Conservatives remain 14 points ahead
According to the Press Association (and Vincent Moss!) there is a new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s most recent poll just over a week ago, are CON 41%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 18%(+1).
Clearly there is no real change here, with the Conservative lead sticking at 14 points. There is also a ComRes poll due out tonight. I don’t have the full figures yet, but Henry Macrory has twittered that it too shows a Conservative lead of 14 points (their last poll had a 13 point Tory lead).
UPDATE: The ComRes poll is now up on their website. The topline figures are CON 39%(-1), LAB 25%(-2), LDEM 17%(-1).
The same 14 point lead as YouGov, but all three parties are slightly lower and “others” are up by 4 points to 19%, the highest level of support for smaller parties in any poll since June (and significantly higher than anyone but Angus Reid – other than them no one has had them above 15 since September). It breaks down to Green 6%(+1), UKIP 5%(+2), BNP 3%(+1), SNP 3%(nc), PC 1%(+0.5%), so the biggest increase was UKIP, but all the minor parties have increased.
ComRes asked some questions on Afghanistan, showing the now normal lack of public support, but more interestingly they asked whether people thought the Sun was unfair in its treatment of Gordon Brown’s letter to the mother of Jamie Janes – 60% of people thought it was.
Filed under: Communicate, Voting Intention, YouGov
So much for Labour’s hope that it might get some sympathy after the backlash against The Sun over ‘lettergate’….maybe the government is at the stage where even if people are sympathetic that doesn’t translate into people wanting to vote for it?
The 14 point lead is still incredibly consistent and has been for months.
I can’t see Brown winning next year – to do so would need a 10 point erosion.
ComRes result from Politics Home:
Con 39%(-1)
Lab 25%(-1)
Lib Dem 17%(-1)
Others 19%(+3)
What do people think?
I did say at the time that the reaction to the Sun story wouldn’t make much difference. I suspect that Labour needs to have a string of better weeks to start any shift in the polls. It is interesting though that Brown has ended the week with much better coverage and signs of nervousness among some Tories.
I’m also highly tickled to read that the Sun has had to issue a formal apology for mispelling a name – a certain Mrs Janes I gather….
So Brown ended the week with better coverage?
Would that be the revolt over abolishing child tax credit, that the whole Euro zone has escaped recession but we still haven’t or that the G20 poured cold water on all browns plans for the banks, or that the EU has taken over on what to do on hedge funds form City of London. So if thats a good end of the week for the government I’d hate to see a bad one. Labour down to 25% again, not looking good, tisk tock tick tock…….
very little change – not much to add this time.
I think the Comres one has picked up some temporary rise in Others, which looks a bit odd.
I think the cons will be fairly pleased as they have had a less than brilliant week.
Maybe this is the rise in others.
Its looking like there is a strong possibility that the ‘others’ will collectively double their support on the 2005 GE. I good probability is that it will be Green 4, UKIP 3, BNP 2, SNP 3, PC 1.
In todays guardian Polly Toynbee offers a direct challenge to labour over where their loyalties are “leader or country” in a last ditched attempt to have Brown replaced to save the country from the tories.
Steve Richards of the Guardian makes an interesting case for Brown as the only candidate for EU president saying it will be better for Britain and the EU as he does not have the baggage of Iraq Blair does.
Not that Blair and Milliband are out of the running for EU posts will Mandleson encourage him to move onto “bigger and better” things as EU president, and by doing say making way for a new leader.
The main message for me is that whenever the commentariat feels (usually with perfectly reasonable justification) that one of the two main parties has had a good or a bad week, the Con/Lab gap in the polling shifts remarkably little. Aside from some short-lived wobbles during the conference season, the overall picture has barely shifted since before the summer.
I think the electorate has made up its mind.
The Tories, I think, were gifted an increased core support of 39 through the 10p abolishen and the consequential impressive local council win they got.
I expect the Tories to gain AT LEAST 41%, mainly due to UKIP getting only 3%.
Lib Dems core support is now 17, although I think I think they will get AT LEAST 19%, mainly due to Green getting only 4%.
Keldrone,
Sorry, but I couldn’t disagree more about the electorate having made up their minds.
Depending on how things enfold in the coming months
the result could be anywhere between Cons 41-46, Lab 20-27, Lib Dems 19-25.
A lot depends on how the British economy performs, and how it performs in relations to other countries.
20 weeks to go to the campaign, a 10 percentage point increase at least needed by Labour = 1% increase needed by Labour every fortnight. Not much sign of that happening yet.
Philip JW
I think what Keldrone meant was that the electorate have made up their minds on who the next government should be. On that, it seems, you agree with him.
Someone on Political Betting has posted regional splits. They may not be reliable because of the small sample in each area but they give a rough idea:
“England/Wales Regional Splits:
C-Lab-Lib
SE/London 49-20-18
Midlands 47-18-17
North 32-32-20
Wales/S West 32-23-17″
The figures for the Midlands are interesting. Didn’t there used to be an adage that the Midlands acted as a bellwether for the whole country in GEs?
On this Poll It does seem Polly Toynbee could be right with her leader “The by election victory does not alter the polls victory is impossible under Brown labour MPs must act or leave us with the conservatives”
If the Midlands figures are even slightly correct they would lead to a near wipeout for Labour in the region.
Sorry, I perhaps should have been clearer. I think my point is that whenever the Tories’ support falls… so does Labour’s, and vice-versa. The only meaningful fluctuation I’ve seen since the end of Spring has been in the “others” vote, which seems to affect the mainstream parties more or less equally.
It seems to me to look almost inevitable that we are looking at a Conservative victory which will give Cameron a perfectly workable majority, but fall short of a 100+ majority landslide. My guess (and it’s only a guess) is that most people know which of the main parties, if any, they would support by now. All that fluctuates is the proportion of people who intend to support a major party at all, as opposed to making a protest vote or abstention. This group of people seems to be fairly evenly split across the spectrum. I think it would take a truly seismic event to shift this now.
Just what I’ve always thought. A Labour Wipeout in most of England with perhaps just a few pockets of loyal solid Labour Constiuences and even then it will be interesting to see if their Majorities are slashed!
They even appear to be deserting Labour in Wales which should prove very interesting.
On top of all this the Conservatives quite often poll a slightly higher figure on the night than the Opinion Polls have been giving them.
My Prediction.
Con ~ 40-43
Lab ~ 24-27
Lib Dem ~ 17-19
Which in anybodies book gives the Conservatives a very handsome Majority indeed.
I find it amazing that Labour is still over 20% after week after week Brown reverse Midas moments
Re Colin Mk2 and Labour still polling over 20% I’d say the answer was Scotland/Wales and to a lesser extent the North East.
If it were just London and South East/Midlands/Yorkshire/East/North West/South West I’d say Labour would be consistently below 20%
@ Darrell – .”maybe the government is at the stage where even if people are sympathetic that doesn’t translate into people wanting to vote for it?”
All of the comments about this I’ve heard from friends and colleagues and read in political discussion groups have been along the lines of “I can’t stand Brown but The Sun was really out of order on this”. It’s not an issue that would make anyone not already intending to vote Labour change their mind. I don’t think anyone is really going to change their mind about how to vote out of pity and especially not pity limited to a single incident.
The downside of the controversy for Brown is that by inspiring pity, he also seems pitiful – and pitiful people are not considered leadership material by most.
James is right pity for Brown will not translate to voting intention it is the downside for the cons whjich is possible.
Should Tory connivance with the Sun stick plus the stage managed photo shoot for Cameron story seap in to the public sub-consciousness brand Cameron will be damaged.
These are the little things which can add to Lisbon as a drip drip but a hell of a lot more will be needed for their score to fall below 38% which is the magic number.
Re the numbers, Labour realistic hope is 33-34% so they need to gain by 1% a month.
Have to be 30% going in to the new year which they have never hit consistently for a long time except for a bit of conference froth and a couple of polls at the edge of moe soon after.
Colin MK2 “I find it amazing that Labour is still over 20%”
Looking at the ComRes poll if you strip out Scotland then Labour polling at c23% in England and Wales. Also a crude estimate is that if you strip out the safest 150 Labour seats in England & Wales Labour polling at an average of c15% in the remainder.
Polls still stuck as I have been saying. Populus was clearly a bit of a rogue (they need to watch out – their last 8 polls have all underestimated the CLead, by an average of 1.8 points) and there is nothing resembling a significant trend.
@Jim Jam
Is 33-34% realistic for Labour?
I’m not convinced they can get near it.
They only polled 35% in 1992. Their support, i feel, will be much lower than that figure.
24-25% of our voting electorate would vote for the Labour party if they presented us with a pig wearing a red rosette. I’m not sure there are a great amount of people on top of that convinced enough to actually go to the ballot box and put an ‘x’ on the paper.
Unless a chain of unexpected events unfold, 27-28% is realistic.
I think that the consistency in the polls is remarkable. People seem to have made up their minds.
With a peg-on-my-nose I will be lending my support to Cammers. Indeed I have placed money – six-months out – on a Tory majority of between 0-150 (minimum win 25%).
I cannot see the Government gaining any bounce anywhere. Indeed, the plethora of U-turns* this week show how desperate they see their current position.
* Wokkas, immigration, nusery-benefits, Harman’s attack – today – on the Quangocracy, etc.
Keldorne is correct that we seem to have a settled position with Tories holding a double digit lead over labour – probably somewhere around 13-15%. We do see some volatitlity in others, but this does not appear to be impacting teh central position.
The trend graph on all polls since 1 Jan on this site is instructive – especially the Con/Lab position since beginning of June.
Equally, if one looks at the detailed figures, there have been only five isolated polls showing the Con lead in single figures, and these are matched by five polls showing a lead of 20% or more.
It really does seem that even “events” have no more than a passing efefct on teh underlying position. With less than six months to go (and it may be even sooner than 6 May) it is hard to see what, if anything, Labour can do to change what looks to be an inevitable defeat.
@Andy Stidwell
If your regional splits are near accurate, Labour must feel very uncomfortable. Whatever people think of Cameron, he has made some difference.
The moral of these latest figures is @SUN “Newspaper” just shut up and get back to the x factor where you belong.
@Alec
The main happy event for Labour has been the win in the East End of Glasgow. The fact that they have tried to hype such an event proves the scarcity of good news from any other area.
The Sun’s disgusting behaviour left Brown looking pityful. Not a good thing for a PM.
JimJam 24-25% of our voting electorate would vote for the Labour party if they presented us with a pig wearing a red rosette.
Most probably the same thing could be said about most of the political parties, and I find this state of affairs a bit worrying. Looks like most people fail to think a bit, and the election results always decided by the minority. Not good for democracy maybe PR would bring some useful changes in the way the country is run and reintroduce some semblance of democracy.
Danny Boy – I said a realistic hope is 33/34%.
In other words no chance of higher and therefore no chance of even the largest party but an outside chance of denying the cons outright victory.
I go on to say that to achieve this level they need to be around 30% at the turn of the year and that they have not achieved this for some time – so we are not in disagreement on this ‘hope’ being unlikely.
I do think that 30-32% is achievable mainly because, not withstanding historical evidence, I think there will be a late dribble (not surge) away from the cons as those parts of the electorate who did badly under the them in the past will be reminded more as the GE approaches; and, there will be some ‘hold their nose’ former Labour voters come home.
I think the ‘dog whistle’ conference has done enough to dispel the LD’s beating them or getting within 5 points this time so the games up phenomenon will not occur and more of the Anti-Con majority in the country will end up voting Labour than current polls suggest.(Scotland may well be different)
Of course there is an even bigger anti-Labour majority in the UK as a whole and if LD supporting anti-Lab voters see an outside chance of the Gov’t hanging on they may switch to Con in some seats.
Issues and events come and go on a weekly basis – Expenses; Dodgy letters; By-elections etc., but the Tories keep returning big leads in the polls.
All this media hype of a possible hung-parliament is absolute rubbish – Cameron has it in the bag providing he doesn’t fall under the proverbial bus!
I’m sure we will see fluctuations in the polls, maybe the odd 8 or 9 point lead which will be seized on by desperate Labour supporters as evidence that the election is not a foregone conclusion.
I’m still betting that David Cemeron will be PM on May 7th with a comfortable but not overwhelming majority.
The UKPR average for Labour is now 26%. There are only 19-20 weeks to go before the campaign starts. It’s difficult to see how Labour can make the necessary progress in that amount of time. I don’t know if any party has ever been this low in the polls with so little time to go before an election and has been able to come out victorious.
For those on here who believe the next election is a foregone conclusion consider this clip from youtube at the beginning of the BBC’s Election Night coverage in 1979, the last time an incumbant Labour Government lost to the Conservatives. Once you have viewed it tell me what the prospects are of something similar happening in 2010. I would be interested in your views and the reasons for them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6seL-SsPV90&feature=related
@Andy Sidwell
I am sure the answer to that question is no Andy.
Excluding the Scottish figures from Table 6 of the Com res poll appears to show the following for England and Wales -
Con 41.1% : Lab 23.4% : LD 18.0% : Others 17.5%
For the lead of Con over Lab to be more than 3 times the size of Lab over LD lead seems rather dramatic (unless my calculations are wrong – entirely possible!)
OLDNAT, your calculations are correct. In addition, if you take out ‘the North’, Labour are only just over 20% in England and Wales.
I would hazard a guess that they also do poorly in the north west, and that the only good Labour figures in England are in the north-east and yorkshire. Shame the figures don’t allow us to see if this is true…
Mike R: I think if you take out South Yorkshire you’d find very poor figures for Labour in Yorkshire too.
I think it is extremely wrong that Labour have jerrymandered bounderaries so they can win even if they lose the next election if they do I will definately protest and demand they stand down.
Not so good for Labour in the North East either. ( Cant comment on LDs who seem to have a good chancemaybe in Newcastle seats and Durham City).
Hexham will remain Conservative, Tynemouth will be Conservative, Stockton South probably will be Conservative, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland should be Conservative and here in Sunderland Central we have a good outside chance !!
Paul – they haven’t. The boundaries are recommended by the independent boundary commission. The reasons for the perceived bias in the electoral system are explained here. While one of them is out of date boundaries, gerrymandered boundaries are not an issue.
Isn’t all this a bit pointless? “If you take out all the areas where Labour have a lot of support, the Conservatives are way ahead”.
Many comments on here suggest it would take a pretty seismic political event between now and the GE to prevent Cameron from winning.
Here’s a scenario that I reckon would stir things up. Imagine if Margaret Thatcher were to die just before the election? The news coverage would upstage the election itself and no doubt bring back all the old arguments that polarised the two main parties in the 1980s.
The question is – if this did happen, which party would stand to benefit most from the publicity such an event would bring?
I have just read Anthony’s analysis of why Tories are inclined to be at a disadvantage in distribution of seats.
The question, I suppose, why does it take so long to draw up new boundaries. A few days to draw up the new boundaries, a few weeks for consultation, or even make that months, and the new boundaries could be in place in a year. Perhaps this is a reform too far for the outgoing labour party but could pay dividends for a future Tory Government.
The analysis on Political Betting of who votes UKIP is more than a little interesting as it indicates, if I understand it right, far more support from ex labour voters than I would have expected.
UKIP and labour idealology and policies seem the complete opposite of each other. How can so many ex labour supporters vote UKIP?
John Lilburne
I agree. My original point was to take out the effect of a different political system. While the 3 main UK parties contest all seats in Scotland and clearly impact the composition of the UK Parliament directly, as opposed to NI, there is only sense in including Scottish polling if you believe that UNS applies equally to the Scottish 4 party system as it does in the English 3 party system.
It may be that UNS doesn’t apply within England either, but if so the entire structure of British polling is flawed.
@Davey – if the thing that’s driving a voter away from Labour is that they’re anti-EU, but they can’t bring themselves to vote Conservative, where do they go next?
I’m not in that position but it makes sense to me.
Surely it is the Tories strong pro-EU line that will do them more damage with desertions to UKIP than Labour. It seems to me that there are a lot of dont know and undecided who could go any way, or simply not vote. What do the actual share of predicted votes come down to when D/K and others are included rather than headline grabbing figures designed to sell papers.
Does anyone really think that the EU issue is really important in a westminster election? That’s gone bar for a few UKIP / BNP / far-right Tory extremists . It’s about local issues such as jobs, the economy generally for the vast majority… People vote for Westminster on Westminster issues as they understand them to be. EU is dealt with be people in EU elections. And Lisbon never concerned the average voter no matter how many people here chatter otherwise.
I agree with eric though that there is potential for the EU to cost tory votes–if the polls say easy tory win then the extreme right tories may well waste votes giving them to the fringe groups such as UKIP. There goes, what, 2%? There goes an easy Cameron landslide down to just a win…
This far out I will predict the following at the GE:
Con 38%
Labour 32%
LD 18%
UKIP 2%
BNP2%
OTHERS (SNP, PLAID, NI ETC) 8%
Richard,
It’s is in the utmost interests of the Tories that most people forget that Thatcher ever existed. That’s not to say that a sizable portion of the British population don’t have a lot of admiration for Thatcher (as well as some die-hard worshippers) but those people are going to be voting Tory anyway. What is more important for the Tories is that every possible fragrance should be imbalmed upon the party to make it easier for marginal voters to hold their noses and vote Conservative come June; the last thing they need is the marmite smell (some love it, some hate it) of Thatcherism all over them.
The concomitants of the new (old? newer that Heath but older than what new would be?) Tory line on the EU are impossible to predict. Even if we assume that people are willing to switch their intention based on EU-affairs (and haven’t already done so) there are presumably some potential Tory voters who were put off by the European policy, but are now more at ease with the “We’ll look for a good deal within the Lisbon Treaty” line. Perhaps they cancelled out any Lisbon fallout. Perhaps Lisbon was never an issue. One thing is for sure: if the Tories were going to suffer from the Czech signing, it would have happened by now.
Eric,
Where are the undecided voters? I’m perhaps misunderstanding the polls, but I don’t see where they fit in. I’m not aware of any election-changing undecided voters. If Labour or the Tories are going to extend their shares, it will have to be by taking them off other parties, which is probably why the polls have been so static for so long.
The Times this am claims that Labour have given up on their 60 closest marginals (under 3000 maj). This is in order to spend more on firmer Labour territory to avoid a rout on May 6th. We all know they are very stretched financially.
What was also interesting to me, was a lady poster suggesting that their affairs in Scotland were far from rosy in certain marginals. This poster went on to say the recent Glasgow east end result was very specific and in no way typical of Scotland.
I think this later point was already made clear by “Scotsperts”
on this post.
Jack
“Does anyone really think that the EU issue is really important in a westminster election? That’s gone bar for a few UKIP / BNP / far-right Tory extremists . It’s about local issues such as jobs, the economy generally for the vast majority…”
What many people don’t seem to realize is that the majority of our laws are now made in Brussels, not Westminster. Those who don’t like this situation might vote in the most anti-EU way available in their Westminster constituency. This could be UKIP, BNP or some even smaller party.
Pete B,
If a significant number of people are planning to vote that way, they haven’t shown up in the polls yet. On Comres, the Greens are more significant than either UKIP or the BNP.
For someone to vote UKIP or BNP at the next election over the EU, it would have to be such a big issue for them that it would be more important than giving Brown and Labour a kicking. I’m not sure that many right-wing people are like that.
@Bill Patrick
I absolutly agree Bill I was about to say somthing similar.
I am a Tory voter who is anti federal Europe but I am certainly not going to waste a vote on UKIP. Change of govenment is just to important.
The two most succesful PMs in recent times have been Mrs Thatcher and Tony Blair. Mrs Thatcher was better at retaining her vote , polling 42.3% in the third election, while Tony’s last poll was 36.1%.
Today both tory and labour might be happy with these percentages.
I suppose the word thatcher may galvanise the old labour vote that has deserted labour, particularly across the borders.
DC’s wishes to present a different face of toryism to strengthen his support in the north, scotland and wales. However, I do not think it is accurate to portray Mrs. T as a big vote loser, particular in the FPTP situation.
Her name will always be highly unpopular with most on the centre and extreme left, just as I suspect the name of Brown has become equally unpopular with those on the centre and extreme right.
Many of the moderate’ left dispise Thatcher as well.
Andy (re North-east) and King Harold segue nicely in to a discussion some of us have been having on some (Teesside part) of the NEast threads.
60 seats as per KH report of the Times does not seem enough to many of us and seats up to 100 or so should perhaps be given up (with a few exceptions).
In the NE, for example, should Labour try to hold Stockton South (123 target) they may lose Middlesbrough S and E Cleveland (174) as well to a small majority which they could have held if all local resources were focused there.
In essence should Labour accept defeat and try minimise the damage.
For now they should probably continue to put human effort in to those seats around the Tory overall majority level (100-150 targets) but if the poll lead is 14pts in mid March a re-think will be necessary. (may be earlier if the polls get worse).
Seats 150-200 target need support now or else a change of tack in March maybe too late.
FWIW, In think S South and Tynemouth will go Con and Labour hold on in MS&CE, just.
It must be ‘fun’ for party stategists of all shades in areas of the country with lots of marginals.
Davey,
Hating Thatcher was never about being right-wing or left-wing. Many left-wing people, like Gordon Brown, have a deep and loving admiration for Margaret Thatcher, because many (but not all) left-wing people are power-worshippers. Equally, many right-wing people, like almost every right-wing person I know, despise Thatcher at the bottom of their hearts.
What’s the key factor then? Regions. Prior to Thatcher, British politics was very much class based. I can remember reading a political science book from the 1960s which featured the line “The most apparent feature of British politics is that it is divided on a social, rather than regional basis; almost all of its regions are stunningly uniform.”
Thatcher’s revolution (apparent from beginning New Consensus politics) was the ultra-regionalisation of British politics, most clearly in Scotland, where the Conservatives are generally only found in graveyards. Now, Cameron will pick-up some Scottish seats in 2010 (he has the right name for it, if nothing else) but only if people in Scotland can force themselves to forget- if only for the first Thursday of the month- he’s a member of the party of Thatcher, Tebbitt and Lawson.
Thatcher is a danger because she puts off marginal voters and at the end of the day we are the masters of the UK electoral system. Most marginal voters are broadly centrist: they’ll have voted Conservative at some elections, Labour at others, maybe even Lib Dem once or twice.
However, even if Thatcher died in the next 7 months, I don’t think it would have a bigger impact than slashing the Conservative’s potential majority a little. Indeed, if Brown comes under pressure to give her a state funeral, it could actually end up costing Brown some votes.
The variables are uncertain, but what is certain is that the current political climate is working for Cameron, so any change is an unnecessary risk. The Cameron plan- keep mum until Oct 2009 then lay out a big set of policies with a “I promise you blood, sweat and tears” theme- has worked very well so far, but the consequences of another big political moment are very unpredictable and thus I suspect not in the Tories’ interest.
Details of the latest YouGov poll now up on their site.
England and Wales only (ie taking out the Scottish political system) figures are
Party, %
Con, 42.6%
Lab, 26.7%
LD, 18.5%
Other, 12.6%
16% Tory lead over Lab.
@Bill Patrick
We may not be twins politically Bill but once again I agree. It has taken me a while to understand that region is King nowadays.
Its not what your father did for a living any more, its where you grew up. Certainly in the under 40s a Bank Manager’s kids from
Merseyside are Labour and a digger drivers kids from St Albans
are Tory.
Bill Patrick,
“If a significant number of people are planning to vote that way, they haven’t shown up in the polls yet.”
It’s small numbers I know, but aren’t ‘Others’ holding up rather better after the euro elections than was expected?
“For someone to vote UKIP or BNP at the next election over the EU, it would have to be such a big issue for them that it would be more important than giving Brown and Labour a kicking. I’m not sure that many right-wing people are like that.”
The numbers are small, true, (left, right and centre by the way), but those few who realize that most laws affecting employment for instance are made in Europe might still vote for a minority party. As may the probably greater number who feel let down by the lack of a referendum.
And to those who are indulging in a bit of ritual ‘Thatcher-bashing’, please remember that she rescued the country from bankruptcy (IMF called in), and social disintegration (mass strikes all the time). Before I am attacked, I am not saying that she was perfect, just that she did achieve a lot of good things which seem to be easily forgotten.
Pete B
Your comments on Thatcher (which I agree with) merely illustrate the type of argument that would dominate any election should Mrs T pop her clogs in the coming months. There would be endless raking up of the past, and for every positive aspect, there will undoubtedly be a negative comment. The result will be the re-opening of many old wounds, and for David Cameron I fear it could knock his campaign off the rails a bit, simply because of the inevitable Tory bashing that the news coverage would bring. This, in spite of the many comments like your own that will be supportive of Mrs Thatcher’s premiership.
I think the hatred of Thatch is overstated somewhat. For every working class voter in the Welsh valleys, South Yorkshire pits or Tyneside dockyards that she repelled there was a working class voter in other parts of the country that loved her (and abandoned Labour as a result). There is quite a lot of “it’d never have happened under Thatch” sentiment out there, and the fact that almost nothing that she did in office has been reversed after 12 years of Labour says quite a lot. If loss-making steelworks are such a great thing, why didn’t Labour open any? If privatisation was such a disaster, why did Labour keep on doing it? And contrast the “Thatcher” way of going to war with the “Blair/Brown” way. I think if Thatcher were to become a news item (for any reason, lets not be morbid) then the effect would unlikely to be any worse for the Tories than “neutral”.
King Harold,
I haven’t divulged much in the way of my political opinions on here (and not at all besides economic policy) and I’m unfamiliar with yours, but I like to think that this is a site that deals with facts and therefore agreement between people of widely different values is possible.
Pete B,
Possibly, but if a significant number are going to do that, they aren’t turning up in the polls.
Neil A,
The problem for the Conservatives re. Thatcher is not that the country hates her. She, after all, won 3 elections and the opinions that brought her down on Europe were vindicated on Black Wednesday when the ERM proved indeed to be the Eternal Recession Mechanism.
HOWEVER, no-one (aside perhaps from a few of the 4% or so who want to vote UKIP) who loves Thatcher is going to vote Tory because they are reminded that Thatcher was a Conservative. On the other hand, many would probably have problems “holding their nose and voting Tory” if David Cameron had recentely been singing her praises on TV. It would probably be a nothing-to-win situation for the Tories.
ICM poll in Guardian tonight shows
Cons 42%
Lab 29%
Libs 19%
Bit of a boost for Labour but not much to shout about but the worrying thing for him is the underlining intentions of the voters polled. Most would welcome a Tory victory in comming election and a far bigger % say cameron is more decisive and stronger than brown and thats even with lab voters
Anthony,
I can’t seem to post anything in the thread about the Green Poll on Scotland in the Archive.
The questions are now up on the YouGov site and I have some serious concerns about the wording used, particularly for the questions about the Trump application and the Forth Bridge.
Personaly I don’t like the idea of using CPO’s for the development as if a developer can’t get someone to sell that is there problem, not the Councils.
But I have my doubts about the validity of the answers given the questions asked.
Here they are.
“Aberdeenshire Council earlier this month refused to rule out the use of Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs) to remove people from land which Donald Trump wishes to use for a housing and golf development.
Compulsory Purchase Orders could therefore be used to force residents to leave their homes.
Supporters of the CPO claim that the resort would be a welcome investment in the local area and could create more than 1200 new jobs, whilst the residents argue that use of CPOs undermines their right to remain in their homes.
To what extent do you support or oppose compulsory purchase orders being used to evict local residents from their homes to accommodate Donald Trump’s housing and golf development in Aberdeenshire in this instance?”
and
“As you may know, the Forth Road Bridge is deteriorating, and action will need to be taken to ensure a continued road link across the eastern Firth of Forth.
The Scottish Government has proposed building a new bridge at an estimated cost of up to £2,300m which it will pay for using public Scottish funds, but borrow initially from the UK government in order to help spread the cost.
According to a report by the Forth Estuary Transport Authority, the existing Forth Road Bridge could be repaired, rather than replaced, for an estimated cost of up to £122m.
Those in favour of REPLACING the bridge argue that it needs to be widened, to reduce congestion, and that a new windshield should be built to protect travellers.
Those in favour of REPAIRING the bridge argue that replacing the bridge altogether would put an unnecessary burden on public funds.
Which ONE of the following statements comes”
Peter.
Your analysis of regionality and Thatcher is spot on.
I have said the SNP can only reasonably expect to get half of the 20 seats they target but I’d revise that upwards by two seats if there was a state funeral for Thatcher organised by a Labour government in the two months before the election..
The BBC probably have the programming worked out in detail already and will use hours of cheap programming from their news archive with a face to camera link and voiceover, with four cheap retired politicians in the studio.
Bill Patrick
There is regionality within Scotland.
Labour won an election in Glasgow. Is the Pope still a Catholic?
@ Pete B
“The figures for the Midlands are interesting. Didn’t there used to be an adage that the Midlands acted as a bellwether for the whole country in GEs?”
In what way are these figures interesting? They have absolutely not statistical significance!
“What many people don’t seem to realize is that the majority of our laws are now made in Brussels, not Westminster.”
And what you don’t seem to realize is that this is utter rubbish!
Jack,
1) Figures can be interesting without being statistically significant. It just means that you don’t draw definite conclusions from them.
2) I’ll be more specific. Open Europe have a report that says that 72% of the cost of regulation in the UK is EU-derived. Not quite the same thing I know, but it’s the best I can find.
Here’s the link, but it’s quite a long post.
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/how-many-of-our-laws-are-made-in.html
The YOUGOV poll is totally off the wall. Many who participate as members of the panel with Yougov have been disinfranchised. They send a survey and before answering, they say it is invalid. I would seriously question the veracity of Yougov polls from now on.
BGARVIE,
In order to get a balanced representative sample YouGov like other pollsters asks a lot more people to participate than it actually needs.
Once it has the numbers it needs it closes the Poll as they no longer need more people to vote and as its paying them that doesn’t make financial sense to do so.
Most of us from time to time have had a survey e-mail and when we go on it has been closed.
The creditability of YouGovs polls can be judged by both their accuracy, which appears to be amongst the best and the fact that they have a growing clientele of satisfied customers.
Peter.