Two factors mean it is likely that more women vote than men.

First (more important) factor: older people are more likely to vote than younger people. You do not need to be a qualified statistician to recognise that there are more older women than older men.

Secondly, as you surmise, more women, especially aged 30-50, are not away from home during the day as they are looking after children (or elderly relations) so can pcik a convenient time to visit the polling station.

Historically, these demographics have not had a major impact on the result as neither were homogenous, and together, broadly reflected voter distribution anyway. However, they can produce large shifts, and if both move in the same direction together, could have a big impact.

Interestingly, in 1997, Blair proved very popular with both groups, and this helped underpin his landslide. Could we see the same again but in reverse fro Cameron ?

I think the net effect of the last month – when it settles down – has been both of them perhaps up a bit each, as we get into the harsh, one way or the other choices.

The 117 seats the Tories need to gain can actually be played to their advantage, ironically, because the argument is that if you want a change it’s essential to vote Conservative, not Lib Dem or UKIP or abstain.

To have a large lead in the opinion polls that’s actually, in part, soft is actually vulnerable to an upsurge of third and minor parties when people think a Tory victory is inevitable when it is not.

Don’t forget that the Tory vote in 1983 was down on 1979 because people thought it was absolutely certain they’d get in again, so to have that sort of lead when you’ve got lots of seats to gain in opposition makes it less secure.