss all the other polls that have been so consistent for so long as not worthy and not showing the true picture?
I suspect these figures are due to a combination of a rather inaccurate poll plus a post by-election blip for Labour.
Still the last few polls do all appear to be moving in labours favour
Oh dear. Not just a straw to clutch but a mirage straw, made of magic unicorn breath …
Sorry i am new to this site.
Can anyone explain why in the calculation of the weighted average poll the ipsos Mori one from 15th November gets a weighting of 0.31 compared to the ICM one on the same day which has aweighting of 0.85?
Is it too soon to celebrate? I don’t usually drink but I might have some red wine
ALJ-I should have that drink incase it’s another mirage.
If it turns out to be a real oasis you can drink yourself blotto-whilst I wander off into the desert.
BigJohn – firstly, welcome
Secondly, on the same page as you got those figures from there’s an explanation of where they come from. The difference is basically down to the track record of the two companies, and more importantly, that MORI do not politically weight their samples (the difference that makes, why ICM do it and MORI don’t, is explained here)
Thanks for the explanation Anthony
Colin don’t wander all alone into the desert. There’ll be enough room for you around the oasis:-) btw Sky news says that there is a definite drift to labour in recent weeks. Is that right?
If this poll is correct i had better learn a new language and sell my house before the housing market collapses.
It does seen a large swing for not a lot going on to the real voter.
Mark Johnson – “It just cannot be right, End of!!”
Technically it can, although with such a large shift you’d want to see some others giving the same results before relying on it.
I saw an interesting, if slightly unbelievable post on a blog recently. It suggested that given the Conservative party’s new, more anti-EU stance, some pro-EU folk in the party may try to fix the election (which is relatively easy to do these days, with postal votes, and next morning counts) to produce a hung parliament – possibly with Labour as largest party.
In order to do this without arousing suspicion they need to make a hung parliament expected. It was suggested that Sky news were participating in this as they have been talking up Labour’s chances, and the possibility of a hung parliament recently without any polling justification. Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine have also been coming out of the woodwork saying a hung parliament is likely.
Of course I’m not suggesting anything about the way this poll was conducted, it’s just coincidence – but it could be used by the “hung parliament is most likely” mob…
This poll is awful, it would mean a hung parliament and the survival of Brown, are the Tories never going to recover? They should be at LEAST 15 points ahead in ALL polls right now to be confident of Victory in May. I am VERY converned, Simon
@Neil: I must confess that I would put tales of conspiracies firmly into the ‘tinfoil hat’ category.
I would not be all that surprised if some Tory ‘wets’ were slightly alarmed at the rather Eurosceptical turn the party has taken, but elections are about more than a single issue and the EU is hardly chief among them; and I consider it also somewhat unfeasible that Tory supporters would deliberately attempt to sabotage their own party’s chances at a GE.
The headlines in the Sunday Telegraph and the Sunday Times are going to quickly reverse the ‘Labour improving’ trend. Hard evidence of Blair’s lies on war in 2002 and Mandelson dividing the Government. I wonder if any evidence of the circumstances behind Dr Kelly’s death are going to appear soon.
As a result of the web of deceit that has been spun, the Labour party is dying a slow and painful death in front of our eyes.
Simon but a hung parliament might mean a conservative/lid-dem coalition. Brown would have to resign then!
Sorry I meant lib-dem
For the Tories to be down 6 and Labour to be up 5 indicates a seriously rogue poll, particularly when reasons for it are non existent.
A few too many polls show the Tories at below 40% though, maybe indicating the reason why Clarke and Hesseltine may air on the side of caution.
This is the sort of poll Labour need to keep seeing before a hung parliament becomes a serious possibility.
Blair has gone
Mandelson has become a team player
The economy is improving
Slow death is a very strange view
In my opinion labour voters will return to some extent and wouldnt be surprised if the latest poll, even though it probably exaggerates the position of labour currently, was nearer the mark than the 17 point lead polls by the next electon
Of course I am excited – it points to a hung Parliament and moves towards a Labour win – no doubt due to Cameron’s lack of policies being exposed, confusion over Europes, and Brown finally getting credit for saving the economy from the Banker’’s recession. But let’s be realistic, one poll is not enough and it is obviously an aberation.
RC
‘As a result of the web of deceit that has been spun, the Labour party is dying a slow and painful death in front of our eyes.’
I understand what you are saying but are you right? If this is just a blip then fine.
However, if not, I did not believe that it is possible for Labour to poll over 30% and they can.
The one thing that kept me going when labour was flogging our gold for a pittance, robbing our pension funds, spending our money on NHS computer systems that did not work and waging an illegal war was that when the wheels came off they would suffer.
The wheels have long ago come off but there they are riding high in the polls.
Looks like an outlier. I’d be amazed if the next poll to be published is similar to this one. The numbers themselves are uncannily similar to those in the one poll published during the 1997 election campaign which gave the Conservatives hope that they might not be facing a landslide defeat.
Don’t know if I’m allowed to mention certain things on here,
BBC news review says the poll boost for labour comes after the Glasgow win and the Sun’s attack on Brown. Sounds reasonable.
Big John,
Mandelson has become a team player.
Are you seriously trying to make out that that amphibians re-emergence from the slime is a positive for Labour in the eyes of the electorate?
I insist not !!
I think according to Anthony’s swingometer just one more point for Labour and they would have 17 more seats than the Tories in the GE.
Of course if this is a trend, then this figure may grow over the next few months. As for the Tories, with friends like the Sun, who needs enemies.
The poll of polls still say a tory victory of 58 majority. Do not get to excited yet Labour. Recent polls that are only a week old gave the tories a 14 point lead. It’s a freak poll and labour need to get more polls the same to be confident.
I must say we are still in recession, unemployment is still rising and labour have destroyed democracy in Britain. I cant see the country turning its back on the tories just because we SHOULD come out of the worst and longest recession soon. Debt rising and the country is finished. Come on people do not buy Labours rubbish and lies.
Is there a poll of polls on this site?
One more thing if that poll was done last week, I would love to see one now which would bring in the queen speech.
Lets be honest it was a terrible joke. Under 6 mins and nothing about expenses, afghan, or any serious policy. So much for being serious on implementing kelly. I thing you will see a swing towards the tories again because cameron destroyed Brown and showed him for the incompetent lier he is.
Labour have no idea, no policies and are completely out of touch with the country. I would love brown to bring on an election and lets see what happens. Hopefully he will get excited by the polls and call a GE but he will probably bottle it. Roll on GE.
AL J
Yes there is and it shows a Tory win of 58 seats. Before this poll it had a Tory win of 70 seats.
This is one poll out of a lot. I would not take it as read as there is no other agreeing with them.
I am also new to all this and finding the opinion here fascinating. from looking back at the data at other key times (ie expenses etc) there has not been a shift of this size in the polls for a long time. Certainly can’t see it coming from the ‘Sun’ story. In my book this hasgot to be a rogue poll but I will leave the number crunching to those who actually know what they are talking about.
The lead in this poll doesn’t feel right, and I see no reason why Cameron’s previously solid support should fall so sharply. In this regard, I would agree the poll result overall is something of a rogue. However, we now have two polls, conducted at the same time, showing a big rise in Labour support to around 30%. These follow a better week for Labour in terms of coverage. This may indicate something, although we need a couple more polls with similar results to really confirm it. However, given that these polls are a week out of date, it’s also possible that any positive effect for Labour has dissipated and their suport falls back. If so, this would still indicate there are significant numbers of voters still prepared to back Brown if circumstances change, so it does make life potentially more interesting.
Danny Boy
Yes I do believe Labour has passed its lowest point and I think not all the electorate will see Dave and William as slime free either.
As a betting man i notice 2 weeks ago Sky bet had total labour seats under/over 195.5. Candy from a baby IMO.
They now have this as under/over 205.5. I would still go over. I reckon Labour are still well short of hung parliament territory but as the recession will be over i wouldnt rule it out
Anthony,
When using the Swingometer function I notice that the LibDem % for 2005 is shown as 23.7. Should it not be 22.7?
Could someone please tell me where the poll of polls is. Thanks
Another good reason to urge polling caution is that the YouGov site seems to be utterly beset by technical problems recently…
AL J
Click on Nov 2009 in Archive section
Thanks Big John. Much appreciated;-)
Graham – yes, it should. Amazed no one has pointed that out before!
Ryan – erm, it’s an Ipsos MORI poll, it wasn’t done by YouGov.
As a poll watcher more than a loyalty to any party, I hope beyond hope this isn’t rogue. This election has been statistically boring for at least 6 months now, having it competitive would be much more interesting.
Also, if Cameron actually lost the next election, that would be both amazing and terrifying, you thought Labour couldn’t lose in 92, this would put it to shame.
Perhaps David Cameron should start thinking about finding a coalition partner just in case this is any indication of a trend. I don’t normally set much store by MORI results but someone’s got to be right, or at least more right than wrong.
I’m sure the last time I used the swingometer a few weeks ago the LD vote was correctly set at 22.7%.
I think this has a lot to do with the Sun row! I am a student but work part time in a large shop that sells newspapers in a strong tory area (ken clarkes constituency to be exact), and in the last two weeks around 15% to 25% of sun newspapers have been left on the shelves. Before they used to sell out and the daily mirror was left – this has now changed round. I think the sun has shot itself in the foot
I don’t see how Brown gets credit for the econmy when the UK is the last industrialized economy still in recession and the borrowing this year was 88 times last year far surpassing other countries. France and Germany grew in the second quarter while UK shrunk the the third quarter. The U.S grew at a healthy margin in the third quarter.
Time for the SUN to stop with their political games as they are no help with the tories.
Cameron has a big problem with Lisbon in his base. Even though it was Brown who worked to move up the ireland vote to put the tories in this position. Labour promised a referendum and now cameron is getting blamed for it when now that it is law which is unfair.
Everything about Brown is political mischeif and yet he is getting waves of sympathy lately.
This is the worst outcome because Brown will stay as PM even if the tories have a lot more seats than him but can’t form a majority.
That is why it is a myth that the tories are favored in the election. I assume very soon you will see the bookies start to change their predictions. The upset would be for the tories to gain 117 seats not for the tories to gain less and Brown to remain PM.
Brown for five more years? Labour for five more years going on 18 years? The issue should be about Brown and Labour not about Cameron as the media always makes it about him. I never saw an election when the opposition is such the issue. The opposition was the issue in 2005 as well instead of Blair’s record.
As a psychological point, it’s interesting how a long-established trend is assumed to not continue to the next election (”Labour MUST win back support as the election approaches”) but any change- hypothetical or apparent- is assumed to be fixed until June 2010.
It’s perfectly possible that Labour might win support back, lose it, regain it, lose it… Volatility is something that cuts both ways.
And this poll is either a rogue poll or something that is too risky to read anything into without it being substantiated by other polls. In short, this poll is a good way to demarcate the veteran poll-watchers from the neonates.
Anthony, in the rogueish light of this poll, will other pollsters now rush to do their own to find out whether the swing is real or a blip?
@ Bill – “It’s perfectly possible that Labour might win support back, lose it, regain it, lose it… Volatility is something that cuts both ways.”
Of course it’s possible, but a sudden very large swing without there having been some momentous event to have catalysed it is obviously suspicious. Neither the Glasgow East byelection nor The Sun incident were that sort of event.
Clearly a rogue. Ipsos/Mori have a Standard Deviation of 3 so occasionally they will be nearly 6 points out. They had a similar shocker the other way in Feb that over-estimated the CLead to 5.5 on the WMA – and turned out to be 6 points out on the retrospective.
The WMA is 40:28:18 and the next poll will almost certainly show a CLead of 12-14 points.
POLL ALERT
There is a poll reported in the Sunday Times Scotland. No voting intention figures are published, and very oddly the name of the polling firm is omitted! (YouGov are STS’s normal pollster.)
‘Nearly half of voters back Scottish public broadcaster’
“Of the 1,040 people surveyed, 47% said they supported the creation of a Scottish broadcasting service, compared to 18% who were opposed and 35% who were undecided.
Support is strongest among younger adults and nationalist supporters. More than half of the 25- to 34-year-olds (53%) questioned said the BBC should be replaced by a Scottish broadcaster, although only 37% of 16- to 24-year-olds agreed.”
Sunday Times Scotland link:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6927038.ece
NBeale
I think that standard deviations of estimates are pretty meaningless where the “true” values being estimated have short term fluctuations and longer term trends. Theoretically it is quite possible for the method with the largest apparent SD to be in fact tracking the “true” value most accurately. I have no idea whether this is this case, nor perhaps has anybody else.
I do think we should all be a little careful in dismissing this poll as an out and out rogue. As I said earlier, the Labour rise and current level has now been backed up by both the two most recent polls – this is a little harder to dismiss as a rogue, especially when we consider there was better news for Labour immediately prior to these polls being conducted. By contrast, the big drop in Tory support does look odd after such a long and relatively stable period, and I think most people would agree that this would need further evidence before we accept a 6% lead as a true reflection of the situation. However, even here, we now have four polling companies – Angus Reid, Populus, ComRes and Mori – all showing the Tories below 40% in their latest polls. 37% is only one point lower than a poll on 5th November and just a couple of points down on two more recent polls.
I am often criticised (unfairly on many occasions in my view) for overly biased posts. What we have seen in this thread from many posters is a wilful attempt to selectively ignore some recent polling trends in favour of results that suit people’s political beliefs. There is no point hiding from unpalatable data by crying ‘rogue poll’. While there are elements of this poll that look odd, it seems clear that Tory support has softened and could well now be sub 40% as four from six pollsters have found. Labour’s support is still yoyoing around with the LD’s, but the most recent polls now suggest a figure around 30%. What’s so rogue about that?
It’s Gordon’s GE to lose now.
Only kidding clearly an outlier, 10-11% lead probably right due to BY-Election and reverse SUN effect (maybe Cammo’s staged photo had an effect as well with a few, drip drip doubts on his sincerity gaining ground perhaps)
As per Alec this may have already gone back to 12-14% as field work was last weekend.
Please remeber this poll and mine and Alec’s scepticism when we see a 17 or 18% lead with others at 18% from Angus Reid or somebody else in a few weeks time.
Tory Lead is 10-15% with Lib Dems just below 20% but we don’t know exactly – who can?
I remember in late ‘91 campaigning for Labour in the Lanbaurgh By-Election which we won but with a much smaller swing than looked probable when the campaign started.
I spent a lot of time there as was on garden leave between jobs and what happened was that voters for the first time started to imagine a Labour Led Kinnock Government, even in the By-Election, as the GE was only a few months away.
It led many of us to believe that ‘92 would be hung and that we were fighting for the largest party status.
We all know it was even worse (from my perspetive).
I think this is happening now and whilst GB’s Labour Government is simillarly unpopular to Major’s Tories in 92 I think Cameron is a better ‘candidate’ than Kinnock but his front bench has Osborne, Gove and Grayling in stead of John Smith, Tony Blair and Robin Cook.
(Phillip Hammond excellent to be fair and should be shadow chancellor)
Upshot regardless of historical patterns as the GE’s approach each one is uniquie but 79&92 have the greatest parrallels and IHMO there will be small drift away from the cons. Not enough, probably, to prevent a victory but enough to dispel a land-slide or even good majority.
Of course an unknown unknown could occcur on either side in the next 6 months.
@ Alec – “I am often criticised (unfairly on many occasions in my view) for overly biased posts. What we have seen in this thread from many posters is a wilful attempt to selectively ignore some recent polling trends in favour of results that suit people’s political beliefs.”
Oh come on. This poll is a radical departure from all recent polling and nothing has happened recently that would seem to explain a swing of this size. It’s not “selectively ignoring” this poll to regard it as most likely a freak. You’ve only to look at the sidebar panel on this site to see how out of kilter it is.
Of course if the next two or three polls deliver similar results, that would certainly mark a significant trend. But right now all we have is this poll on its own and its findings are clearly way out of line with other recent polls.
Relax this is great news. I’ve been advising everybody who is polled to say
they are going to vote Labour.
A few good polls and GB will be so chuffed he’ll call a snap election and we won’t have to wait until May.
Four of the last six polls show the Conservatives in the high 30’s rather than the 40’s.
If Labour could find something, anything, to get themselves into the 30’s – this could still be a close General Election.
@James Ludlow – you’ve rather made my point for me. In my post I stated quite clearly that the large drop in Tory support looks odd, and that we need further evidence before we assume a lead of 6% is the true picture. However, I also pointed out that in some ways this poll is not such a radical departure from recent polls as you seem to think. We have 4 from 6 pollsters now finding the Tories under 40%. We have the last two polls finding Labour at around 30%. What we haven’t had, until this poll, are pollsters finding Labour at 30 and the Tories under 40 in the same poll. That could suggest it is a freak, but with the majority of pollsters now putting the Tory support within the range of 37 – 39% I think you should be careful dismissing this poll as a freak.
@ Alec – whether the Tories are marginally under or over 40% isn’t particularly significant. It’s the lead that’s significant. If the Tories were on 35 and Labour on 20, that would still produce a significant Tory majority (with the Other votes presumably being very high, resulting in a ragtag carnival of eccentric MPs from many little parties.
I appreciate that you’re looking for straws to clutch, and that at times you feel like a drowning man naked in a river of icy Blue water, but you can surely still see that your fingers are reaching for a straw and not a life-raft.
@James – sigh – as I tire of pointing out, while I’m no fan of the Conservatives, I’m also no fan of Brown and the current Labour party. I have no desire to see either of these two parties gain/regain power at the next election. I am not therefore clutching at straws, nor am I drowning in icy water, blue or otherwise. If you actually read my posts, all I am saying is that while the lead in this poll is particularly low, in many ways it fits with the observed trends. The unusual element is that, for the first time this poll put a sub 40 score for the Tories together with a plus 30 for Labour.
I guess the bigger point I was suggesting is that while many posters here are happy to dismiss a 6 or 10 point lead as an out and out rogue, when we have 17 point leads they seem to be accepted as accurate. I think that’s odd, and betrays a biased view of polling evidence.
Although I personally believe it would be a bad result for the UK, I’m increasingly beginning to perversely want to see a Gordon Brown victory next May so I trawl through the archives and cut and paste everyone’s comments just for a laugh.
Firstly is this one of those threads where the comments policy is suspended? If not can Craig U and Davey try and control themselves?
My sense from the last week’s campaigning is that there is a definite turn back in Labour’s direction. I think that the following factors have all helped:
Cameron’s fake Remembrance day photo-
The Sun’s attempt to use a bereaved family to hurt the PM
The Cameron Euro guarantee back track
Labour’s stunning Glasgow NE by election victory
Can’t understand why some posters are suggesting that there are no reasons to suggest a move back to Labour.
I believe that this poll will show itself to be an exageration of the weakness of the Tory position but that 39/30 will probably be about right at the moment, which would still be a huge imporvement on the wipeout polls we were seeing pre conference season, but obviously more polls will tell us more accurately.
What cant be denied is that Labour are recovering (a little) the Tories are falling (a little) and the Lib dems aren’t benefitting which suggests that Europe could be a significant factor.
DARE I SAY IT… Game on!!
Oh dear oh dear. How panicked / desperate the Tory supporting comments are on this site (which seems the dominant viewpoint). The vitriol shown by people like Craig U with his personal attack on GB is revealing how desperate some people feel when they see the possibility that democracy will not travel in the direction they would like. Get over it, it’s only 1 poll.
In the cold light of day maybe this site is really about an analysis of numbers and what may happen to these numbers and why (apologies if this offends the sensitivities of anyone). So my opnion…….
Only 1 poll does not mean this is the way things will be/are. What should be worrying to the Tories and their supporters is that even at a 10% lead, which seems to be likeliest lead for the Tories at the moment, a hung parliament is very likely, with it being touch and go who will be the largest party.
You have to recognise that governing parties pick up votes in the near months of a GE and a little during a GE campaign. People’s sense of fairness allows a consideration of the governing party despite an environment of intense anti-government reporting where all that is emphasised are their mistakes and failures (this has been true for decades, so is not a party biased point). So they also remember what they have achieved – which gets prompted by the campaigning of the governing party, and the fact that in the near months/GE campaigning time, people take the time to listen to what they say as they will need to make a decision about them (this isn’t the case for the remaining 4½ years between elections, so more reactionary views are the norm).
So people start to recognise what the governing party has achieved. People will recognise things like dropping hospital waiting time to 18 weeks from GP to treatment for all conditions (and 2 weeks for the major killers) when there were patients waiting on trolleys in corridors or 18months+ for treatment in 1996 is an achievement. They will also remember that they had schools with leaky roofs and few teachers in 1996 and now see their school building has improved as has the number of teachers teaching in them as an achievement.
They will see this in the context of all the criticisms that have been put on this site, like the government’s poor handling of the expenses situation or their cost orientated view of managing things in Afghanistan, etc……
So the majority will still be unhappy with the government. However some will give the government credit for what it has done based on the type of things I have mentioned above. A middling minority is all that is needed for there to be a swing of 5% from Tory to Labour during the near months of the GE. 5% is the type of growth many governing parties have seen in the run up to an election over history. On a 10% gap a 5% increase in the Labour vote vs a 5% drop in the Tory vote will make the 2 parties virtually neck and neck. End result is a hung parliament.
As this site has often explained, equal/similar percentages between the 2 parties in the mid 30s often benefits Labour. I think the current parliament is based on Labour 35.3%, Tories 32.3% giving Labour a 66 seat majority. So a GE result of c35% – 35% could well leave Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament. And I wouldn’t hold out too much hope for a Con-LibDem alliance – it wouldn’t be stomached by huge parts of the LibDem party (they haven’t forgotten or forgiven the last time the Tories were in power, although some have).
We also have yet to see the level of policy detail from the Tories that the government is required to give, and more importantly the scrutiny it will need to go under. This activity could well also contribute to the 5% swing I mentioned earlier, as some (and again it just needs to be a small proportion of people for the 5% swing) may get turned off the Tories once their policies are subjected to scrutiny.
For the Tories to feel confident they really need to have leads in the 15% to 20% level consistently.
It’s just an opinion. Time will tell.
James
How many chickens you counted so far
IMO it will be closer than you think. Do you think labour will increase or decrease from the 27% poll of poll result. i know where my money would be, so Conservaties need to stay in high thirties to win
The media, at least, are happy with this poll (based on my straw poll of….. err……Sky News. It’s doom and gloom all the way, with the Conservative lead evaporating and Labour on the comeback trail. I agree with the majority of posters above; we will only really know when the next couple of polls come out. Meanwhile, I’ll dig out my passport just in case……
Well I’ve got my passport handy already incase the bnp win. I can’t trace my lineage back 17,000 years (joke) haha
@TOBY PERKINS
1) Brown has also been forced to apologise re Remembrance
Day photo’s
2) The publics pity is not a vote winner
3) Cameron had the European rug pulled from under, Brown lied.
There is a difference.
4) Labour winning in the East End of Glasgow is not “stunning”
and signifies nothing as many a Scottish poster here will confirm.
Listen to Anthony. Don’t get excited.
I would say the floods are bringing out the best in Brown -he does do the ‘I am sympathetic to your plight’ bit very well. (Where is the Queen by the way,isn’t this her job?).Saw David Cameron on BBC today – was rather unpleasantly reminded of Edward Heath when he started banging on about Corporation Tax. I would say Brown’s idea of more health care for the elderly is much more in tune with the public.
More revelations about the Communist past ot a leading Tory won’t help relations between Tory Central Office and the activists which I suspect are poor.
@ ALEC
I hear what you are saying regarding willingness to believe a 17 point Tory lead but question a 6 point Tory lead.
I think the main issue is not we Tory Boys clutching straws, but a lack of understanding as to how the Labour Party can have any support left whatever. Obviously the tribal vote, the Guardian chattering class, plus the long term unemployed/unemployable who bother to vote, will amount to 20 to 24 %. Where figures of 30 plus come from in the light of the last 12 years and particularly the last 2 years, is totally beyond our ability to rationalise.
Semi OT
Last night Sky News described ukpollingreport.co.uk as a “think tank”. No longer a psephologist, Anthony, you are now a “wonk”. It’s official.
This single poll is creating a much bigger story than it is worth. On the 8 November there were two polls by different companies – one with 9 point tory lead and one with 19 point.
On the same day as this poll, another had a Tory lead of 13 points.
On this basis, it seems more like SPIN to try and conjure up some belief that people are willing to support these muppets.
I am new to this site so appologies if I am being naive but on the assumption that the balance of the poll goes to others there is an increase of 3% in the others category since the last IPSOS poll.
@ BigJohn – “IMO it will be closer than you think.”
As you don’t know what I think, that’s a rather bold claim.
My view is that, yes, when it comes to the general election we might well see the Labour share rise a few points as disgruntled Labour supporters grudgingly return to Labour rather than give the Tories a free ride. That’s certainly a possibility, though so too is it possible that in 6 months time a proportion of habitual Labour voters is too apathetic to vote at all. Or it may be that we see the polling averages reflected in the general election. Until we get there, no one can be certain exactly what will happen.
But we are discussing the here-and-now – this poll in the context of other recent polls. And in that context, it’s clearly wildly out of line.
@ Alec – “I guess the bigger point I was suggesting is that while many posters here are happy to dismiss a 6 or 10 point lead as an out and out rogue, when we have 17 point leads they seem to be accepted as accurate.”
I don’t think that “many posters here” have in fact accepted 17 point leads as accurate. The common view seems to be that a 12-14 point lead is the most accurate, and that’s certainly my own view. But even if what you are claiming is true, it would be less foolish than putting one’s faith in this single poll – for the simple reason that since early October no less than 5 polls have found a 17 point Tory lead and 1 found a 19 point lead, compared to this single poll returning a 6 point lead.
@WOLF
I cannot see that “our chum” Eric being a Communist when he was a kid is going to have an Earth shattering consequence.
Lets face it about 95 % of the Labour front bench were.
Regarding corporation tax, it is the theft of advanced corporation tax relief which has severly damaged so many peoples pension schemes. This is to a point that only govenment employees enjoy final salary schemes at all. Quite a social injustice I would say, and one which Brown should own up to rather than playing games which suggest he cares.
@King Harold – I think we agree on the relevance of the actual polls. In relation to your other comments, I have said for some time that partisan poll watchers (on all sides) do need to be careful in the way they assess alternative views to their own. There are many genuine people out there who believe that Labour inherited a really bad situation with regard in particular to public services, and that heavy investment has led to vastly improved services etc. There are lots of arguments to be had over whether we got value for money, whether PFI has buried the true costs, whether we should have reigned in spending earlier etc. There are also issues about Brown’s character that many of us feel doubtful of. However, to balance that, there are also issues about Cameron’s character, and as we approach a GE increasing worries in some quarters about Tory policy announcements. For example, two issues that really worry me are the Tories media policy and their belief in directly elected police commissioners – I think both could be disastrous, but that’s only my personal view.
To throw out a sitting government I suspect that an opposition has to overcome extra barriers of public trust, especially when you have been in opposition for many years. A few people have stated that Cameron in 2010 is not seen in the same light as Blair in 97 and I think that’s true. These are some of the reasons why Labour may see a recovery of some sort as we approach polling day, but let’s never forget Brown’s ability to not just shoot himself in the foot, but blow both his legs off above the knee. I wouldn’t panic just yet.
We are now six months away from the probable date of the next general election. I have looked at what polls were saying at the same point in the last five general elections. The surprising thing is that polls six months ahead of general elections are actually quite a poor indicator of the percentage share on polling day. In four out of the last five elections big swings occurred in the last six months.
i.e 1987 a Lab lead of around 1.5% turned to a Con lead of 11.4% six months later.
In 1992 a Lab lead of 2.1% changed to a Con lead of 7.5%
In 1997 a Lab lead of 23.5% reduced to a Lab lead of 13.0%
In 2001 a Lab lead of 23.5% reduced to a Lab lead of 9.0%
The 2005 election was the exception with a Lab lead of 6.0% changing only slightly to a lead of 3.0%.
(These figures were obtained by averaging the last six polls prior to the date six months before the election).
I am not naïve enough to suggest that there is some law of nature that says this will happen again this time, but I think it is reasonable to say that as big changes in voting intention in the six months prior to an election happen more often than not there are still grounds for considerable uncertainty.
I will leave it to others to speculate as to why such changes during the last six months have occurred.
Anthony Wells,
Unfortunate you chose to be a part of this pathetic coverage on Sky News. Did you get calls from them to come on for the dozens of polls that have been showing the Tories 13-14+ points clear recently?
Also highly amusing that Launa Dunkley suggested to you that news papers would make more of polls that favour their political view. You decided not to point out that Sky News were doing that very thing with the coverage you were participating in? Or perhaps in the heat of the moment you didnt realise their hypocrisy?
When was the last time Sky News made a point of devoting all that air time to an opinion poll, and making it sound so significant? The last time that I remember was when there was another way-out-of-the ordinary poll. I suspect it was September 30th of +7 to the Tories. Sky made a big deal out of it then too and implied it was far more significant that anyone here knew it was. I guarantee that if the next poll shows +13 there will not be a word uttered about it.
Pace Shopkeeper man, are we posters Wonkers then.
Had to be careful how I typed that.
@ Alec
I would not disagree with one word you have said.
M
You could argue that a string of polls saying the same isn’t news, an outlier is.
Or perhaps, if you believe Sky has a political objective, this news should scare anti-Labourites into getting out to vote.
Especially as changes in propensity to vote are as likely to cause shifts in polls as actual shifts of opinion.
My god, this poll is part of Sky’s headlines today? LOL. Wow.
Also, to Alec, yes biased left wing Keynesian academics (like you) do desperately try to tell people that Labour inherited a terrible situation. Its the only way they can attempt to justify the disastrous financial situation Labour are (as usual) leaving the country in. Its not as if they can any longer credibly claim what a wonderful job Brown is doing to “fight the recession.”
i can confirme that i was called by ipsos mori last week and the iseues of mp’s exspenses came up and mp trustwothy acame up plus normal voting intentions, so yes the poll was done last weekend
“You could argue that a string of polls saying the same isn’t news, an outlier is.”
Shopkeeper,
No, I dont think you can argue that at all. And thats my point. One (likely outlier) is very definitely NOT news. Just like the string of polls all saying the same thing is not news.
Bit odd just to focus on Sky’s coverage, the Observer have made it a massive headline. “Poll boost for PM as confidence in economy grows”.
Needless to say, coming on the same day as the ICM poll which showed no such movement, this feels like an outlier – but Alec’s right to say there’s been an apparent trend towards Labour in recent weeks. They’ve been peppering the 30 mark again which they haven’t done since the early part of this year. It’s no indicator of what might happen long-term though.
“Or perhaps, if you believe Sky has a political objective, this news should scare anti-Labourites into getting out to vote.”
Shopkeeper,
I have never thought Sky News had a political objective. Not for the years Ive been watching. At least certainly not a left leaning objective. Although it has always been obvious that certain news readers and reporters have left leaning views, the tone of Sky News overall has never felt left leaning. And it is Murdoch after all so that is not surprising. Especially if you have ever seen Fox News.
But I have noticed a definite change of tone on Sky News in the last few months. There is definitely a (subtle) anti-Tory feel to me which I dont really understand given Murdoch, the Sun etc. Maybe there has been a change of behind the scenes personnel at Sky News or something.
Im sitting watching Sky News now and they are doing yet another live segment on it right now! They are really really doing this poll to death. Giving air time to some Labour womans suggestion that this poll reflects a worry about the Tories, when in all likelihood all this poll is is an outlier or a blip from the recent by election coverage. Would anyone here put money on there being many more polls like this showing a continuing trend in the next few days/weeks? I bet not.
M,
I believe that you are being distinctly unfair to Anthony here.
Surely the point is that whether or not this poll is a rogue – and it is more than likely to have exaggerated any Labour recovery – it is undoubtedly ‘news’ in that it represents a significant departure from recent trends. If the Tory lead were to settle down at 6 or 7% for a few months and a poll comes along showing a Tory lead of 15%, I think there is every likelihood that that too would be treated by broadcasters as ‘news’ – rogue or not!
It is also worth bearing in mind that journalists -whether they work for the BBC, SKY or the broadsheets – tend to be far less informed and sophisticated in respect of polls and psephology than many contributors to this site.
“it is undoubtedly ‘news’ in that it represents a significant departure from recent trends.
Graham,
Thats an unfortunate view in my opinion. Thats just what makes it not news if you ask me. Three or four within a couple of weeks showing the same thing and then maybe it is news. But one poll? Way out of line with all others? Thats already a week out of date. And with another poll the very same day showing things are “as you were”? No, this reporting is nonsense.
I do agree with others that this new poll is news worthy.
I also think conversely to other posts that it may give labour supporters new vigour to vote whereas before they may have just given up.
I was contacted by Ipsos Mori well over 2 weeks ago, in fact it might be 3 weeks. This is the first Ipsos Mori voting intention poll since that telephone interview. So how old is it?
@AL J
Well if you are right the scam has worked.
I rather disagree in that once a trend becomes clearly established it ceases to be’news’. It’s in the nature of journalists to latch on to something that is a little unexpected.They clearly feel that they have a story here – whether it proves to have any substance is a very different matter!
King H
If you don’t mind me saying, I don’t see any scam. A scam is a type of fraudulant activity. Even if the poll was skewed in some way ( which I don’t believe for a minute) getting people out to vote can’t be called a scam.
“but Alec’s right to say there’s been an apparent trend towards Labour in recent weeks.”
Alec would try to assert that, but its not really true if you look over the record that Anthony has on the right of the front page. Things have certainly recovered from the expenses scandal, but Labour are no better off now than they were before it. Earlier in the year, before expenses, they were dotting about the 30 mark often. Polls look worse for Labour now than before expenses.
The last six polls have been Tories +14, +10, +14, +14, +13, +6.
With Labour being firmly in the mid 20s in three, and around 30 in three. Alec would indeed try to suggest that shows a trend back to Labour. But then, you are talking about Alec.
Um.. all I’m saying is that the polls have looked slightly more positive for Labour over recent weeks than they have for months – that would be true whether Alec had also observed it or not, and whatever happened earlier in the year. And I mean in absolute terms rather than what the gap is to the Tories. I don’t think it’s particularly significant on its own, anyway, though.
Toby – the timing of the other three is right, but the Conservative Europe policy is too early – we had several polls showing no narrowing after that, but before the Sun/Brown row and Glasgow NE.
Shopkeeper man – Woo! I’m a very small one man think tank.
M – oh course not, but I went on and said you shouldn’t over egg it, it might be a blip like many blips before and that you should wait and see if the trend is confirmed. If you want a contrary voice on there, contrary voices need to be prepared to go on, otherwise *every* interviewee would be claiming it was vastly significant.
Stuart/king harold – the dates were 13th to 15th, it’s in the Observer article.
James Ludlow,
I quite agree. That’s why I think this poll is a rogue. However, what I was alluding to was the assumption that the current situation is inherentely unstable, while any increase or decrease in the Conservative lead would be necessarily stable.
The comments on this poll are a very good iodine test for finding the starchiness of various people’s analysis. Do you think Labour should actually be at 10%? You’ll dismiss this poll a priori. Do you long for Labour to be at least competitive in 2010? You’ll see this as being part of a clear trend. Let’s not forget, the last poll before this was appaling for Labour: just 29%, which looks good only in comparison to previous polls.
I would quite like to see a hung parliament in 2010, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats forming a coalition. Combined they could do very well (or very badly) but my personal political preferences don’t change the fact that we are heading to the Tories having a working majority.
M,
Precisely. There are a lot of Team Cameron cheerleaders on here, but they’ve at least going something to cheer about without sounding nuts, which can’t be said for everyone else on the site.
Still, I’m keeping an open mind, as much out of optimism as anything else. This poll MIGHT be a rogue, but it MIGHT be representative of a new trend. As with so many things in life, we will have to be patient before we know.
Im new to commenting on this site and my comment got moderated for well over an hour (maybe 2 – I stopped looking at 12.30 and have just looked again), so has been lost in the mire. Any suggestions of how to post a comment that would not get stuck in moderation for so long? Ta.
While debating the possible outcome of the next election on this board I am still puzzled a to what would be the best system for a better representation of the electorates wishes.
The FPTP has problems the PR has problems the AV ha problems the boundaries set in favour of Labour.
Maybe something approaching the Swiss style system with more referendums on major changes or the USA where you can force a referendum with enough signatures.
Not that any of this will ever happen in GB, too many vested interests. It can not be right to have landslides with 25% of the total votes, have unelected Lords in the government. Not good for democracy may be that is why nearly half the people can’t be bothered to vote. As friend of mine said to me “ I don’t vote, it only encourages them”
Ronnie – you’ve already done it! Comments from new posters automatically get held for manual moderation. Once one is approved, all your future comments will go through automatically unless they get mistaken for spam, or I manually moderate them.
Not a lot to see here. This poll is as bad as the one that showed a 17% lead.
The Tories are cruising to a comfortable majority.
@M – I’m sorry, but I take umbridge at a couple of your posts that refer to me. Your post at 1.06pm regarding me being a ‘biased left wing Keysian economist’ is frankly ridiculous. All I said was that in some people’s view Labour inherited a poor situation in terms of public services. Even most Tories accept this, which is why they are so keen to prove they have changed their view on these issues. I then qualified my statement with observations about several potential criticisms you could make of Labour’s record in this area, so I wish you would grow up and actually read my posts.
Second, your post of 1.55pm in response to Wes White contains another disparaging remark about me asserting a trend towards Labour. Again, if you read my posts you would see that I commenetd that the last two polls have shown a sharp lift in Labour support. This is a fact, but I didn’t claim this as a trend, and did say that we need more polling evidence before we can confirm this is indeed a trend. The evidence for a Tory rating of under 30% is more clear, with four recent pollsters scoring them between 37 – 39%, but I deliberately didn’t claim a positive trend for Labour based on two polls taken at the same time – we need more polls over a longer timespan to confirm or reject this notion.
Please try to read and understand people’s posts before you criticise them.
Anthony – I’d be interested to know from historic polling evidence how often a party can improve itsrating close to an election whilst its leader’s rating continues to be poor?
“The Tories are cruising to a comfortable majority.”
I disagree.
They may well have a majority. It might not be comfortable.It most certainly isn’t a cruise.
They have a mountain to climb, and it will be a bloody battle against Brown, to come out on top.
@AL J
Perhaps you are right, however, I have over the last 12 years, become so deeply distrustful regarding anything that appears to favor the Labour Party, that an assumption of dishonesty is my instinctive reaction.
@M “Also, to Alec, yes biased left wing Keynesian academics (like you) do desperately try to tell people that Labour inherited a terrible situation.”
Thankyou M, I genuinely wasn’t aware that there was anyone disputing this….perhaps people born in 98 ….perhaps people who had little reason to use public services beforehand for some unknown reason….
This poll, almost certainly a rogue….but not the entire change. It seems to me their previous was also inaccurate the other way, which give an 11 point drop seeming more dramatic than a 6/7 change.
Ignore it anyways, just spawned a few straws for labourites….and rather more ignorances of the comments policy by anti-labourites.
@ANTONY WELLS
You have got me wondering what Ipsos Mori were interviewing me for, some considerable time before 13th – 15th Nov. It certainly was’nt their previous poll.
@AW
………… it seems a pretty excitable world today, especially for some people of a particular party political view …….who have hit the jitters.
Many thanks – Im new to this world
Unemployment isn’t going to peak until 2011. How much benefit can you possibly get when the unemployment is still rising for the next 6 months.
James,
On the ILO basis , the headline unemployment figure rose by 30,000 in the 3 months to September but actually fell by 10,000 in the 1 month August to September from 2.47 million to 2.46 million.
The claimant count continued to rise by 13,000 August to September.
The OECD report has the UK unemployment rate going from 7.8 percent and to 9.5 percent by 2011. Also the BDO report has 2.75 million unemployed by november of 2010.
I think the august to september downgrade was a blip because unemployment is usally a lagging indicator. Granted reports earlier in the year had projections as high as 3.4 million unemployed at the peak.
U.S grew last quarter at 3.5 percent and 82 percent of the people still think the economy is poor because jobs are still being lost. It’s curious that the UK lost growth in the third quarter and the view is so much more optimistic when you can argue the recovery has been better in the U.S. I guess you guys have a better attitude.
King H Thanks for the reply.
Anthony W
Can I just say, it’s a wonderful thing you’ve done on this site. I’ve always been interested in polls and now all I need do is switch on the info. Thanks a bundle;-)
Alec
I’ve read all your posts above and found them carefully thought out and interesting analysis.
I actually agree with you and you’ve made some good points.
I look forward to further polls and more comments from you as we get nearer to the GE.
M
Re Sky News. A shift towards New Labour is to be expected strategically for the simple reason that they need their co-operation when it comes to televised debates. Brown could easily say no to a channel as biased as their owner, and go instead for BBC,ITV,C4 &/or C5.
Murdoch is clearly a Republican and for him closer EU ties would be a threat to his football (ie profit) business. Therefore, a gratreful Tory Govt is his goal.
Re: Kevin Hawkins (12:26pm) figures of changes in votes from 6 months before the election to the actual election:
If those figures are correct, it is interesting that every single one back to 1987 shows a movement to the Tories in the last 6 months before a GE!
I know that history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but I still found this very noteworthy.
Pete B,
That is precisely why I and many others have always challenged the commonly held, but still misguided, view that voters swing back to the Government as an election apporaches.
If you go back even further than Kevin did, you will see that there has been a consistent pattern of a shift to Cons, whomever is in government.
Of course one cannot assume it will happen again, nor is there any consistency in the amplitude of swing.
Political betting has noted an Angus Reid poll showing Tories 17 points clear and Lib dems only 1 point behind labour.
Another blip or the true story?