Comments on: ComRes show 13 point Tory lead

By: Danny Boy

Danny Boy — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:35:28 +0000

@DAN

dont hold your breath on the hung parliament dream.
Labour are even less competetive in the marginals than their national share indicates and they would need a seismic shift back to them in these seats to hold any hope of a hung parliament.
It just doesn’t seem at all likely as far as i can see.
Brown appears hugely unpopular in the seats that won Labour the 1997 election.
To say Labour are currently in touching distance of a hung parliament is a touch fanciful, the first 80 seats on the Tories target list look a dead cert and those alone would make them become the largest party.
I appreciate things can change, but Britain appears to have made up its mind.

By: Jim Jam

Jim Jam — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:51:33 +0000

Neil A is right Labour would be satisfied with 8% or so lead, say 39/31 and the LDs must be disappointed by their lask of progress.
I would only add that others @ 15% is too high, the BNP in the news may not only have lifted them a little but reminded some other susceptable voters that they do not have to vote for one of the main parties helping the other others. GReen UKIP)
(OLD NAT I know but SNP/PC are others in this poll).
As such 44/28/20 is probably about the real GE tomorrow score.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:28:28 +0000

Clearly the election is the Tories to lose and at this stage the only changes I can see might be an additional point or two to each of the main parties as inevitably the score for the others slightly falls away -the latter cannot compete in publicity terms.

By: Jon Hughes

Jon Hughes — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:05:37 +0000

Dan. November 2009 is not early Summer 2008! Most electors minds are focused now, if they are focused at all, on a real election in six months, not one years in the future. If I were DC I would be very happy with a 13+% lead that seems to be sticking with only five months to the off. “A lot can happen” “a week is a long time” and “events”, but a steady lead does look “set in”.

By: Neil A

Neil A — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 07:58:53 +0000

@Dan,

Summer 2008 was a bit of a “blip” in the Tory lead. For a couple of months, after the Crewe and Nantwich By Election, they did indeed show leads in the 20s. But in early 2008 and late 2008 their lead was much as it is now. In fact October 2008 and October 2009 are eerily similar in opinion poll terms.

Anyone can pick a short period in recent history when a party was doing very very well and compare that to their current standing to make it appear that they are doing comparitively badly. The truth is if you had had a conversation with a Labour in MP a year ago and asked “What would you think if this time next year the Tories were still 14 points ahead with a poll score of 40+ percent?” their answer would have been “That would be a disaster”.

It seems the main news from a psephologists point of you is that there is no news. For all the talk of voters being “volatile” etc, what is really happening is that poll after poll is showing that the vote shares are basically static. Overall; Labour recovering slightly, Tories maintaining their position, LibDems not making any ground. I think this lack of polling news is what is driving the followers of this blog to distraction!

By: Eric Goodyer

Eric Goodyer — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 07:56:22 +0000

Is there any data on the likelhood to vote and/or strength of feeling. I still get the impression that there is a larger than usual group of dont know or weak support for both main parties, which could go either way. We also seem to moving away from looking at records to trying to predict future policies of the next administration.

By: NBeale

NBeale — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:58:13 +0000

Weighted Moving Average 41:27:18 so the WMA CLead is 14 very very close to the average over the last 193 days (which is how many days to the next election). Basically the polls remain static from a statistical PoV and there is no evidence that anything is making a difference.

By: Wood

Wood — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 05:04:43 +0000

Phillip, I can never understand your predictions, the average stands at 41 27, yet you say more than 28 is beyond the realms of possibilty, and at the same time that the ‘real’ figure is probably 42?

Has labour been getting a load of immensely good news I haven’t noticed that’d make us assume this is their realistic peak?

By: collin

collin — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 03:38:43 +0000

What assumptions are made in these figures for certainty to vote? I believe this will be a key stat. at the GE and should be a feature in all commentaries on polls from now on – the motivation to vote as between Con. and Lab is, it seems to me, quite different.

By: oldnat

oldnat — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:06:08 +0000

Philip JW

Actually Dan described Labour (not Brown) as “like a heavyweight champ that refuses to go down.”

The interesting thing about English politics is the continuation of Tweedledum/dee choices, when the public seems to see both major UK parties as having to choose between the lesser of two evils.

The polling certainly suggests no great enthusiasm for either.