There is a new YouGov poll in the People tomorrow. Topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 28%, LDEM 18%. Changes seem rather pointless, since this will have been done at roughly the same time as the last YouGov daily poll (for the record that was 41/29/17, so all within one point).

I understand there is at least one more poll to come tonight, so more later.


14 Responses to “New YouGov/People poll”

  1. Would the other poll coming be a Harris poll? I had one with a voting intention question in yesterday, glad to see its return to political polling wasn’t just a one off.

  2. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose…

  3. Anthony

    I’ve raised the question a couple of times before.

    Only in a very close result in England, will the results from Scotland, Wales and NI matter in determening the government of the UK.

    Including the Scots and Welsh data (from their different polities) corrupts the more “meaningful” English data.

    Why do the pollsters do this?

  4. Only in a very close result in the rest of the nation, will results from the Midlands matter, however pollsters continue to include midlands data. It is a mystery.

  5. ComRes poll for I on S shows similar results to the You Gov poll

  6. WOOD

    The Midlands don’t have a 4 party system where the Tories are 3rd out of 4.

    It isn’t about excluding a geographical area from the poll, but an area where the party and voting structure is wholly dissimilar. That’s why the pollsters exclude NI, and conduct GB not UK polls.

    While voting patterns vary across England, people are voting within a single political system.

  7. I’m afraid I still don’t see your point, I’m sure there are seats in england which have one of the big 3 in 4th place too.

    It just doesn’t make sense to me to ignore scottish or welsh data…the lab seats in those areas will still count, any cons will too…and that it skews to show cons and lab as less likely to win….that’s because they are less likely to win in those areas.

  8. The other poll is a Com Res/IOS poll Con 40% (+2), Lab 28% (+5), Lib Dems 19% (-4) (via http://twitter.com/tweetminster/

  9. I imagine you don’t understand the point because you still imagine there is a “British political system”. There aren’t. There are three. Just like the NHS. Pollsters like YouGov still ask questions about “the” NHS in GB wide polls, although the responses of the Scots and Welsh refer to their own systems.

    It simply makes no sense to try to aggregate the results from dissimilar systems.

    I am not saying that there should be no polling of Scotland and Wales – simply that they need to be polled separately.

    Polls are only meaningful within coherent unified systems. That’s presumably why Anthony applies different criteria to his calculations for Scotland.

  10. Oldnat,

    I assure you there is still a British political system. Much as you and your party, and your Glorious Leader Comrade Salmon would like that system done away with, it exists still. And while it exists it makes perfect sense to poll in Scotland and Wales.

    The reason polling is not conducted in Northern Ireland is that they have DIFFERENT parties – the UK parties do not stand. In Scotland and Wales we have ADDITIONAL parties, but the mainstream parties still stand. In parts of Newcastle and Liverpool the Conservatives are in third place, the data from these places is still included in polls. In Cornwall the Labour party is in 6th place – doesn’t mean we should stop polling in Cornwall.

    Get down off your hobby horse and welcome back to reality.

  11. OldNat

    The answer to your question is on the Herald site to-day in a piece on broadcast election debates. It appears to be a lift from an SNP press release.

    The key phrase is “depressingly metropolitain mindset.”

    Were it not for that, exhibited by governments over the last 50 years, and the London media are just as culpable, yout party would barely exist and would still consist of a handful of romantics with no political power at any level. That was where the SNP were half a century ago and if the situation has changed it is not because of anything the SNP have done.

    The polling weakness you refer to has the same root cause: a “depressingly metropolitan mindset.”

    Neil’s analogy is false because the “additional” party in Scotland is no longer on the margins of electability and of no significance in a “British” context. Failure to recognise that change is also the product of a “depressingly metropolitan mindset.”

    If you are really old enough to be one of the handful of early romantics, be grateful for the “depressingly metropolitain mindset” for not only has it built support for your party, but it has done so to the point where we are on the brink of independence and the metropolitain government and media have not noticed or understood what is happening so that it is now too late to avoid the crisis for their attention is still elsewhere.

    You wouldn’t want better poll data to change that, would you?

  12. Anthony:

    OldNat again refers to the Yougov NHS issue.

    In 1948 the Scottish NHS was different from the NHS in England because it was different in 1848. There was more money, more doctors, more public services and greater public support then, and it’s no different now. It isn’t primarily anything to do with devolution or the election of an SNP government, though that has also created divergance.

    Three first class Labour health ministers have now been followed by the workaholic politician of the year, the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon. My career was as a Chief Financial Officer in the NHS and in my view she is probably the best health minister I have seen in either system.

    I am told that there is an academic specialising in health data who has moved to Scotland because of the differences between the two systems and NewLabour systems which do not apply in Scotland.

    If you cannot influence YouGov, can you help me answer the next set of their questions about the NHS? If I could be assured that my answers were being matched with my location, I would know what to do, but I fear that my answers will be thought to apply to the NHS which is the responsibility of the Westminster government, not the one I use.

    What “country” am I in? I need to know so that I can decide on whether I like “the way things are going”? The answers are diametrically opposed.

  13. I think fire from north of the border is being directly squarely at the messenger.

    The likes of Yougov give their clienst what they want and most of the parties and papers want and that is UK polls. The papers by and large want Uk wide polls and don’t much care for or see the need for seperate Scottish polls.

    Its true that issue s like the NHs will add a distortion but I am not sure how significant it is. Ina YK ( less NI) poll it’s only about 10% and I am not sure that all Scots actually recognise the differences.

    Even if they do, as someone who watches the polls closely although there really are big voting differences between Scotland and England when you look at the polls on specific issues the differences between Scotland and England really aren’t that large.

    It really is a curious thing that two nations where the difference on key issues when asked outwith a national or political context aren’t that different seem to vote so differently.

    Time and time again when you look at individual issues Scots are only marginally diferent from English on their views, but put it in a political context, such as a question on the NHS asking which party is best, Labour or Tory and the views swing in Labours favour.

    In a nutshell I don’t have a problem with UK polls, I’d prefer scottish ones but UK will do just fine.

    Peter.

  14. Calm before the storm… we won’t be able to see the direction of the wind until after the conference season manoeuvering dies down.