Tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph reports that CrosbyTextorPepper have repeated their poll of the 30 seats seats most vulnerable to the Conservatives (last time they did it I believe they used the top thirty seats on this list). The breakdown in support in these seats stands at CON 44%, LAB 20%, LDEM 18%. At the last election support in these seats stood at CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 25%, so the poll represents a swing of 8.5%, the equivalent of a 14 point national lead for the Conservatives, so much in line with national polling.

When CrosbyTextor last polled these seats (see my reports here and here), back in late June 2008, the figures were CON 49%, LAB 20%, LDEM 21% – so this poll actually shows the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats down on last year – not that this should come as a particular surprise to us, given that in June last year the national polls were giving the Tories leads of around 20 points.

This is assuming that the Sunday Telegraph figures are excluding don’t knows and wouldn’t votes – last year they published figures including them, and I had to get the tables from CrosbyTextor/Flying Matters in order to get the comparable repercentaged figures.

The poll was conducted between the 1st and 11th July.


107 Responses to “New CrosbyTextorPepper poll of marginal seats”

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  1. “others” up again then… about 7% over the year.

  2. Neil John, Did you read the recent report that said that government spending and support per capita in Wales,NI.Scotland,was larger than in Cuba,Nicaragua,just about says it all about this government.That why i think England will decide the election and my opinion is labour will be will be wiped out in England

  3. “The interesting marginals aren’t the low hanging fruit, but the ones the Conservatives need to win to get an overall majority, or a large majority.”

    Exactly.

    Which means the list which would be most interesting is the top 30-50 Labour-held tory target seats.

    In my area, Reading West is 81st (107th overall) and would appear to be on the fringes of consideration, but as Labour’s last bastion for miles around in a regional union hq with a candidate who has made a couple of significant gaffes this looks to be the kind of seat to be used as a barometer for the nation.

    If the swing of 8.5% measured in the top 30 targets is repeated nationally then this would suggest Cameron gains his 166 top targets and has a majority around 200, which compares with a projected majority of 80 according to the polls.

    So I think a poll of ‘signpost’ seats would be an equally good subject for discission as the ‘key’ seats.

    I also wonder if there isn’t a way to represent the geometry of broad swings in more than a one-dimensional manner.

  4. Neil A

    There is no conservative-nationalist vote in Scotland? Really? That’d make it pretty much the only country in the democratic world without one.

    There are a handful of free-market right wingers active in the SNP. The solid burghers were the backbone of the Conservative party 50 years ago but they didn’t have an that nobler earlier time to be nostalgic about.

  5. Neil A

    The solid Edinburgh burgher I knew best was a lifetime Conservative voter till he, a widower, obtained an unlooked for financial benefit in the poll tax while his housekeeper, with an unemployed husband and three unemployed adult sons at home had to pay more. He was outraged at what he saw as an attempt to buy his vote.

    I don’t recognise the others you mention.

    Scotland (according to the FM) is not full up. The Justice secretary has described the recent immigrants as “colourful threads in the tartan that is modern Scotland.” The Education Secretary has implemeted a deal set up by the previous Labour FM which ensures that failed Asylum seekers families with children in Scottish schools are not deported and the first of the oldest of these children are now in FREE tertiary education.

    There can’t be many, if any, countries that have sent more of its people abroad what with the clearances and the empire, and within living memory a third of the population of Glasgow was of recent Irish decent. The numerous wartime and immediately post-war Polish immigrants and their progeny turned out to welcome the pope but otherwise you wouldn’t know that they were there.

    There is a Sikh tartan and a Jewish one.

    The SNP’s policy is that if you own property and are here on the day, you can be a Scottish Citizen. The downside of that is we may be exposed to pictures of Al Fayed in a kilt.

  6. Neil A

    There is no conservative-nationalist vote in Scotland? Really? That’d make it pretty much the only country in the democratic world without one.

    That’s an interesting observation, worth thinking about.

    Peter Cairns has explained why on this site. He distinguishes between Social Conservatives and Economic Conservatives. I wouldn’t attempt to better his explanation but offer historical background instead.

    Richard:

    Why would Scotland be different?

    My history teacher used to say that Scotland lost its aristocracy on the battlefield of Flodden, and the playing fields of Eton.

    My answer above is the reformation and 19th C Cholera, including the defeat of the conservatives in the church who offered prayer and fasting as a solution. Lord Palmerston told them to clear up the mess instead. It worked.

    As I said, the burghers paid willingly (and danced, ate and sang to raise funds) and the poor benefited. In the 1970’s my wife trained as a midwife and was told that so long as she was in uniform and carried her distinctive bag, she need have no concern about going into parts of the city where the police would only go in pairs. In the 1950’s it would be a brave or foolhardy councillor who would challenge the MOH if he wanted more resources.

    By the way, I went to an independant school of about 600 pupils. My year and the one above produced four MP’s of different parties, two double murderers and a spy.

    The national poet subscribed to buy a cannon for the French revolution and his leftish message and values are very directly and plainly expressed in much of his output. Some of his works are annually recited in dinners in his memory all over the world. I think that is an indication that his message may still have some influence on opinion and distinguishes him from the others you mention, Scottish or not.

  7. “There is a Sikh tartan and a Jewish one.

    The SNP’s policy is that if you own property and are here on the day, you can be a Scottish Citizen. The downside of that is we may be exposed to pictures of Al Fayed in a kilt.”

    …and the dilution of identity to include all, results in that identity ceasing to exist beyond the realms of schmutter shops and american notions of everyone being a sixteenth of everything.
    turning an ethnic identity into simply an idea, and a collection of vague abstract nouns that could apply to anyone is a disingenuous “big lie”, and a subtle and insidious form of ethnic cleansing.
    …it reminds me of what authoritarian governments like China do in Tibet or Indonesia in Irian Jaya, or what Japan attempted in Korea in 1910-45… where they imported a new ethnic group into the ancestral land of another without consent; then declared the incomers to be as much of the same identity as the indigenous ethnic group, despite obviously being of a completely different ethnic stock and religious-cultural and linguistic group; then the incomer usurp the identity of the indigenous people officially, so that any difference officially ceases to exist, and along with it any notion of separateness, save for history books… a bit like what happened to the Cornish to a large extent in the UK… you may as well exchange the entire population of Scotland with that of the waTutsi of Burundi, and declare each to possess the ethnic identity of the other… delete all the inconvenient geographical names, and rewrite the history… isn’t this, after all the ultimate goal of “diversity”? “fluffy, trendy ethnic cleansing”?

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