Have a look at the 18-34 data in the recent Welsh poll. That has an even more frightening statistic for Labour since LDs came out top (albeit on just 28%)

Whether this is the fading of Thatcher memories or simply more open minds among the young, it does mean that Labour can’t simply sit on its laurels.

It may be that Labour’s long-term decline was arrested (or suspended) only by Blair’s charm, and now that he has departed, the inexorable trend is down as its tribal loyalties unwind.

I have noticed in several polls that Labour’s support has been most solid in the 34-54 age group. These (particularly those 30-40) presumably are the generation who most remember the late 80s / 90s without remembering the dismal 1970s.

In Scotland, it may be that it will take at least another decade for those who have only dim (or no) memories of Thatcher (now 19 years out of #10) to look at the Conservatives objectively rather than through the red-tainted prism of their parents.

If Scotland is still in the UK in 2020, it may be that we see the Conservatives once again as the largest party in Scotland (at around 35-40%).

Food for thought for Scotland ?

In the words of the young-at-heart Victor Meldrew “I don’t believe it!”

A regional vote for Labour in Glasgow, or for the LibDems in the highlands is a “wasted vote.” A tactical voter in these areas would do well to use the regional vote as a second preference. Would it be best to vote for the likely coalition partner, or would an increase in their strength mean that more would have to be conceded to them in coalition? Would a vote for a minor party be better, and if so should that be the Greens or the Socialists? Would anyone vote Lab/Con, though the Scotsman suggests that passionate Unionists might vote Con/Lab, and Lab for Westminster?

Adherents of other parties, and elsewhere everyone, can confidently vote regionally for the party of their first preference for forming a government and then for the least worst in your constituency.

Greens have to do that but which other party will best promote their agenda and is worth voting for the constituency?

Would that usually be the SNP, the Green’s best hope of coalition? Local issues could Trump that!

Perhaps the sitting MSP of another party does a good job in the constituency, or is of independent mind, less bound than most by party discipline. Maybe you think he is useless and anything would be better. Is it personal? Has he has helped you, or run off with your wife?

One thing is certain, that now accustomed to split voting, the Scottish voter will think nothing of voting for a different party in the UK election.

Many won’t see the point of voting for a candidate who would rather be somewhere else. One MP has said the job is only worth two days a week, and for the SNP who don’t vote on English matters, it must be less than half that. The SNP will not do as well as they do in the SP.

There is no doubt that Labour are losing support, and they will lose most where they have most, which is where it makes no difference in seats. It doesn’t follow that many voters will move directly to the Conservatives, or that there is positive support for them. Though the LibDems are not doing well overall, it may be that their rural incumbents are even safer than usual, gaining as many votes as they lose.

“Support for the Conservatives seems to be at its highest in the 18-34 age range.”

I’d missed that. As a new trend maybe Conservative support increases in this group from 34 towards 18. The younger (most Conservative) ones would have been in nappies when Mrs T was PM.

Food for thought for Labour.

the poll highlights more the hollowness in support for the SNP considering their record this year than increased support for Labour.