Angus Reid have released the first in a series of monthly polls they are doing for PoliticalBetting. The topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 23%, LDEM 20%. Obviously there are no changes in party support, since this is their first effort.

Like the other two polls tonight it shows a Conservative lead of 17 points, but beyond that the figures themselves are actually slightly different – the Conservatives and Labour are lower, and the Lib Dems and others are higher.

Until we get a proper look at a the tables and a chance to poke about at the methodology, that’s pretty much all we can say. What we know so far is that the poll is conducted using their own internet panel (it lives at SpringBoardUK) like YouGov and Harris. We know is that it is past vote weighted and what their voting intention question is. We don’t know what else they weight by, if they do anything with likelihood to vote, or reallocating don’t knows, or what the targets for past vote are, or which parties are prompted for in the voting intention question (which could explain the strangely high figure for others!).

I expect things will all be in order, since Andy Morris is a former colleague and knows what he’s doing, but for now we’ll have to wait and see.


67 Responses to “UK voting intention poll from Angus Reid”

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  1. @Jack

    “…which just doesn’t happen in Western countries”

    Well, the Conservative party in Canada got wiped out to 1 seat in the 90s, and survived through combining with other; I don’t know if that counts as a collapse.

    The Liberal party collapsed in the 20s, and the Liberals as the LibDems only became relevant again in the 80s when it too combined with another party.

    So, although I doubt that Labour is actually on its last legs, if it were, I’d expect a mass exodus of talent, bigger than that of the SDP, to the new “socialist” party, whoever they may be, presumably the LibDems. But the LibDems are nowhere near that, until they can steal back some heartlands that they lost in the 20s.

  2. As said, I accept Canada; the Liberals in the 20s in the UK went down due to the growth of Labour. I accept change over time.

    The argument was about one election destruction. So, the rest of your comments are irrelevant. In fact you agree that Labour is not on its last legs. You just didn’t read the previous comments before you came up with what you thought I’d said. Try reading…

  3. OLDNAT

    “One wonders how much longer Anthony’s clients are going to continue to ask for GB data, when Mori (and quite possibly Angus Reid) are going to be publishing specific data for the largest of the UK’s political systems (533 of the 650 seats).”

    You can wonder about that if you like. I’m wondering if there will be any polls for Scotland after independence.

  4. John B Dick

    Why on earth would you wonder that? I presume that you know that polling takes place in similar European countries to Scotland. For example have a look at the output of Rambøll/Analyse Danmark

  5. “(which could explain the strangely high figure for others!). ”

    Au contraire… nothing strange here… I think he’s on the money.

  6. “COLIN

    Well given Anthony’s approving tone, this plus MORI & ICM make all that Labour recovery/hung Parliament stuff of a few days ago look a bit silly.”

    Absolutely, where’s JimJam patting him self on the back about a Labour recovery?!

  7. The full data tables for this poll and the full methodology are now on the Angus Reid website .

  8. Three “most important issues”:-
    Economy
    Unemployment
    Immigration

    Question Time is going to be unmissable.

  9. @Seal Pup

    Don’t forget, JimJam was joined by such illustrious people as Alex Salmond in their expectation of a hung Parliament.

    I mean,
    IF the Tories don’t win a majority, with polling like this not seen since 1983,
    IF a hung parliament doesn’t almost immediately call another election to give it a majority (like last time, in 1974),
    IF the LibDems collapse to the point where they aren’t big enough to break the dead-lock,
    IF there’s no other party to deal with, say one that isn’t demanding 10% of the UK population in exchange for 20 MPs’ votes,
    and IF the SNP triples its numbers of MPs to 20…

    Salmond might have been right!

  10. Richard Manns
    Well put. However Salmond knows all you say but he has to have a justification for why Scottish based voters should bother to vote for a party which cannot obtain power at Westminister. You have illustrated how ridiculous his stance really is but I suspect it will still encourage a significant number of people to vote SNP. What alternative message could he put out to attract more votes for the SNP at the GE?

  11. Looking at the data tables , the main oddity is on the past vote weighting . The LibDem sample had to be heavily weighted upwards in this sample almost entirely at the expense of ” Others ” . The adjustments for Labour and Conservative look quite normal but why the Angus Reid panel should have had twice as many people saying they voted for minor parties in 2005 as actually did so is a bit of a mystery .

  12. Mark, you can’t conclude anything about the make up of their panel from the unweighted sample, since it’s highly unlikely that their samples are just random chunks of their panel. All we can say is that their sampling produces too many “others” and too few Lib Dems, and needed to be adjusted by weighting.

    They asked past vote in the survey itself, not in a registration survey, so they presumanly weren’t able to sample based on past vote (though I understand they do ask party ID in their registration, so maybe that was used in sampling).

  13. Richard M, just to set the record straight I have never said that I thought there would be a hung parliament.
    Seal Pup has misread something I wrote or took a sentence in isolation.
    I have maintained along with some other ‘long time posters’ that a 79 type result is most likely but with a higher others and LD score.
    In short a comfortable but not land-slide Con majority.
    What I have said is that recent polls suggested that a hung parliament was possible but only if Cameron scored some own goals; I also said that a landslide was possible.
    Both of these are 2-3% swing away or were last week.
    It is clear the cons have a lead around 17 % and labour has dropped back a copuple of points in the last week. (The 24 and con 40 seems unlikely as others 17 too high as Seal Pup himself says).
    If you have the inclination you can look at my recent posts on Stockton South and Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East to see how I think there is a big dilema facing Laboiur local stratgeists.

  14. What would Angus Reid have to do differently to be weighted as highly as YouGov in the UKPR average?

  15. Have an 8 year track record!

  16. Mike

    “…. why Scottish based voters should bother to vote for a party which cannot obtain power at Westminister …”

    Like the LibDems you mean?

    Lots of people vote for them because they think they are the least worst, and the SNP are a rising alternative brand offering the USP of pragmatic rather than doctrinaire government in the SP and (like the Greens and Socialists) freedom from control by the UK leadership.

    There is no evidence that Scottish voters are increasingly in favour of independence or that they are positively supporting the the SNP but the SNP is a better stick to beat Labour with than the Conservatives are because the alternation of the two governing parties perpetuates the same corrupt system in which they collude.

    I am sure that you would agree as we all do that there are dangers if the electoral system were to produce permanent government by a single party, even if it were your preferred choice of the two. For that reason, it was formerly claimed that the next best option in this, the best of all political worlds is to have to alternating elites, each with the prospect of success from time to time.

    Even the party you least prefer has to have its turn, and be of roughly equivalent size and ability or else it could not be available as a replacement government or effective as an opposition holding the executive to account.

    It’s all about fair play and house teams in 19thC English boarding schools. The other side has to get its turn to go in to bat.

    The reasons “The Nasty Party” were turned out last time have not been forgotten. The gullability of Labour leaders in accepting the mega rich at their own evaluation of their worth, together with their focus on presentation rather than substance and their inability to tell believable lies instead of the other kind have prompted the electorate to look elsewhere.

    The expenses issue has exposed the collusion of the alternate elites, and we are fortunate in Scotland that the SNP and the Greens and whichever half of the Socialists are not perjurors gives us a range of choices denied to English voters who have to contemplate the relative merits of the BNP and UKIP.

    The reason the SNP exists is bad and inward looking metropolitain thinking rather than a need for a separate culture and geography to be governed separately, but it could present itself as offering not just a more competent, principled and pragmatic GOVERNMENT, but a more efficient, honest and effective PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM than the sclerotic illogical inconsistent and corrupt one at Westminster.

    The model is in place and working exactly as Donald Dewar envisaged. His plan was that the model would be copied in the more than 30 way in which it differs from Westminster practice and custom.

    The reason I will vote for independence is not because I think separation is necessary or even desirable but because reform is, and since has taken 40 years of the plan for Donald’s Home Rule parliament to come to fruition and eleven years of the actuality have produced nil interest in using the model, I cannot expect to see reform of Westminster in my lifetime but the opportunity exists, through independence, for my grandchildren to grow up in a country which respects the values on the mace and is governed on the Founding Principles of the Scottish Parliament.

  17. Mike:

    “What alternative message could he put out to attract more votes for the SNP at the GE?”

    The answer is:

    “Elect SNP MP’s in a majority of Scottish Constituencies and we will secede.”

    It is very unlikely that there will be more than a handful of Scottish seats changing hands and not all of them will fall to the SNP. They will turn many of their third places to winnable marginals and my suggested alternative message will be appropriate for the election after the next.

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