That’s the real issue, and a very different answer.

NewLabour, no. Old Labour: same answer as for Conservative.

They need at least Bavarianisation. Independence for the Scottish Labour party, or independence for Scotland, it doesn’t matter. Either will do.

The SNP claim, with some justice, that the other three large parties are controlled from London and this is even more true of Labour than the others.

Could I see the Socialists in Scotland winning a third of the seats? Same answer:

“Yes, but only under independence if the SNP fragments.” … and if Labour implodes.

For the moment, the Socialists are spending more time with their lawyers. They would need to be united, and give up their propensity for a truly Presyterian level of schism. That would be against all experience.

The would also have to give up another bad habit too.

Socialists use elections campaigns (because they have few other opportunities) to preach their faith, instead of arguing for their policies showing how they would work.

Conservatives do this too, as Teresa May did the other day. If you are preaching to the converted it is OK to say that unrestricted free financial markets will create vast riches for a few, but Hey! that’s OK because they will flash their money about and the person who cuts their hair will get £100 a time.

Or the Nationalists will tell you that an independent Scotland will be a land flowing with milk and honey, and it will be organic milk and the honey will be low GI and good for diabetics … or the Greens will fix Global warming in three weeks.

In six (at least) party PR Scotland any party which is going to form a government is going to need a lot of support from those who do not accept the whole credo of the party (or any other party). A party with wide support cannot be a sect, but a broad church.

So you can’t argue from the premise that the basic tenets of the faith are accepted by all rational people and that it only needs to interpreted to show that the policy is bound to work. You have to first persuade voters that the policy is worth a try, wait till they realise for themselves that it does indeed work, and then explain why it worked because of general principles.

Socialists usually try to start at the wrong end.

Yes, but only under independence if the SNP fragments.

I can see a time two elections away or maybe only two years away when they can be in coalition with the SNP in the Scottish Parliament.

Bavarianisation (or independence) and rebranding as the responsible party of the thinking Scottish right (as compared with the recent positioning as the Thatcherite Nasty Party ignorant of anything on this side of the border) is what they need.

They are already moving in that direction. Notwithstanding a few lapses, under Ms Goldie they are smarter operators in a minority government situation than the LibDems.

There are economic rightwingers amongst the SNP whom they could cosy up to up after independence, when they would be a purely Scottish party.

To reach the former position when Scottish Conservatives had the majority of the popular vote (the only party in any part of the UK to do so) they would similar opponents, and that is inconcievable.

Labour then was an association of class warriors and a strong Roman Catholic base. The middle class, and those who aspired to be middle class, together with a handful of rabid working class protestants, found it impossible to identify with Labour even if a Labour government would have been in their narrow economic interests.

The LibDems had yet to build support at a local level. If one should reach a better third place in a general election than a barely saved deposit, commentators would look for a reason why they should come back from the dead and point to an old National Liberal history in the constituency.

The large heavy industry employer with unionised Labour is gone altogether but so too have the One Nation Conservatives who were the backbone of the party. Fundamentalist free marketeers and English nationalists have repelled some, but most have just died off, and their class solidarity is no longer relevant because of the Americanisation of culture.

Sectarianism in Schools remains, but religion is not what it was either.

I personally doubt it. You should have a look at the polling data from Yougov, the Tory vote is distinguishable from mainstream voters. This is especially true for views on the Scottish Parliament. If you’re a Tory, the silver lining is that their voters seem fairly entrenched in their views (i.e. they are unlikely to vote for anyone else). The other side of the coin, if you take John’s example of Argyll, I would have thought they may pick up the seat only if the Lib Dem AND SNP vote is split fairly evenly (I do not suspect they will see a rush of voters suddenly voting conservative). The net effect being, Tories will pick up seats only where the anti-conservative sentiment (i.e. SNP voters voting to keep the Tories out) is the weakest.

The question you have to ask is, where will voters come from for this Tory revival? A problem as I see it is that Labour seem to portray themselves quite well as a West of Scotland party in Scotland. The problem is that SNP-LibDem-Conservative are all vying for the seats outside of Glasgow. A modest Tory recovery will only win a couple of seats. A recovery you are talking about would result in the Tories taking everything from SNP/LibDem – which I cannot see happening. Labour know that if they keep Glasgow and the West, they will always be a powerful force in Scotland (which I should not lament so much (sorry James)).

An interesting analysis, particularly on Tory gains. However, there was a time when Tories held alot of seats in Scotland. The Thatcher years changed that. Even from England I can see that the Tories in Scotland have rebranded as the Scottish Tories.

Can you see a time (not in the next couple of elections) when say a third of MPs in Scotland are Tory?