I’m expecting at least two new polls tonight. First up is ComRes for the Independent on Sunday. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 19%(nc) – so literally no change there.

Polls at the end of last week showed a boost from the Conservative conference, but it’s no great surprise that this doesn’t: almost by definition the conference boosts are transitory things that disappear after a few days. More interesting though is that the previous ComRes poll was showing a Labour boost, and that hasn’t receded. Before the Labour conference ComRes had been pretty consistently showing Labour at around 23% or 24% – now we have them up at 28% (mainly at the expense of others, the Conservatives are pretty steady).

Of course, it’s possible to offer a thousand reasons why that might be, and there is scant evidence to actually tell us the real reason. We can’t even be certain that it’s anything to do with the conference season, since we also have the issue of expenses rising up the agenda. My own guess is that is indeed one factor – Brown’s response to the re-emerge of the expenses scandal, firmly stating that complaining MPs should do what their Legg letters say has made him look something like the old decisive, strong (and popular!) Gordon Brown. That said ComRes did ask in the survey whether people agreed with the statement “David Cameron has dealt with the issue of MPs’ expenses better than Gordon Brown” and while the proportion of people agreeing with the statement had fallen, it wasn’t a huge turnaround (in May it was 59%, now 53%)

On the subject of expenses, it’s also worth commenting on the dog that didn’t bark. This is the first poll conducted entirely since the expenses issues re-emerged and the level of support for “others” has not increased.


13 Responses to “ComRes show Labour holding onto their conference support”

  1. I wonder how the polls will change if Brown can’t control dissenting MPs, angry with having to repay expenses, but Cameron and Clegg can…

  2. Polls could change further yet. The Cons are not capturing the nation’s imagination – yet

  3. Pretty much confirming the solidification of Labour support seen over the conference season.

    Should be an interesting next couple of months to monitor the polls. An exit from recession later this month could give Labour a further boost, building on the better than expected unemployment figures.

  4. The movements of opinion polls can be compared with the movement of share prices. Following a long period of consolidation, share prices move sharply up or down. The Labour party has had a long period of consolidation with opinion poll rating of 24 to 28%. If the recent up tick is maintained and improved upon, Labours rating may hit 36 to 38% before the election. People tend to move with the flow. Many disenchanted labour supporters are bound to come back even if reluctantly and this may attract more supporters from the ”don’t knows” and weak supporters of other parties.

  5. If that were true, how depressing it would be.

    “if” is a big word.. and you’re committing the analogical fallacy: where are the mergers and acquisitions of small growth parties like UKIP?!

    If we were to go along with the stock market analogy, then I’d put it to you that on the macro level, the Labour party is in the throes of a divergent phugoid (to employ systems engineering parlance), much like Merrill Lynch & JP Morgan was…
    “http (://) seekingalpha.com/article/84560-financial-stocks-in-a-divergent-phugoid?source=commenter”

    In which case, Labour could be well under 20% by next February, with time to bob up to around 25% come the next election.
    This “consolidation” is merely a summer thing where MPs have been away, and the media has had other stories to chase.

    No-one is “bound” to do anything… events will undoubtably dictate what is “bound” to happen …every schoolboy knows that ; )

  6. @STATTO
    “An exit from recession later this month” [snip]

    BWAH HA HA HA HA HA Ha Ha ha hah haaah

    Go on, go down to Ladbrokes and put your money where your mouth is (they could do with the customers by all accounts!)

  7. I don’t think its down to the Legg response. There are numerous comparable stands the leaders of all parties have made.

    The reason support for Labour is shoring up is because people are finally hearing chat for the first time or slowly realising that they don’t like the sound of the conservative’s proposed cuts after all.

  8. Don’t forget that the Tories were actually behind in the polls at one point before the 1979 election and many times before 1992.

  9. I realise the majority of people who make comments here are right wingers but that doesnt mean the whole country is in love with the Tory party.

    I think a few people may have been put off the voting conservative by ‘boy george’s’ conference speech promising a pay freeze for public sector workers while still advocating scrapping inheritance tax for the rich.

    We’re all in this together? Ha!

  10. Re “Shy BNP”,in the last thread ,the constituency was Boston(NW) not Bolton. The Labour vote went down from 1231 (in 2005 when they held the seat) to 204 this year. BNP came close(581 to 597) to capturing the seat from the Conservatives. Are there local reasons for this extraordinary change in the Labour vote from the last election year?

  11. @ Valarie

    Inheritance tax is a tax on the assets acquired with funds that have already been taxed. As such it is morally wrong regardless of the wealth of those involved.

    Why should anyone be taxed on giving something that they own to someone else?

    I wouldn’t mind so much if the proceeds were spent wisely on services that matter rather than blown on ever more “big government” and interference which no one has voted for or wants.

  12. My pension has already been taxed before I spend it and then have to pay VAT. Inheritance tax is a tax on unearned income, a windfall. It may seem like a tax on the dead, but when the Tories want people to work an extra year and for public sector workers on £18k to have their pay frozen, cutting IHT for the richest 3,000 families in the land is wholly inappropriate.

  13. For Andrew Myers.
    Andrew correct me if I’m wrong but you seem to be saying that all inheritence tax is ‘morally wrong’ as tax has already been paid on the dosh.

    Presumably, you also feel that interest payable on all savings should also be tax free. After all, I have already paid income tax on my modest savings which are not in a cash ISA.

    I think under these proposals the rich will certainly get a lot richer!

    I see that Dave is also backing tax breaks for married couples.

    If tory proposals are subjected to just a bit of media scrutiny more people will come to realise ‘leopards never change their spots’. The run up to the election will be interesting, for a change. I predict a fairly high turn out.