NOP has conducted a poll in Blaenau Gwent for the two forthcoming by-elections caused by the death of Peter Law. Law was the Labour Welsh Assembly member for the constituency until 2005, when he stood as an Independent at the General Election and took what had been one of Labour’s safest seats.

The two by-elections are both being contested by independent candidates close to Law. The Parliamentary candidate is Dai Davies, Law’s agent in 2005, while the Welsh Assembly seat is being contested by Law’s widow, Trish.

The topline figures for the Westminster by election are LAB 47%, IND 35%, LDEM 6%, PC 6%, CON 5% and for the Welsh Assembly, the figures are IND 43%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, PC 6%, CON 3%, GRN 2%, suggesting that the Independent candidates have a good chance of taking at least one of the two seats.

NOP’s poll is based only on those certain or very likely to vote – given that the total sample size was 1,000, this means that the actual number of responses upon which the voting intentions are based is probably quite small, with a consequentially large margin of error. Bear in mind also that by-election polls do not have a particularly good track record, not least because voting intentions have been know to change wildly during a by-election campaign. There are still four weeks until voters in Blaenau Gwent actually go to the polls, and both seats could easily go either way.

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