YouGov Daily figures – 44/27/17
After a narrowing of the Tory lead yesterday, today we have the first poll since David Cameron’s conference speech and it shows a swing back to them. The topline figures are CON 44%(+4), LAB 27%(-4), LDEM 17%(-1).
It’s a four point boost for the Conservatives, though of course that could well be being exaggerated by yesterday’s figures. We can never know for sure, but I expect yesterday’s was a bit of a freak result, and in reality Cameron’s speech had a less dramatic effect.
Comparing this to the last YouGov poll prior to the conference season, the Conservatives are up three, and Labour and the Liberal Democrats are completely unchanged (though before Conservative readers get too cheered by that, the final poll was done straight after Cameron’s speech, some of that will be pure “conference froth”).
Filed under: YouGov Daily Polls
So a 2-4% boost in support. Pretty much all the Tories could have realistically expected at this point, given that they already had a wide lead. There’s little scope for winning back disgruntled or centrist voters at this point for the Tories, as anyone easily won over would have been won over during the last few years.
A good result for the Tories, but also nothing that Labour will be gnashing their teeth over I suspect. The danger for Labour and the Lib Dems now is that the conferences were one of their last chances to turn things around and I don’t think we’ll see too many similar chances over the next 7 months.
A conference season that was more significant because of what DIDN’T happen rather than what DID, if you ask me.
Labour need something big to turn around 44/27/19 now.
I would say on that poll its the tories who have come out best.
The before and after Conference period results have shown little change showing no major gaffes have been made to alter the status quo.
However, they are back to Parliament next week which gives the incumbents every chance to foul things up again as they did before the recess. The Government also now has the interesting decision in the PBR to continue lying about the state of the country’s finances or to start to match (or out do) Osborne’s start to cutting spending.
The choice and the effect on the opinion polls should be interesting, both choices appear to herald another polling downturn for the Government.
The Tories will be very relieved by this poll.
I must say I’m rather pleased with the accuracy of my prediction I made yesterday. I predicated that by Sunday we would soon have a poll showing between Cons 43 to 45 and Lab 26 to 28.
Its a bit like someone receiving bad news from a doctor that one needs to be hospitalised. There is the initial shock, some denial and then acceptance.
Yeah, this won’t last.
Gunna be a rough Christmas, and plenty to grumble about about the guvment, and state of the country… lots of working people taking a big hit with the recession.
Tories might start slipping below that 40% plateau if people like Boris and the UKIP manage to make the EU treaty seem somehow immediately relevant to people’s lives… I reckon it’s maybe worth a couple of percent.
The trouble is if the media keep going on about it because they know it makes Cameron squirm, he could start seeming shifty and evasive on other issues.
I thought it wasn’t worth getting too stressed out yesterday!
As I said the last poll was a bit of a rogue. This one seems to lead in the other direction. The WMA is 41:28:18. I’m surprised that the Labour vote hasn’t collapsed but it clearly hasn’t yet and so far there is no evidence that the parties will break out of the ranges in the past 210 days during the next 210 days.
Thank you Anthony, these daily polls have been interesting not least because the smaller samples have lead to big swings…when nothing has changed very much!
The Tories will be very pleased with this. Time is slipping by and what they need to do is avoid slipping on banana skins. I always admired Don Revie’s tactics at Leeds Utd. The Tories need to do just the same. It’s very strange to watch an opposition playing a defensive game to win.Governments DO lose elections.
4.30 Seal Pup. If the Lisbon constitution seems immediately relevant to people’s lives, how can that damage the Conservatives? Labour refused the public a referendum(as did the LDs) – or are you saying you think people are too stupid to remember?
A good result for the Tories. Some pundits were speculating that first Osborne’s and then Cameron’s speeches might have been too radical and scared off some jittery voters. Doesn’t seem to have happened, though.
Admittedly the pundits I have in mind all seem to work for The Guardian, ever delusional in the face of reality.
Interesting result – does not seem to fit what various focus groups said after they had time to review all 3 conferences. So I am interested to see what happens to polling opinion over the week-end. I suspect we may all end up where we started
Seal Pup says that the Conservatives might suffer if the Lisbon Treaty becomes more relevant to the electorate but I would like to ask a question. I think that President Klaus’s agenda is to delay signing the treaty until after the British general election and subsequent referendum, assuming a Tory victory. Do you not think that if this becomes apparently obvious, the Conservatives might pick up votes from Eurosceptics currently supporting other parties?
Can anyone tell me what lead the Conservatives need to gain an overall majority in the House of Commons? Much appreciated…
Well, at the end of August / early Sep the polls were broadly showing:
Con – 40-42%
Lab – 25-27%
LD – 17-19%
It would seem that the conference season has seen a slight improvement in both Con and Lab position, but LDs have gained no traction whatsoever.
It may of course simply be that what we have seen has been a continuation of the slow decline in “others ” with voters drifting back to the two main parties, and that the conferences themselves have had aboslutely no effect whatsoever.
Remember also that the yougov daily polls in the past three weeks are likely to have been replied to by people who have given some thought to the conferences in responding – even if those answering might otherwise have paid no attention.
If the next regular YouGov or other non-YouGov polls later this month show results around 43-45% / 28-30% / 16-18%; then the chances are that these figures will continue until / unless there is a seismic event to change attitudes.
@ Nicholas
A lead over Labour of 8% should give them a simple majority.
They need a 10n point majority over labour to have a majority and form a government.
I just need to say that Seal Pup needs to realise that it is the government that has refused a referendum not the Tories. If it becomes law before the election then we cant have a referendum on joining the Lisbon Treaty because brown would have already sold us down the swany to Europe. Is it not simple that if this happens Labour will suffer more then the Tories and only to UKIP as the Lib Dems are pro Euro as well.
I do think come a General Election people will not only vote on Europe more on everything and mainly on Labours failings. Especially if we have already signed up to Lisbon as there will be not much we can change to it and it will be Browns fault if this is the case.
It is 10 points needed as 9 points was hung parliament, so 8 will definately be hung parliament.
It could depend on the Lib Dems as well.
I am (pleasantly) surprised.
I really thought Osborne & Cameron had scared the horses.
If this confirms the “Cameron on the Telly” effect . then the TV debates & the GE campaign might be a hearbreaker for Labour-assuming GB still in post.
@ Craig U – how much of a lead they need to gain a majority really depends on the vote spread. But, yes, 10+% is broadly about what’s needed to be sure.
Can anyone tell us how long YouGov is continuing the trackers?
Collin, this is the final time (thank goodness)
I think the polls are pretty steady, overall, at
Con 41
Lab 28
LD 18′ish
A comfortable Conservative majority.
But the recent conference polls have suggested that a lot could happen to move it either way between now and the election and I’d be very surprised not to see ‘Others’ decline further and the gap close a bit between the two main parties.
I’d say put your money on a Conservative majority of around 35 – 55
is there any data on whether more women than men vote at GE’s. Only ask as its seems that David Cameron has a big female following and this might alter somewhat the final result. Are women more inclined to get out and vote? Could be a factor in marginals especially where a lot of women stay home with children
I imagine that Labour would have been hoping for the Conference to be the start of their comeback – that certainly seemed to be their message to their supporters. The polls suggest, however, that little has changed for Labour.
With Labour’s hope of a conference boost dead in the water, can we expect them to turn on Brown again in a last desperate attempt to boost their ratings by replacing Brown with …. anyone but Brown?
Pointless set of polls paid for out of my Sky subscription. At least PB.com will be a less tedious from now on…!
[Typo corrected, Ant'
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Although the numbers don’t appear to haven’t changed much, I think the main result of the conference season is that we’ve started to move to a slightly more grown up agenda which confronts the “inconvenient truth”, instead of skirting round the real issue.
If that means people start to believe the Tories can and will deal with the problems we face, perhaps some of their vote will start to “solidify”. These initial indications seem to suggest that people are willing to accept the reality.
Anthony Wells,
I just spent half an hour carefully writing out a comment, put in captcha code correctly, then it failed and I lost everything I wrote.
Philip JW
Paul HJ
If one looks just at the Yougov polls then it shows that Labour saw no improvement during the conference season.
It is particularly clear when one looks at the Populus polls that they rose to 27% due to things becoming quiet during the Summer break. No news proved to be good news for Labour.
In the months leading up to the GE the parties will not be taking turns as during the conference season, things will be far from quiet, and the Lib Dems will be having their fair share of media coverage.
For these reasons I expect the gap between Labour anf the Lib Dems to close considerably.
I agree with Fluffy. I think Sky and YouGov can take probably learn the lesson that daily polling with small sample sizes during conference season really is “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” to quote the Scottish play. I’d say a single decent sized poll each week with sampling for two days after the leader’s speech would be a better use of their time.
Sorry if you were in any way involved in the experiment, Anthony, but I think it was a failure.
Philip,
I would agree with you, but the Lib Dems have really been squeezed over the last year. So many things that one would have expected to propel the party forward have had a negligible impact on their fortunes.
Although these polls haven’t shifted much, I don’t think they’re a waste of time. Most readers of this site will recognise the extra noise from the smaller sample size, but they’ve illustrated Anthony’s point about the transient bounce the parties receive after each of their conferences. They would also have picked up more significant shifts in support.
An 8 point lead over Labour can achieve a small majority if the LD vote collapses and goes to Others.
Realistically they need around 10 points to guarantee a majority and don’t forget that there are usually 10 or so Unionist MPs who will generally vote with the Tories so they can form a workable government with a majority in the teens of seats (although 40+ is obviously ideal).
Still an overrated time period…
New YouGov poll in The Sun showing 42/28/19.
I think both of the main parties have lost a bit of ground – very slightly – to the Lib Dems in 2009 compared to 2007/2008.
I think the net effect of the last month – when it settles down – has been both of them perhaps up a bit each, as we get into the harsh, one way or the other choices.
The 117 seats the Tories need to gain can actually be played to their advantage, ironically, because the argument is that if you want a change it’s essential to vote Conservative, not Lib Dem or UKIP or abstain.
To have a large lead in the opinion polls that’s actually, in part, soft is actually vulnerable to an upsurge of third and minor parties when people think a Tory victory is inevitable when it is not.
Don’t forget that the Tory vote in 1983 was down on 1979 because people thought it was absolutely certain they’d get in again, so to have that sort of lead when you’ve got lots of seats to gain in opposition makes it less secure.
Possibly there’s a lag (day, 2, 3 is unlikely) in Conference effect. To test the hypothesis requires a poll(s) tomorrow (& Sunday).
Stephen,
Two factors mean it is likely that more women vote than men.
First (more important) factor: older people are more likely to vote than younger people. You do not need to be a qualified statistician to recognise that there are more older women than older men.
Secondly, as you surmise, more women, especially aged 30-50, are not away from home during the day as they are looking after children (or elderly relations) so can pcik a convenient time to visit the polling station.
Historically, these demographics have not had a major impact on the result as neither were homogenous, and together, broadly reflected voter distribution anyway. However, they can produce large shifts, and if both move in the same direction together, could have a big impact.
Interestingly, in 1997, Blair proved very popular with both groups, and this helped underpin his landslide. Could we see the same again but in reverse fro Cameron ?
The conference season does not seem to have made a busting difference does it? If anything the Tories seem to have picked up a bit – nice.