My compliments. A very succinct analysis of how to win Westminster elections.

I am sure it holds equally true in Scotland, save that the electoral landscape is more complicated.

For the SNP, I am sure that the primary focus is and will remain the Holyrood elections, where the dance is quite definitely a quadrille and not a waltz as at Westminster. In the Westminster ballroom, the most that the SNP can hope for is to tread on toes and trip up the leading couple to the point where they expel you from the dance floor – giving you what you want.

Paul

“This is what leads them all to try to grab what they think is the ‘middle-ground’, so that they will offend the least number of people.”

I think that is a miss reading of what triangulation is all about. The middle ground is defined as the point where your support starts and the your principle opponents support begins.

The focus is to find those policies where you can win over voters on the margins by appealing to their support without alienating your own.

So new Labour u turned on right to by and disarmament because middle Englands Tory voters supported them and then emphasised Education and Health as areas to focus on because middle england couldn’t afford to go private so they would support bettter state provision.

Its not rocket science, both Labour and Tory have done it and it works. A key to success is understanding the demograhics who will vote where and for what, and how salient different issues were to them.

If you look at ICMs figutes for the late 90′s, the two biggest concerns of Middle England were schools and the NHS and er all know what Blair fought on, the two issues that the soft Tory vote in the marginals was most concerned about.

Thats why Europe and immigration never get to the top of the pile.

For the Tories most of the people who have a problem with it are Tory voters so pandering to your own support won’t get you many votes.

The problem occurs when you get a UKIP which because of that one issue takes away some of your support.

That effect is more pronounced when you are weak and people don’t think you can win, but next year there will be far more eurosceptics voting for a Tory government to replace Labour than for UKIP over Lisbon.

In away the rise of the BNP is traditional Labour areas is the same. Even if the BNP do well they won’t win any seats and the can’t effect the outcome of an election so they and immigration can be ignored.

Even if the BNP do have an effect in a seat it wonn’t be to weaken the vote to let the Tories inbecause in a Tory/Labour marginals there will be other more significant issues.

I think it was Richthoven who said;

” Rove your airspace, find the enemy, shoot him down and anything else is rubbish”

Only two parties can win a Uk election and to win they need to win over their opponents supportes in the key marginals or protect their vote in them.

If you know what these people care about and what their concerns are and press the right butttons you can win.

If in winning you have ignored a lot of other issues important to a lot of people, even a majority, you have still won.

Peter.

The result is that though there are big popular majorities for leaving the EU, Independence for Scotland, return of the death penalty, ban on immigration etc etc, none of the main parties represent these views. It is left to fringe parties to do that.

You wouldn’t disagree that what has happened in the past can happen in the future and you agree that a Conservative party with a large majority is at risk of over-confidence. Even being aware of a danger does not mean that you will necessarily avoid it.

I agree that the Conservatives are not winning so much as Labour are losing. No election since the war has been “won”. The different situation in Scotland has no other explanation. It isn’t a sudden enthusiasm for independence. That’s why you know that people who vote for your party aren’t only its supporters isn’t it?

I say that as one who expects to vote for your party’s candidates and for independence too when I get the chance.

If B usually follows A, what do you normally expect when A happens? Sometimes it doesn’t of course. Time will tell.

We have had over confident governments from both parties with strong leaders marginalising cabinet and in the case of TB and Clause 4, a PM going out of his way to pick a fight with his party’s most loyal supporters to show that he could take “tough decisions” and demonstrate that he was a strong leader.

Nobody doubts that Labour is losing votes. Many former supporters will refrain from voting. Few in Scotland will go directly to the Conservatives and not simply because there is an extra choice. The few who might do so could change due to a single, possibly local, issue of exceptional importance to the voter.

In many constituencies, the SNP are behind the LibDems. Do you suppose ALL the ex-Labour voters are turning towards the SNP?

Will they want to do that in Argyll, or would they support the incumbent LibDem in case the Conservative got in? We will never know, for there are can’t be many soft Labour votes left in this constituency, and the flow of votes from LibDem to SNP and the Conservatives will be much greater. The outcome will depend on how this breaks and not on Ex-Labour voters.

There will be constituencies too where local considerations of no relevance to the Westminster will Trump national trends.

“If Cameron gets a huge majority it will be because as many people want rid of this Labour government as want his Tory one and he would do well to remember that.”

MORI must have heard your concerns Peter:-

37/31/17 ……………..!

Alec-your moment has come.