There is a lots of coverage for a YouGov poll conducted for the Open Rights Group, which suggests widespread opposition to the government’s proposals to cut off the internet connection of people caught filesharing (or, more specifically, to cut them off without the requirement to get a court order – the poll concentrated on what the legal requirements would be to cut people off rather the principle of whether or not they should be cut off.)

Personally I’d have worded the question differently, but nevertheless the public response was pretty overwhelming, 16% thought an ISP should be able to disconnect people having been informed of several infringements, 68% thought the evidence should have to go before a court.

As a caveat, while online polling can work, certainly it works for political polling as YouGov have proved time and again, there are some issues where it is going to mislead – to take an extreme example, you couldn’t use an online poll to find what proportion of people have internet access (Wow! It’s 100%!). In this poll the first two questions obviously have to be looked at in the light that there are another 38% or so of the population who don’t have home internet access, and for whom loosing internet access would obviously have no impact whatsover.

Finally the poll found that 31% of people said they would be much less likely to vote for a party that followed this policy. As ever, I’d advise people to spurn all “would it make you more or less likely to vote” for a party questions – except just possibly when they are asked only of a group of floating voters, when they should only be compared against similar questions.

It’s worth dwelling a bit longer on this type of question – those which attempt to measure how important an issue is to the public, or how much impact it might actually have on an election. It’s a type of question that often turn up in polls for many other organisations (and for that matter, newspaper polls), and it’s right that they should – after all, whether an issue has an impact is not just down to whether people agree with it, but also how much they care about it. Pressure groups and charities often commission them, because they create the impression that people think their issue is jolly important, and that MPs should take it seriously because it might cost them votes. Unfortunately, the way they are asked often suggests issues are more salient than they are.

Looking at the two ways they are normally asked, more or less likely to vote questions are misleading since more or less likely are very undemanding terms, voting intention is actually quite sticky but it’s very easy to say in a poll you might consider changing your vote. It’s even worse when the question asks specifically about a party (e.g. would it make you more likely to vote Labour?) since it will normally include lots of people who in reality already support that party, or would never do so anyway. Generally speaking respondents seem to use questions like this just to indicate whether they like or dislike a policy.

The alternative approach of asking people directly if they think issue X is important is even worse, as unless the issue is obviously petty and insignificant respondents will almost always say yes. It doesn’t actually cost anything to say “yes” to a survey, and when people are asked about these things by pollsters they will naturally think “Yes, that does sound like an important thing I really should care about” rather than look like an uncaring swine. In really however people will not be forced to consider that issue in isolation – it will have to compete for attention against all those other issues like the economy, health, crime, taxation, immigration. The question that matters is whether people think it is important compared to other issues.

The best way of judging how salient issues really are is Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll on issues. These ask people what they think the most important issue facing the country is, and then any other important issues they think there are out there. Importantly, it does not prompt people at all, there is no list of options to choose from, they are not forced into the pollster’s or the client’s predetermined agenda. The overwhelming majority said things like economy, crime, health, unemployment, immigration and so on. I don’t think issues actually make a massive difference to voting intention, more people vote on broad party image rather than the specifics of policy, but if they do vote on issues, these are the ones.

Even this question isn’t perfect. To take an example, I’m sure there are people who vote on the single issue of fox hunting, but who wouldn’t necessarily claim that fox hunting is one of the most important issues facing the country. The ideal would be an unprompted question asking what issues would matter to people in deciding how to vote at the next election (which MORI also ask, albeit less frequently, the most recent was last month.)

Of course this is oversimplying things a bit. The issues people care about can easily change, and sometimes issues people don’t care about can matter. Low salience issues can still have a wider impact on how parties are perceived. For example, under David Cameron the Conservatives have talked a lot about the environment, an issue of comparatively low salience, as a way of making themselves look like a more caring and progressive party. They have pretty much ignored the issue of immigration, an issue of high salience, because it would have reinforced negative perceptions of the party as being being insular and bigoted.

This has drifted a long way from digital rights, so coming back to it, respondents clearly don’t like the idea of people being disconnected for filesharing without the approval of the courts. Would it really have a large impact on how a third of people vote? Well, do you see any civil liberty issues up there when MORI asked people what issues would decide their vote?


6 Responses to “Disconnecting filesharers and issue saliency”

  1. Not really surprised by these results. Asking about the web on a internet poll isn’t quite a self selecting poll but you would expect those who use the web to be less than supportive of potential interference with it.

    For the record I do think ISP’s should cut people off if what they are doing is illegal, Lots of companies refuse to do business with people who cheat or miss behave from insurance companies to the local pub without having to go to court.

    ISP’s don’t want to do it because they know its wide spread and it makes them money and that if they do the business will go elsewhere.

    Turkeys and Christmas.

    Peter.

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  2. It is quite interesting as to what issue may make someone change their vote, or more importantly do something about it

    May I use myself as an example:

    I am a solid Tory and have always voted for them. However had there not been a boundry change I would not have voted for Brian Binley, who was caught fiddling his expences.

    But I feel so strongly about the fox hunting issue that I spent a week canvassing in south london for Boris during the recent london elections. In fact there are hundreds, if not thousands of us countrymen working our hearts out at all elections to ensure a tory victory and the lifting of the fox hunting ban.

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  3. Most people living in rural areas are neither strongly in favour or against fox-hunting. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.

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  4. Glenn only said there were “hundreds if not thousands” (possibly a slight underestimate, considering VoteOK, the third party body that acts as a clearing house for hunt supporters who wish to help the campaigns of pro-hunting MPs, claims 7000 volunteers) of huntsmen campaigning for the Conservative party. I have no idea if there is an equally organised use of anti-hunting activitists in the opposite direction.

    Either way out of an electorate of 40,000,000 that is well under 0.5%, so doesn’t contradict the poll findings that rural issues and animal welfare are only major issues to a very small minority.

    If that minority care deeply enough to actually go out and help leaflet and campaign though, they do have the potential to make a difference.

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  5. Error, you entered the wrong captcha code (again, and again, no I didn’t), and you post has been lost.

    Captchas only work if they…..work.

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  6. Do you think some people use ‘tactical voting’ in opinion polls? For example, if I was asked about an issue that was moderately important to me, I could say it was extremely important. That would help push it up the agenda, making it more likely that action would be taken on an issue that is, after all, of some importance to me.

    It would be possible to go further. Suppose someone was a committed Tory supporter at the time of the grammar schools row. Perhaps he supports grammar schools, but isn’t particularly bothered; he is more keen to see the Tories win an election. He might be tempted to follow the leadership’s line, even though that isn’t his personal view. Doing that would demonstrate support for David Cameron’s line among Tory voters, helping to damp down the negative stories in the press.

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