Comments on: ICM/NotW and would UKIP cost the Conservative 50 seats?

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:24:56 +0000

Pete B & OLDNAT

If your parents had been Glasgow University graduates and burgesses of the city they would have had three votes in local elections and it would take half a day to vote in three different places

By: wolf

wolf — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 07:54:52 +0000

I don’t think UKIP will be significant in the next election. But it is a place for disgrumtled Tory activists to go , and I suspect there will be a lot of those in the bear future

By: Pete B

Pete B — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:28:53 +0000

In all discussions of turnout, don’t forget the effect of everyone now potentially having a postal vote. Was this available in 2005? I can’t remember. Also, there has been widespread abuse of postal voting in those elections where it has been widely used. I believe that the procedures have been tightened up slightly, but will it be enough to prevent widespread fraud?

From memory, although I believe that both Lab and Con have been implicated in postal voting fraud, I think that the majority of cases have been by Labour. This could affect the number of votes and seats that various parties will achieve.

By: Philip JW

Philip JW — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:15:43 +0000

At present Labour seem set to achieve at most 27 to 28%. This is a quarter down on what they got last time. Therefore, based on the same level of turnout, we should expect Labour to gain at most 7.5 million votes.

There is evidence from every kind of poll: voting intention, local, euro and by-elections that point to the possibility that Labour could end up gaining as low as 6 million votes.

A tactical swing to the Lib Dems from those wishing to boot out Labour and minimize a Tory landslide may push their vote up to 6 million.

But I think the Tories are likely to get at least 9.5 million votes.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:15:35 +0000

Likely scenario (slightly revised but not much).
Not certain – could change either way.

May 2010
Electorate 45,482,229
Turnout 65.3% 29,699,917

UK share% GB share % votes GB % +/-
Con 40.2% 41.2% 11,939,366 +7.8%
Lab 30.9% 31.6% 9,177,274 -4.7%
LD 16.9% 17.3% 5,019,286 -5.4%
Oths 12.0% 9.9% 2,940,292 +2.3%

Swing 6.3% from Lab to Con

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:06:26 +0000

ConservativeHome is reporting a new poll – ComRes in the Independent:

C – 40% (nc)
Lab – 27% (-1%)
LD – 18% (-1%)

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:01:45 +0000

The Tories should certainly hope to get much more than 10m votes – they would hope I think to add on at least 3m – and get about 12m.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:59:25 +0000

70% is credible, but I think at the high end of it.
I can see the next election attracting big surges in turnout in competitive seats, but just can’t see +9% in lots of safer seats.

I can see +10 in marginals and +2 in safer (Labour) seats.

More likely is about +7 in marginals,
+5 in safer Tory seats, and +2 in safe Labour seats – so unfortunately that still means only about 65%.

I think I calculated that if turnout reaches 68% and Labour claws back to 31% they would actually keep 9.6 million votes.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:49:51 +0000

It would be good for democracy if turnout could reach 70%, but that may only be possible if the result is in doubt right up to polling day which seems unlikely at the moment, but things could change of course in the next few months.

By: Joshua

Joshua — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:44:00 +0000

I think turnout will definitely be up to 65% or thereabouts but the Labour votes will decrease by at least a million (two million wouldn’t be a surprise). I think the Green Party and UKIP will do significantly better than expected. I also think the Lib Dems could lose up to 500,000 votes and the Cons will probably hit the 10 million mark.