The trick in the public sector (NHS) is to actually see the consultant. If you don’t then your simile may stand up.

Worsley & Eccles South also seems to be likely to leave the loving embrace of the party.

Stoke on Trent South could see Labour’s vote being sappered by the P N B, facilitating a Tory smash n grab.

I don’t see the sense in assuming that the swing will be largely monopolar and very 20th century; I think it’s up for grabs.

Why would they? Kate Hoey (is inexplicably) liked here. Polling seems to suggest that the swing has been lower in London than in other parts of the country. I think! Maybe somebody could clear this up?

It should be said that several of the seats Anthony mentions are actually ones which I and others have already discussed on this site as likely to swing more than the average against Labour, e.g. Scunthorpe and Stoke on Trent South. Reasons include the high number of (male particularly?) working class voters who may be deserting Labour in large numbers, and also the concentration of such seats in regions such as the West Midlands which may be swinging particularly hard against Labour, as Anthony’s excellent large-scale poll suggested recentl. There are understandable reasons which can be used to explain such voting behaviour plausibly, e.g. particular losses of manufacturing industry in such seats.

We will have to see what happens in seats such as Scunthorpe that are particularly caught up in expenses problems – there is a lack of precedent from a psephologist’s point of view.

London seats have historically tended to swing more than average in whichever ay the political wind is blowing, which may affect Vauxhall and Hackney North and South Newington. And London seats can be affected rapidly by demographic change. I don’t know about the specific circumstances of these two seats, but it is quite possible they are in jeopardy. Labour could have problems in Vauxhall over the Olympic Games.

Actually, there are seats even in the areas Anthony describes as “absolutely safe” for Labour about which people posting on this site are not totally certain. These include some mining seats, such as Ashfield and possibly even some Yorkshire seats (see e.g. discussion on the Hemsworth thread), although it is more likely that Labour candidates in these seats will be returned with, for them, shockingly reduced majorities.

Further, it is difficult to disentangle from the opinion polls how far the anti-Labour swing will go to the LibDems in “safe” Northern seats, for instance Newcastle Upon Tyne North, where the Tories are nowhere. If the anti-Labour vote does get its collective act together, Labour does stand to lose a number of Northern English city seats – indeed the LibDems may well get win such seats whilst losing in notionally much better prospects such as three or four way Scottish marginals. There has been relevant discussion on this site on the Liverpool Wavertree thread.

Like Anthony, I don’t see a national Tory lead over Labour of 28% when the election comes as at all likely. But there are a number of seats where Labour were 25-30% ahead of the next party in 2005 which, as indicated in my discussion above, look vulnerable for particular reasons, and it is not so easy to identify which these are. I think it not unreasonable to suggest that there are only 120 Labour seats, perhaps even less, where the Government is for all practical purposes certain to retain the seat.

To come round full circle, one reason for this state of affairs may be that the Tories currently have much better resources than Labour to gain intelligencewith which to target their campaigns.

P.S. for Anthony, I accidentally posted half this contribution, which has come up “awaiting moderation”. You may care to tidy things up.

It should be said that several of the seats Anthony mentions are actually ones which I and others have already discussed on this site as likely to swing more than the average against Labour, e.g. Scunthorpe and Stoke on Trent South. Reasons includethe high number of (male particularly?) working class voters who may be deserting Labour in particular, and also the concentration of such seats in regions such as the West Midlands which may be swinging particularly hard against Labour, as Anthony’s excellent large-scale poll suggested recently, and for understandable reasons, e.g. particular losses of manufacturing industry in such seats.

We will have to see what happens in seats such as Scunthorpe that are particulalry caught up in expenses problems.

London seats have historically tended to swing more than average in whichever ay the political wind is blowing, which may affect Vauxhall and Hackney North and South Newington. And London seats can be affected rapidly by demographic change. I don’t know about the specific cirucmstances of these two seats, but it is

Or that Journalists reporting on it aren;’t either. Or the Tories gloating over these figures over on ConHome aren’t either!