There is apparently a new ICM poll in the News of the World tomorrow. The topline figures with changes from their previous poll are CON 45%(+5), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 18%(-5).

ICM’s last poll was conducted towards the end of the Lib Dem conference, so the changes in this poll likely reflect the unwinding of the Liberal Democrat conference boost, and the heights of the Conservatives’ one. Compared to ICM’s pre-conference polling the Conservative are up 2, and the Lib Dems down one, but as I said with the polls this morning, it’s too early to draw any conclusions about overall effects from the conference season since the Conservatives may still be benefitting from a publicity boost.

As far as I’m aware this is the second highest lead that ICM have ever given the Conservative party (their highest ever was 20 points in June 2008).

UPDATE: Fieldwork for the poll was on the 7th and 8th October, so at least half of it would have been prior to David Cameron’s conference speech. The rest of the poll included a set of “best party on issues” questions. The Conservatives led on all but one – their biggest lead was law and order, where they led Labour by 21 points, followed by reducing debt (19 points ahead), Afghanistan (16 points) and the economy (15 points). Their lowest leads were Europe (6 points), the environment (5 points) and the NHS, where Labour had a narrow one point lead.


54 Responses to “ICM show 19 point Tory lead”

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  1. Peter Cairns,

    I agree that the US presidential debates were poor, largely due to Obama’s lack of substance, although some in the past have been excellent. On the other hand, the Republican debates were a very lively mix of personalities and different competing ideologies.

    Debates are all down to the people involved, which is one of the reasons I’d like to see Big ‘Eck involved. He after all has the most experience of leadership out of all the leaders with representation in parliament.

    Personally, I think big multi-candidate debates work best, as with the Republican and Democratic primary debates. Also, representation in parliament is the fairest sane criterion. That means the following participants: Brown, Cameron, Clegg, Robinson, Jones, Taylor, Empey, Durkan, Galloway and Adams (the last of which I suspect will not be attending). 10 isn’t that many in comparison to American debates and would be an education in Celtic politics for most of the country.

  2. Sorry, 11. Forgot about Eck himself.

  3. If they’re gunna do these things, I’d like to see them broken up into:
    “Who wants to be PM”; “Strictly PM dancing”; and the “Crapped on Factor”… I don’t want to hear their focus group crafted drivel… make ’em perform for me like chimps if that’s where we’re headed, no pretence at debate like they do on QT.

  4. Bill,

    The wiki page for the republican debates is interesting.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_debates,_2008#May_3.2C_2007_-_Simi_Valley.2C_California

    First it shows that the eventual republican candidate McCain did badly throughout. Maybe they should have listened more to the debates when choosing candidtaes, but of course here the candidates are already picked.

    As important, looking through the accounts an apparent bias from Fox appears to be present, so I suspect if we do have a debate, even though they are calling for it, it won’t be on Sky…..

    Peter.

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