There’s a new ComRes poll in tomorrow’s Indy. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 38%(-2), LAB 23%(-1), LDEM 23%(+2). It’s actually a smaller boost for the Lib Dems that the polls we saw from ICM and YouGov, but ComRes already had them at a high rating anyway, resulting in the unusual result of having Labour and the Lib Dems equal.

The survey also had a series of questions on how people would vote with different Labour party leaders, which is likely to get rather more attention. I’ll have a proper look at that and update later.


18 Responses to “Labour and Lib Dems equal in new ComRes poll”

  1. Also the lowest Tory rating for more than 2 months.

    It will be interesting to see, post-conference season, which party’s bounce is biggest, and where it comes from. Presuming that ‘Operation Fightback'(!!) gives Labour some kind of conference bounce, I wonder whether those votes end up coming from present Conservative or Lib-Dem backers – my assumption is the latter – or from ‘Others’. At present, it appears that any Lib-Dem conference bounce has mainly been to the detriment of the Tories.

  2. @Misterdavid,

    Given that the LibDems fired 100% of their ammunition at the Tories and barely mentioned Labour its no surprise that the Tories took a slight hit. Labour will do the same, and so the Tories’s dip may continue. So long as the dip isn’t too deep (ie taking them below 36-37% or so) then I would imagine the Tory conference, and the passage of time, will return things to more or less where they were.

    If the dip is deep and sustained it may set nerves jangling amongst the Tories and cause some discontent that could snowball.

  3. The alternative Labour leader results look very dodgy. Jack Straw as PM = Tories on 31%? Plus the tendency for “others” to increase.

  4. Anthony Wells,

    Did you mean UNusual result of having Labour and Lib Dems equal?

    Even though I am hoping the Lib Dems will do well I stick to my assessment that the actual situation is likely to be Con 40 Lab 26 Lib Dems 22. Still it looks good and may result in a little positive publicity for the Lib Dems.

    With some luck the Lib Dems and Lab may in reality be equal on 23, and for better or for worse the Cons on 43 in a few weeks time.

  5. ComRes have a habit of chucking out some odd numbers, and I’ll pause before believing both the Con and Lab scores on this one.

  6. The detailed data tables are in the Comres website . They show the Greens with an unusually high figure of 7% of the national vote .i

  7. Interesting to note on the graph – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention – that the Labour and Conservative figures seem to have continued to rise and fall alongside each other (rather than against each other) – since the expenses scandal.

  8. Wes White:

    That could be more significant than the numbers.

  9. Although I have a festish for all the figures and the polls, for the purposes of making accurate predictions a consideration of how must appear to the public is at least as important. And this far from the election, the finer details such as the coherence and integrity of party policies, and the level of disunity and in-fighting, will not be details that most people are registering. As we draw closer to the election, these things become more important, and are bound to result in a further decline in labour support on the grounds of both policy and leadership.

    For the tories, there is a degree of unity which is wholly attributable to a faith in the leadership, as there are many policy contridictions (e.g. inheritance tax cuts vs deficit reduction) – and many vulnerabilities which are likely to haunt them (e.g. bedfellows in the european parliament, and policy tensions between the old and new gard).

    I really think that in terms of policy, the lib dems have been first off the mark to articulated in a realistic and honest way, and all though there are questions over the detail, the direction and overall coherence is not matched by the other parties. If they had a half decent leader, I’m sure they’d sail into second place – as it stands, I still think they have a very good chance.

  10. I am going to say something now that makes me sick to the stomach……………………………………………………………………………………………………………Gordon Brown did very well yesterday (threre i said!!!) both on Andrew Marr and then at the question and answer session he has obvisously been training over the summer recess.
    If this slightly more confident Gordon comes out of the blocks over the next few months then i think we could see the polls lead shrink further.

    Just one other thought the lead as i said a few weeks back is now down to between 13-14% could this be a closing of the polls in the final run up to the election next year

  11. Weighted Moving Average 40:25:21. The C/Lab lead is a constant 15 this month but the Lab/LibDem lead has shrunk from 9 to 4. Last time it did this it bottomed in early june at 3 (2.7 if you want the 2nd digit) but it will be fascinating to see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

    I’m now assuming the GE will be on 6 May ie about 220 days. Over the last 220 days the WMA C lead has been 15 with a Standard Deviation of 1.7. This suggests that it is highly unlikely that the CLead will be less than 12 at the GE, other things being remotely equal. But, as always, we await “events…”

  12. @Onthejob – I wouldn’t get too worried. I’m no fan of Cameron, but I suspect the die is cast for Labour. Even if Brown starts to perform well, the economy booms and Labour come out with a string of excellent policy announcements, it looks like people have stopped listening. I think there could be a tightening in the polls if Labour gets it right, but I can’t see much more than that, (unless Cameron is caught having sex with a dog on Hampstead Heath, or something equally unlikely).

  13. I notice that the BBC have come to heel for the party conference and completely stopped making any reference to the Baroness Scotland story.

    This poll is interesting for two reasons – firstly the Conservative score being the lowest it has been since June (I think), although the lead remains at 15 and Anthony’s swingometer gives a majority of over 50. Secondly, and a lot more interestingly, the Libdems have caught up with Labour for only the second (I think) time this parliament. Last time this happened they failed to capitalise, and I think they will fail again as the Labour party conference is just coming up.

    If the Libdems had directed their fire on Labour at their conference they might have done better in the medium term, as they could have been propelled above Labour – as it is, I don’t think we should give a ComRes poll showing them equal too much weight, unless it is backed up by YouGov or IpsosMORI.

  14. Neil,

    If you look closely at the detailed tables of the last ICM poll (post LD conf.) there is an intriguing figure for total Lab and LD voters – Lab – 186, LD 173.

    The published figures show Lab slightly ahead because the Lab respondents had a higher likelihood of voting (about 23% of LD share were at 5/10 or less).

    It would seem that post LD conf and going into the Lab conf the two parties are far closer in terms of overall support than we have previously seen. If that situation has not changed substantially by the end of next week this could turn out to be a tipping point for LDs.

  15. The changes in party support represented by this poll are within sampling error, and also possibly reflect a post-Conference LibDem bounce.

    All the same, we should bear in mind that in actual local elections in recent years the LibDems and Labour have repeatedly been about equal across the country, with the LibDems slightly ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens in the General Election. One reason is that the LibDems are likely to benefit from tactical voting when the time comes. I suspect, however, that in most cses the LibDems will as a result come a better second in a number of constituencies rather than actually gain seats. See recent discussion on the Liverpool Wavertre thread.

  16. @Neil

    ‘the BBC have come to heel’
    yeah right !! just like they did yesterday with the questions from Andrew Marr on prescription drug abuse or didn’t you see that.

    I think the BBC gets it just right ,its gets pilloried by the left for being too establishment biased and the right for being too left wing !!

  17. @Richard Dawson – absolutely agree. One area that I deeply concerned about are the noises coming from the Tories about the BBC. We’ve already seen some shocking attempts to politicise London policing, and with shadow ministers suggesting the BBC needs to employ more Conservatives, we could be in for a rough ride. Increasingly I see a deep arrogance within Tory ranks that harks back to the 1980s – if it develops it will be very damaging for the country as a whole.

  18. Another false dawn and wishful thinking.

    I don’t read the Indy, but I get the impression that it’s the paper that advances Lib Dem prospects as the Guardian does for Labour?