Angus Reid show 14 point Tory lead
Posted on November 6th, 2009 by Anthony Wells
PoliticalBetting has a new voting intention poll from AngusReid. Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 38%(-2), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 20%(nc), Others 17%.
The poll was finished yesterday – I don’t have a start date, but their last poll took 2 days so the chances are it was conducted at much the same time as YouGov’s and would have taken in the Conservative’s announcement of their new policy on the EU. There is a slight fall in the Conservative level of support, but no great leap.
As with Angus Reid’s poll last month, Labour are at a lower level of support than recorded by other pollsters (probably due to weighting) and “others” are at a higher level (for reasons I still don’t know).
Filed under: AngusReid, Voting Intention
If this is the impact of Cameron having the rug pulled by ratification, I will settle for it.
Others are very high in this poll – UKIP/Greens/BNP must be around 5% each.
Political betting has the figures: UKIP – 6%, BNP – 4%, Green – 3%, SNP/PC – 4%.
UKIP/BNP/Green have held onto about 40% of their support from the Euro election in this poll, when they polled 31% combined.
I don’t see UKIP getting 6% at a GE. Possibly the BNP and Green scores could prove to be correct. But this election is going to be about getting rid of Labour. In that context I can see at least some of those currently saying they will vote UKIP concluding that a Tory vote is just that bit more meaningful.
This poll is really bad for Labour but also slightly worrying For the Conservatives they really should be consistently above the 40% mark. Labour have clearly lost the next Election but the Conservatives have not yet won it. 38% simply is not good enough they really should be aiming to do better than this.
I should imagine quite a few people saying they will vote UKIP is a knee jerk reaction to no refernedum. Stubbornness due to disappointment will fade come a GE as in reality do the ukipers really want a labour govenment again that surely are the antithesis to their perceived grievances or the Libs who are even more pro europe. Will ukipers really cut off their noses to spit their faces?
As for the boost to the BNP that will be harder for labour to recover as most disillusioned staunch white working class voters have no where else to go. Few weeks down the line it will still propably be 41/27/18 or there abouts
Why isn’t Labour share lower than 24%? I can’t believe there are any sane people in this country who would even consider voting for them.
RC
“Why isn’t Labour share lower than 24%? I can’t believe there are any sane people in this country who would even consider voting for them.”
That is your opinion… please… please keep it to yourself… particularly the bit about what you describe as “Sane” people…
It would be nice for you to think a bit more before making comments…
For starters… it is not pleasant to discriminate against people who have severe mental illness… that is what you have done… whether you meant to or not…
For those people who suffer from severe mental illness… life is extremely difficult as it is… without being subjected to such comments…
In any case… it is those who are so called “Insane”… who are the most caring… sensitive… and “Sane” people around…
I would kindly ask you bear this in mind in the future…
Lastly… I might mention that I am far from being a member of the so called PC Police/ Brigade either…
@RC – “Why isn’t Labour share lower than 24%? I can’t believe there are any sane people in this country who would even consider voting for them.” – a somewhat biased post? As was this, from Keiran W – “But this election is going to be about getting rid of Labour. ” For many (possibly more people than those voting Conservative) this election will be about keeping the Tories out.
This poll is interesting. AW suggests Labour are lower due to weighting, but the at present unexpectedly high score for others is interesting, as is a Tory score of 38%. I’m not fully trusting of a new polling group showing the Tories (or Labour) this low, although it would be perfectly possible for this level of Tory support to be explained by the EU story. If other polls converge on a Tory level like this it will be very interesting, but as yet there’s no sign of that.
james
Chill out and stop being so sensitive. Its an opinion of RC’s and probably held by millions of others. No need to get all pc about it. Its a figure of speech
james thurston:
yes to right im not PC but feel you are right in saying what you have.
but we do have to ask why labour are still polling at 24% a figure more like 20-22% could be more realistic and 40-42% for the conservatives. this whole mess about the EU will turn i feel towards labour as the party that sold us down the river.
KIERAN W:
Your comment about UKIP is probably correct – except for one thing: if the Tories still have a 15% lead in the polls on polling day, a lot of Tory/UKIP voters will feel they have the leeway to vote UKIP because it would be obvious that the Tories were going to win. If, on the other hand, the Tory lead is down to single figures most of them would probably vote Tory as you say.
4% for PC/SNP tells you nothing.
A lot of the “insane” Labour supporters are in the West of Scotland and they will never vote Conservative.
Some of them might or might not vote SNP and it would be good to know what difference, if any, that might make in seats and whether Alex Salmond’s optimistic 20 might, with the LibDems, hold the balance of power – at a price.
I don’t think that can happen in this election for the SNP are too far behind in most places, but if there is a significant reduction in the large urban Labour majorities they could be vulnerable next time, when FPTP could flip over to favour the SNP.
That election might not be so far away because an inconveniently small majority is likely, in one of a number of ways, result in an early election.
Please excuse the sudden change of gear here, but does anyone know why we are not getting any polling data from the Glasgow North East by-election which takes place this coming Thursday?
Labour and Brown are the ones who pushed for Ireland to move up their vote so they could put the tories in this position.
You would think the public would be angry at Brown playing politics with Lisbon.
You would think the public would be angry at labour promising the public a vote on Lisbon and going back on their word. If the public didn’t vote in labour in 2005 the tories would have given the public the vote on the referendum before it became law.
Cameron did nothing wrong. The treaty is now law. Trying to negotiate power away is better than Brown giving EU more power.
This is unreal how this issue is used against the opposition instead of it hurting the govt in power.
Yeah that is the answer split the vote and deal with Gordon Brown until 2015 as PM. 60 more months of Gordon Brown as PM is what vote splitting will get you.
David E Jones:
It’s unusual for any polling to take place in a single constituency, either for a by-election or general election. It does happen occasionally. At the last general election there were only two as far as I remember: in Shipley and Finchley. (The polls showed very close results in both, which was correct, but unfortunately they predicted the wrong winner in both seats).
There was in fact a Yougov/ITV poll conducted 22/23 Oct but the data tables were only put on the Yougov website on 3rd Nov . This did have a GE voting question although the results are nor actually published . From the data tables it looks like the figures would have been 39/27/18 with Others 15 or 16 – not that dissimilar to the Angus Reid poll .
Well, I’m sure UKIP will be pleased for about 10 seconds when they get 1 seat in the next parliament, then realise they need a quite a few more to get anywhere near what they really want, if the Conservatives end up with the 80-odd majority them seem on course for.
As for the seemingly insane voters, well, there are always some who get enough out of a government and don’t want a change in case they lose out with someone else in charge. This Government is, as during the tailend of the last Conservative government, so moribund it lacks the will to consider upsetting the few supporters it has left in order to just possibly gain a few more.
RC – “Why isn’t Labour share lower than 24%? I can’t believe there are any sane people in this country who would even consider voting for them.”
Not a helpful comment, but you have to remember that not every in this country is in the same situation as you are. There are millions who are in a completely different situation to you and who likely don’t care much about budget deficits and the recession. For them, they are probably equally aghast that ~40% would vote Conservative. Personally, I know very intelligent people who would vote Labour because they believe in high taxes and high government spending. They just aren’t Conservatives and will never vote that way, much as I believe in low taxes and would never vote for a high tax party.
If you really think about the reasons different people vote the way they do, you can easily get 24% – in fact, you’ll probably find yourself wondering why they are’t polling higher.
Mark (RC is beyond us and its post remains because AW is in “sod it” mode) :
We will always struggle to find reasons why those who disagree with us do so. Simplifying the argument is not helpful either. A tit-for-tat respomse to your traducement would be pointless but might include phrases suchas inherently corrupt, drug abusers, and other such epityhets that serve onlt to wind up the opposition. For what its worth, the more reasoned end of the spectrum of dismissive abuse would be simply to point to most City analyses of Osbornenomics which damn his apparent lack of knowledge.
What I’m increseasingly interested in is what sort of traction might be gained from making offers. Cameron (it is widely acknowledged) offered that the NHS was safe in his hands (and he’s gone further than “free at the pont of need” to “free at the point of delivery”. He also gained purchase by offering the nutters a Eurosceptic policy framework.
How much traction in the polls might be gained ffrom offers such as :
A referendum on EU membership (or a cunning sub-question like “EU-Lite membership” where we aim to claim money back)
An offer of a £20 supermarket voucher in return for exercising the right to vote
A referendum on PR or similart voting to be held within the first year of a Govt, with a GE to be re-held under the winning system (even FPTP) within a yeaer of the result.
The questions for the manifestos are in the air, but we haven’t yet heard any attractive ones.
Give it a rest James… you’re being so blatently disingenuous.
Personally, I welcome RC and his comments; and not you or yours.
The polls here look more convincing than those giving Labour 27% (yeah right!).
Anyway, these polls are no more than a rough guide, and don’t take into account turnout and local conditions… there’s every chance of Labour sinking to third place [please god! - and no apologies!]… I amongst many many millions can’t believe they’re still above 20%… and frankly expect the effects of the turnout to be a real threat to them; and a real opportunity for “others”.
Find the right party.
Every time I fill in the questions with some sensible answers I get the BNP as the right party for me.
Says it all really.
This is just more evidence of the precarious position of Labour.
A good way to express the support for Labour I think is this:
20% firm
20 to 25% fragile
25 to 27.5 floating
These floating voters have changed their minds so often in the last 18 months that they are obviously just as likely not to vote at all or vote for another party as they are to actually vote for Labour.
For at least a few months I expect the polls to vary for Labour between 23 to 28.
The potential fatal blow to Labour could come if fed up pervious non-voters decide to vote this time.
Sorry not pervious but previous.
Anywhere between 20% to 27.5% for Labour is what we should realistically expect at the GE. They need the economy to grow by something like 0.4 in this quarter and 0.8 in the next quarter in order to have a good chance of getting the full 27.5% at the GE. Given that it is reported that US economy unexpectantly grew by 0.9 in the last quarter such possible growth in the British economy cannot be ruled.
It cannot also be ruled out that what we are seeing now is the beginning of the end for Labour.
Angus Reid Full Tables
England:
Cons: 40; LAB 23: LD: 21; UKIP: 7; GN: 4; BNP: 5
Wales:
Cons: 34; LAB: 21; LD: 17; UKIP: 4; GN: 1; GNP: 3; PC: 18
Scotland:
Coms: 21; LAB: 32; LD: 11; UKIP: 2; GN: 3; BNP: 1; SNP27
Something extremely serious seems to be going on in Wales as far as Labour are concerned.
I am from the Rhondda in South Wales.
In the Euro election the biggest drop in Labour’s support occured in Wales.
The abolishen of the 10p starting rate and the expenses scandal have been the last straw for a lot of people in Wales. There is still a huge amount of support for socialist values. But a huge percentage now reject the Labour Westminster government as a bunch of self-serving charlatans and self-righteous hypocrites.
Andy Stidwill
As always, the tiny sub samples for Scotland (and even more so for Wales) aren’t based on the demographics for these nations.
If the memory of those polled as to how they voted in 2005 don’t match the actual results of the 2005 elections in the nations, then that would suggest a degree of skew.
In Scotland the actual 2005 %, the previous vote recalled by those polled and the AR poll results are
Party, Actual 2005, Memory 2005, poll
Lab, 39%, 40%, 32%
LD, 23%, 25%, 11%
SNP, 18%, 16%, 27%
Con, 16%, 15%, 21%
Other, 5%, 5%, 8%
“We will always struggle to find reasons why those who disagree with us do so. Simplifying the argument is not helpful either. A tit-for-tat respomse to your traducement would be pointless but might include phrases suchas inherently corrupt,…………..”
“He also gained purchase by offering the nutters a Eurosceptic policy framework.”
Shouldn’t you practice what you preach john?
“Find the right party.
Every time I fill in the questions with some sensible answers I get the BNP as the right party for me.
Says it all really.”
This post wasn’t from me
If you are COLLIN please say so-otherwise don’t use COLIN please.-thanks
I think a fairly accurate assessment from PHILIP JW. Upon the release of each new poll i try to decide what a realistic share of the vote for Labour would be at the GE. I personally cannot see it continuing to fall in the run up, but equally it is becoming clear that they are not very likely to get near the score needed to create a hung parliament. Some people on these pages seem hopeful that the gap will narrow, while their opinions are respected, i just don’t see it happening. The Conservatives would probably have hoped to be scoring a little higher, but everytime they do poll lower than 40%, Labour’s share of the vote falls by the same amount if not more leaving the margin of their lead intact. The GE will be decided by seats like mine( Bolton West), traditional barometer constituencies where Labour are barely putting up a fight at present.
It is even a strong possibility that Jack Straw wont be able to hold on in Blackburn (depending on the BNP vote).
As i have mentioned before it is implausible that Gordon Brown is suddenly going to start appealing to the people in these seats. Remember, when Labour received a bounce in their ratings when Brown became leader it was the Conservatives performance in the marginals that caused him to hold off calling the election. He seemed to be enjoying a rise in ratings in national samples but the swing seats were showing big losses. If that was the case THEN, where are we now?
I think any chance of polling more than 30% is looking out of the question.
RC – answer to your question.
Long memories of Conservative rule.
@Andy Stidwill
You are absolutely right to point out a big move away from Labour in Wales but even on the most optimistic reading of the figures from the Tory standpoint, they still point to Labour holding 20 of the 40 seats up for grabs at the G.E. – they currently have 30.
@Colin (The real Colin) – I was going to query the first post under your name until I read your actual post. It didn’t rind tru and I suspected it wasn’t the Colin we know and love. Could I also ask ‘Colin’ (Mk 2) to distinguish himself differently. Although it’s not for me to say I don’t think Colin appreciates being apparently associated with BNP views and you should respect his wish to avoid any confusion.
‘COLIN
Find the right party.
Every time I fill in the questions with some sensible answers I get the BNP as the right party for me.
Says it all really.’
well you are a nutter then…
The Labour 24%. Not the insane but 1)immigrants 2) long term unemployed 2) Guardian reading lefties.
Thanks Alec-appreciated.
This is purely a vote for the smaller parties by people who do not understand that we cannot have a referendum and claw back the lisbon treaty. It is clear that the british people do not want to be part of the Lisbon Treaty and neither did the tories. The problem is this pathetic government are the ones that promised are referendum and never give it. They have sold Britain to Europe and people who dont get it still seem to think DC can do something to get it back. Lets just stopn selling Britain to Europe and the tories wont do that. Come a GE those voters who have gone to BNP,UKIP,Green etc will more than likely vote for a main party. I still see a tory win in a GE and of about 80 seats. Remember the tories are still 14% ahead of labour even though below 40% which is still a commons majority. It is purely a protest at the government and tories for not giving a referendum on the LT. IT WAS LABOURS FAULT NOT THE TORIES.
I don’t know how many people on this site read the ALDC website and its list of council by-election results but it’s noticeable that in many parts of England the Labour Party ihas just vanished. No candidates whatsoever.
Its seems to cause some upset among this gentle souls commenting on this site that my name happens to be Colin. So I decided to change my name to Colin MK2 just to keep everybody happy. As to the fact that I always get BNP as my party on the Find the Right Party site I am soooo sorry. I will immediately change my views about how I think the country should be run. Let us go totally bankrupt, let us be overrun by immigrants, and let us be governed by the EU. Who cares anyway nothing will ever change while the two main parties switch from one to the other. One disaster followed by a different disaster. I have given up voting a long time ago maybe will vote again if they decide to reintroduce democracy.
The subsample included in this poll for Wales is far too small to produce meaningful figures. Moreover, the data is very much at variance with the only recent all- Wales YouGov poll published last week.
SEAL PUP
“Give it a rest James… you’re being so blatently disingenuous.
Personally, I welcome RC and his comments; and not you or yours.”
I’m sorry to say… in making the above comment YOU… YOURSELF are being blatently disingenuous…
… to the millions and millions who are mentally ill…
I am only merely highlighting prejudice… whether… as I said in post… it was intended or not…
It does not hurt to make people think sometimes… and in certain circumstances that includes me too…
Craig U – Entering the EEC (as was), Single European Act, Maastrict treaty all introduced by the Cons with no referendum.
The SEA in particularly was far more significant than Lisbon and pushed through by Thatcher – do you really think that if the Tories agreed with Lisbon they would hold a referendum.
Get Real it is only positioning.
Within 2 years of a con gov’t no powers of any significance will have been ‘repatriated’ and the Anti EU Brigade (Cash etc who are honest) will be clambouring for referendum on pulling out as DC will not have been able to deliver on his promise.
He will not be able to resist credibly but probably claim some small ‘repatriation’ is enough.
This is the danger for Cameron in the ‘Lisbon’ issue not the treaty itself which is a low resonance issues but the Electorate viewing hom as slippery.
On its’ own it won’t be enough but if a few other things occur Lisbon will have been the start of the gloss coming off Brand Cameron (which let’s face it is what he is – a brand)
Colin 8.52.I never use anything else but “COLLIN”, it is locked in.
JimJam 9.50. Would it be your contention,then, that the country is better on balance(socially and economically)after 12 years of Labour rule, than it was after the previous 12 years of Conservative rule.? A list of the improvements would be an interesting matter for debate.
Yes Collin I do think so and will be happy to detail on an open thread.
I respect most Conservative voters despite disagreeing with them it is a shame RC (unlike the vast majority if pro con posters) does not appear to respect labour voters.
I enjoy a bit of knockabout lower down threads whilst we wait for a new poll but some comments are just too much.
PB is a more suitable site for ultra partisan, vitriolic stuff.
@ JIMJAM – my parents are Labour voters. I respect them hugely. I don’t respect their decision to support the current Labour government though. They don’t even respect it themselves – they openly despise and despair about what Labour has become in recent years, but have decided to vote Labour anyway because they want the party to survive and one day find its soul again. I understand their reasoning but I can’t support it myself. The prospect of 5 more years of Brown and co. is unbearable to me.
I am not surprised Labour’s polling is not lower. Must bear in mind that Labour’s open door immigration policy has imported hundreds of thousands of voters who will look to labour. Add the public sector client base and there is a floor under the Labour vote.
Criag,
No need for me to respond your reasonableness, analysis and balance is there for all to see.
Open thread now, suggest you go there.
Where did Craigs post that I was responding to disappear to?
Moderated out?
I think this is simply part of strategic planning on the part of the Conservatives. Just like the “challenging times” mantra of the party as a whole, this is taking a hit now, not a bigger one later – and 2% or so doesn’t seem too bad for them on that front. In my opinion, it’s harder to measure the damage the issue’s done to Labour, and that’s why it might appear that the Conservative’s are the ones most in the firing line.
Surely support for minor parties dependent on them having candidates in every seat which they do not. Especially the BNP, which only have a couple of hundred usually if memory serves.