Of course it also applies in right wing countries as it’s a world wide problem generated by both left and right wing govts.. Neat to note, as well, that China -Communist, gasp, horror, horror,- seems to be getting out of tit all pretty well.

My point is simple; a little bit of comparative world awareness never goes amiss… Tabloid press platitudes like yours are just insulting…

Thanks for that link. Interesting article. And timing too – I wonder if it was deliberately placed to undermine Howard in run-up to 2005 election ?

Rich / David D,

Plausible view. An Autumn election and change of government would be in the best interests of the country and practically everyone in it except those Labour MPs facing unemployment and all (current)Ministers who will see a big drop in their income (assuming they retain their seat). Even those on welfare or in the publis sector who see Tories as a threat to their lifestyle / livelihood must now realise that cuts in public spending will happen regardless of who is in power, and the sooner that the issues are properly debated and addressed the better it will be in the medium/long-term.

So, IF Brown no longer sees May 2010 as being in his personal best interest – a view likely to be as much influenced by Mrs Brown as by anyone else, including Mandy – then we may see Brown summoning the courage to do the right thing for the country.

The biggest problem Labour have is they have lost all control of events.The one thing we have stopped talking about is the Lib-dems,if they were to have a superb Conference as their expectations are low & easy for them to beat.labour have a poor conference with rebels speaking out,coupled with Glasgow by-election loss,bad unemployment & fiscal data,labour could go into Jan 2010 in 3rd place.

I have always thought that with a budget due almost at the same time as a dissolution,Labour may not be able to pollitically afford a May 2010 Election with a bad news budget almost assured at end of March start of April 2010.

It is almost taken for granted that a return to positive GDP growth will return Labour to 30% or so in the polls,maybe the people who assume this have not taken into account the British media,they always look on the gloomy side,as soon as the recession has ended they will talk of double dips or unemployment and debt.

Also we do not know about talks behind the scenes on the fiscal front,the credit agencies have warned the UK or S&P have,in short they want the UK not to make cuts but to spell out cuts that will be made in the coming years,they may not wait until June/July 2010 for the next UK Government to announce these things,is this behind the change of heart by Brown on public spending cuts announced on Tuesday? if so & reality has set in at #10 a May 2010 GE could be political suicide for Labour,as they will have to spell out in full the cuts before a May Election.

Labour may well conclude, try & hold theiir Party together for a united conference,try & milk good news from an official end of the recession then go for it in OCT or NOV.

Labour will lose in my opinion but looking at a 50 seat tory Maj,compared to a 100-150 tory Maj may not seem important now,but in the years after the election & the state of the Labour Party post Brown it may be crucial to whether the Labour Party is out of power for 10 yrs or 20+.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article512631.ece

“Mr Lawson quit, frustrated that Mrs Thatcher was under the thumb of her Eurosceptic economic adviser, Sir Alan Walters, and would never yield.

John Major, the new Chancellor, eventually pressurised a vulnerable Mrs Thatcher into changing her mind.

Paragraphs removed from the two papers, but accidently leaked to the BBC, show how politics drove crucial economic decisions.

“Mrs Thatcher’s removal of her veto on ERM membership was determined by her own increasing political weakness,” the papers said. “October 1990 was clearly not an optimal time for the UK to join the ERM.” Mr Major told Mrs Thatcher ERM membership was the price she would have to pay for a cut in interest rates. “

Your quite correct on it being 2.95 and not 1.95, but I think you should check the Major v Thatcher part.

I think it’s in his Autobiography that Thatcher called him out of the blue and effectively told him to do it. he was a strong advocate of entrty and had argued for it but the way it was done and the rate was down to Thatcher.

Peter.