ICM’s monthly Guardian poll has been published. The topline figures with changes from last week are CON 44%(-1), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 18%(nc). The 17 point lead is the same as today’s MORI poll and, like MORI, it shows virtually no change since before the conference season.

16 Responses to “ICM too show 17 point Tory lead”

  1. There is a 3rd poll out tonight on Political Betting, again showing a 17 point conservative lead, figures are con 40, lab 23 and ldems 20. Cameron should be quite pleased with how things are going now!

  2. Yes three polls all out in one night all showing the same lead for the Tories, all in the critical 40% plus catagory. More worrying for labour is their % average in these three of 23/26/27 is only 25 the Tories average of 42 which would indicate a landslide at the GE if maintained. Seven months to go and has any incumbent government ever been able to claw back from being so far behind? And this is even before we learn what cuts/tax rises Labour has in store. not looking good for them at all

  3. Anthony

    I realise you’ve had some problems tonight!

    But if you have time, I’d like some help with that question I asked about the England only data on Ipsos-Mori.

    Additionally I should have spotted this at the time, but the 108 Scots/Welsh probably voting is 25% of the GB figure – which is silly. Are more Scots/Welsh sure to vote? etc

  4. It looks like the Tory lead has survived Osborne’s tough-times gambit, as well as Cameron’s “big state” one.

    I have a suspicion (or perhaps it’s a hope) that this issue will be far, far bigger in the coming years than voters perhaps yet realise.

  5. Yes indeed, these 3 polls show Labour to be averaging 25. As I said recently any poll showing Labour to be above 25 should be viewed with great caution. My daring prediction made a few months ago that Labour will be averaging 25 at the end of October has a chance of being accurate again.

    The quarterly economic review published on Friday and how it is presented by the media could prove to be significant. The coming few weeks may prove to be decisive regarding Labour’s chance of doing better than the mid-twenties at the GE.

    There will no more quiet summer recess nor Labour conference between now and the GE so if they do drop back to the mid-twenties over the coming weeks I don’t see how they will be able recover in the slightest between now and the GE.

  6. The weakness of a landslide is the amount of Tories likely to throw votes down the waste trap of UKIP… (and BNP)

  7. What I think we are seeing is a consistent 42 to 44 lead for the Conservatives. It seems they are now consistently polling above 40% which is signifiant. The Labour vote does not seem to have settled yet so I think we will have to wait a bit more for this. However I would expect a labour score of 26%. How this transfers into a GE redsult is debatable. As in the Local elections we saw similar results but the conservatives were seen to be very sucessful dispite their low results. The SNP also may help a landslide conservative majority as labour seems to have slumped everywhere.

    Overall it seems that the Conservatives ahve had a good conference with Labours message still trying to get through. The Liberal democrats will not be happy with their trends.

  8. Interesting tonight that Mervyn King has said the UK economy would grow in the second half of the year.
    However, he did not commit himself to saying the economy had come out of recession between July and September. Now if anyone should know in advance by just a few days whether it has or not would be he so its probably going to show that it hasnt. in that case we could be up to a full half year behind the other major economies in coming out and that would not be good for labour as if you remember ‘we were best placed to weather this recession” Sometimes things really do come back to bite you. Rather like no more boom or bust. Such command (or lack of it) of the economy especially from one who was chancellor for so long, shows a decidedly loose grasp of economics.

  9. Political Betting is reporting at third poll from Angus Reid Strategies – also showing a 17% Tory lead. Does this poll pass the reliability test?

  10. Good numbers for the cons and glad I never got excited over the 30% for Labour which could have been a temporory boost or just at the edge of moe or a mixture.

  11. There is of course that old rule of thumb that says labour will get the lowest pol rating, which would put them on 24% on tonights three polls which would probably make the tory lead just short of 20%.

    I think the tipping point is passed and unless thye blow it badly the Tories have it in the bag.


  12. As I have been saying since the Libdem conference started, don’t trust any polls until the end of October.

    They are starting to look a little more consistent now, but there is still a fair bit of variation from polls carried out just a couple of days ago, with no obvious cause. Of course it is possible that YouGov had a rogue, but as YouGov tend to be the most reliable pollster I think it is more likely to be down to poll volatility continuing from the conference season.

    On a separate point, it doesn’t do the Conservatives any good to be bashing the BNP. Doing it under cover of army officers who are well known Conservative supporters is better than politicians openly doing it, but I think it would be far more sensible for us politically (as well as being the right thing to do anyway) to admit that BNP voters have very real and legitimate concerns, and to address them.

  13. The last ComRes poll had 9% of respondents who voted Lib Dem last time, when 20% actually did. All the firms have skewy samples of one kind or another, but ICM tend to be the most accurate for us, and even they have us a coupe of points lower than we ought to be.

  14. Fitflops, that’s not right.

    The previous ComRes poll found 12% of people saying they voted Lib Dem in 2005. Once you exclude all the don’t knows, didn’t votes and so on, that works out at 21% of those who gave a 2005 recalled vote.

    They deliberately don’t match the actual vote shares because of false recall. Panel studies have repeatedly shown that people do not accurately report to pollsters how they actually voted at the previous election, so weighting recalled vote to actual vote would actually give inaccurate results.

    Lots more detail here

  15. Do we have a Breakdown for Scotlanf?

  16. “Jack

    The weakness of a landslide is the amount of Tories likely to throw votes down the waste trap of UKIP… (and BNP)”

    Total partisanship… at least say something about the poll!