Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been published and has figures of CON 40%(+2), LAB 24%(+3), LDEM 18%(-1). I don’t have the figures for “others”, but looking at the changes from their last poll we can assume that, like all the other recent polls, they are in decline.

In this case, it’s Labour who have gained the most, but together with the other recent polls that have shown the Lib Dems or Conservatives with the largest increase I think we can reasonably conclude that the decline in support for minor parties has not disproportionately benefited any of the big three.


98 Responses to “MORI monthly political monitor”

1 2
  1. I think these recent polls have answered some of the question marks over whether the Tories can regain the ground lost over expenses. It looks pretty comfortable for them and adds to the overall impression that enough people have made up their minds that a change of government is required. So long as they stay over 40% their position will be bomb proof, whatever recovery Labour can pull off, if any.

  2. labour are coming back up to be fair as predicted but the tories are also gaining back ground, but as soon as the tories hit 42% again the labour party may start to fall back to 22-23% the lib dems are up slightly as well as the others fall away but we are seeing the return to normal polling this month just think what the torie lead could be after the summer

  3. Stuart,

    They have hit 42% see YouGov earlier this week and ICM last week 41% and You Gov end June 40%

  4. wayne.

    some time i wonder about you, they are not averageing 42% yet once they are there then its all over in my eyes. the current average for this month is 39.8% for the conservatives, 25% for labour and 19.6% for the ib dems which leaves the others on 15.6%. on those figuers the tories would win a majority of 76 seats in the new house of parliment.

  5. As a new contributor, I wondered if the author or any commentators had considered the implication of the projected 23% Labour share in the County Council elections? It would seem that if their overall national share is about 25%, then their vote share in their normal strongholds must be at about 30%. This might indicate that they have lost their stronghold (high population, urban) regions. If so, Labour’s return in seats could be stunningly low? Does anyone have any ideas on whether this makes sense?

  6. WMA remains 39:25:19 really nothing is changing. Odd but seemingly true.

  7. ‘a week is a long time in politics’ – and the GE is 9 months away. All rests on whether or not the economic recovery is sustained and reverses unemployment before the GE. If so then the focus will be on Osborne’s lack of credible fiscal policies – and that could be their undoing. Odd though that UKIP are in decline, perhaps Cameron’s decision to join a an extreme right wing grouping in the EU will pay off, without too many desertions from his sensible wing.

  8. If you take the more sensible figures that Mori give for those 6-10 certain to vote the Conservatives are below 40% The figures are Con 38 Lab 24 LD 19 Others 20 .
    The detailed data shows very good LibDem figures . comparing how people voted in 2005 to now . They lose 8 voters to Con 8 to Labour and 13 to others but gain 8 from Con and 29 from Labour . The lack of past vote weighting as used by ICM Comres and Populus knocks around 2% from the final headline figures .

  9. Well it’s good to see the others vote declining as expected, with votes generally coming back to three main parties reasonably evenly. If the ratio of CON:LAB:LD we have had recently were repeated on around 10% ‘others’ vote (not an unreasonable assumption as the ratio has remained fairly static throughout the course of the euros, with just the others vote affecting the size of the figures) we’d be looking at 43:27:21 and a Conservative majority of around 100.

  10. As each of the established parties has a minimum core vote the approximate 8% swing to the Tories will actually be much greater in many marginals so therefore a uniform swing producing a maj of 100 will actually produce a maj of 120-125 similarly 50-70 =70-85

  11. @Eric, Glad to see we are sticking to being none partisan…..

    It is unlikely in any case that unemployment will recover before the GE. In all previous “downturns” unemployment always trails behind.

    With regards to Osbornes lack of credible fiscal policies????? Which party will actually make real changes to the triumverate at the center of the current debacle? Labour Didn’t and never will (they have no more influence left having sold it all to bankers during the “boom” years).

    I would also draw your attention to current fiscal policy of Labour – spend spend spend (today £20 biwwion (sorry Gordon) pounds of Tax revenue was lost due to lower reciepts. Timebomb anyone

    and finally with regard to Cameron joining a so called right wing grouping, well expect the grouping to change over time as more none euro empire / tony blair for presidentites join them. We are all for cooperation in Europe, but not sovereignty.

  12. Keir

    Not to mention the Treasury having their accounts qualified by the NAO, for only the second time in history (for those keeping score, the other time was 99-00). No spending review, accounts not signed off – what more ammunition do the Tories need to nail Labour?

    Anyway, in the spirit of non-partisanship, does anyone find it highly concerning that the DWP had their accounts qualified for the 20th consecutive year?

  13. Tim Crowther,

    By way of clarification, the 23% PROJECTED Lab share of the vote at the County Councils was just that. A projection of what their share would have been nationally if all parts of the country had voted. In other words, adjustment had already been made in those figures to compensate for the fact that the elections took place in predominantly Con (or LD) shire counties. (Otherwise how did Lab manage to come away with so few seats if they had actually polled 23% in those districts ?)

    It is difficult to tell with any confidence from the County Council results alone how Lab are performing in the metropolitan districts since only a few areas with similar profile had elections. The nearest to such areas that voted were the (former) mill-towns north of Manchester – where Lab lost the County on a big swing.

    However, leaving aside that Lab did badly in all four counties they were defending (and even worse in many where they have long since lost control), we do have the evidence from the Euro elections on the same day.

    Even if one adjusts the euro figures upwards to compensate for the large “others” vote, there is no precedent for the appaling results Labour saw. It is bad enough that they fell into third place with well below 20% of the votes cast. But the fact is that Labour only topped the poll in one region (North East) and here their majority over Con was slashed from 15% in 2004 to just 5%. Even in this, their best region, they failed to reach 25% (actual result was 24.98%)

    So, even adjusting for others (add 20-25% of whatever each main party scored in each region for a truer picture) Labour are only just scraping 30% in their core areas.

    However, in many of these urban seats, Lab could well see their opposition divided (Con / LD / SNP-Plaid / BNP / Green / UKIP etc) and so could hang onto a number of seats even with a vote share under 35% (or 30% in Scotland / Wales).

    The real danger for Labour is if a real “anyone but Lab” mood takes hold and voters coalesce around a single opponent. This happened to Tories in 1997 which led to so many LD gains in areas where Lab could not win. LDs will be hoping that next time they will be that focal point in many urban seats, but the end result may well be more results like that seen in Watford in 2005 where Lab hang on against the odds.

    Unless Labour can recover to 28% plus on a consistent basis, then there is a real danger that they will see a catastrophic fall in their seats. If Cons sustain a position over 40, then a large number of those seats will come their way – even if LDs do pick up twenty or so.

  14. @Eric

    I partially agree; Osborne has not announced much in the way of fiscal policy. But why give, as Heath did, “a hostage to fortune”? Thatcher didn’t and she seemed to do quite a lot.

    People are going to suffer in the next 5-10 years, simply to pay off the horrendous debt; people will fight against the Tory plans, and situations will change, both of which might render specific plans meaningless. So why announce tactics to the Opposition when few read manifestos anyway and all they’ll hear about your specific plans are through the lens of Opposition attacks?

  15. I have in the past bitched about people not staying on topic, but i must be hypocritical and counter Erics repetition of one of the most irritating talking points emanating from the euro-federals. The Tories new grouping is no more right wing or extreme than the EPP. Yes there are some dubious characters in it, and yes it is uncomfortable seeing them cosying up to Polish homophobes. But the the EPP had just as many cranks and unpleasants (including italys modern fascist party). So why is the EPP the moderate option and the new grouping the extremist one? This of course all comes from the mindset that euro-federalism is the sensible and moderate position and to oppose such must make you an extremist, regardless of what position you might take on any other issue.

    With regards to the (slightly desperate) hope that people will credit the govt with any economic recovery thus producing an upturn in their numbers, the Com Res poll posted here on the 10th suggests that this probably isnt the case. Look how the Tories polling didnt shift a bit after the recession of the early 90s ended.

  16. Stuart, Calm Down Dear its only a poll !

    Before you shout at others read what you wrote yourself which was “as soon as the tories hit 42% again” (note you never mentioned the word average)

    To which my reply was “They have hit 42% see YouGov ” (no mention of the word average)

  17. Stuart / Wayne.

    As they say stateside – It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

    Returning Officers cast as Divas ?

    Polls are the mood music between individual arias. We have now had the overture (County & Euro-elections), but there are still several acts to go before the grand finale. Will this be grand tragedy, high comedy, Wagnerian mythology, or, most likely, a bitter tragicomedy where the main protagonists loquace endlessly on their competing passion, chivalry and ardour, while the leading lady bleeds to death before them.

  18. Paul H-J

    Lol, indeed

  19. Paul H-J

    An informative and detailed reply. Many thanks.

  20. Eric

    You are-whatever others may say -perfectly entitled to hope that the economic news will improve sufficiently over the next 9 months to bring about some sort of revival in Labour’s fortunes.
    I would just point out however that the timescale is even tighter than you seem to think.That’s because of the way the figures are collected and announced. Thus any revival in QTR 2 of next year will not become known before the expected date of the election on May 6th.
    You are therefore pinning your hopes on positive growth and unemployment figures for QTR 1 and as we are already part way through QTR 3 of this year that is a very big ask. Even if we take the most optimistic forecasts for next year at face value-say 1% growth-it is evident that very little if any of that growth will come in the first quarter.
    Having said that if I were in your shoes I would be saying the same thing as you ……but if I had a leader who appears so completely unable to tell the truth or face reality whether it be over the public debt or army helicopters then I might give way to despair!! Without a change in leadership I cannot see how Labour’s fortunes can revive regardless of the economic news.

  21. I’m curious that there appears to be a conspiracy of silence about polling for the Norwich North bye-election. Apart from a poll at the start of the campaign there has been nothing. Unusual for a bye-election seen as a key determinant in Brown’s survival – I’m sure there was more activity are the Crewe and Nantwich bye-election last summer.

  22. @Leslie

    It really is surprising; given that the official silly season has begun, you’d think that these 2 tasty morsels would save political editors from scraping the barrel for the next 1-2 weeks.

  23. At the end of the day even if the Tories get 40% of the vote that will still leave 60% of voters being agaisnt the Tories with about 50% coming from libdem and labour voters. The real question is not whether Labour will recover, im a Labour supporter and i am not convinced they will win but the real question is make or break time for the lib dems and labour voters.

    Should Labour poll a number of votes close to a lib dems votes then that will leave many lib dem or labour voters who will be so unhappy with the Tories getting in power who should they vote for next time lib or lab.

    Honestly, its not the 2009 election that will make history but the 2014 one that will because it could see the end of labour or the lib dems are a significant party because they will have to decide who they want to vote for. Could some labour voters switch their vote to the libdems or libdems to labour. This is going to be history in the making.

  24. As I’ve said before (I’m fairly sure) I doubt the weedy wobbly recovery that is expected late this year or early next is going to help Labour in time and anywhere near enough to get back to a winning position, or even largest party in parliament. It is because people are just fed up with gordon brown and want someone else to take over – this is natural after 13 years in power.

    The recession might be over in time for the next GE, but then there’s the clearing up afterwards, and I doubt the debt mountain will be gone by then.

  25. Could i just firm up my sense of how Norwhich is turning out?

    I see the votes falling neatly into 3 groups –
    The big 2, Tories/Libdems 25-30% each
    The small 3, Labour/UKIP/Green 5-10%
    The tiny 7, all the rest, 0-5%

    The winner often gains a temporary boost in the polls, will that happen after Norwich?

  26. “A week is a long time in politics”, but unless something very unexpected happens there will probably be little shift in public opinions until after the Summer holidays.

    I suspect one reason there are fewer polls now, including polls for specific events like byelections, is that the newspapers are, like so many of us, short of money to commission the pollsters.

    Paul H-J, returning officers are losing their brief moments of glory because the TV is no longer showing late night byelection programmes. Very few people were watching broing conversations as they waited for the result, and the internet does it better anyway. You can play computer games or whatever and wait for the popup on your screen. Also, as in Norwich North, results are increasingly being declared on Friday morning. This is very deplorable – again this has been discussed on the page for Norwich North – for reasons of electoral security. Recent history in Zimbabwe demonstrates that ballot boxes must be taken from the polling station to the counting hall immediately the poll closes, and then counted equally immediately in the presence of the candidates and their representatives.

  27. Just had a look at the UKPR Average and something appears to have gone wrong with the page. The weightings have gone off the scale and it’s including polls from 2007.

  28. @Andy – why stop there mate – if only 40% vote tory and the rest must “hate” that, then what about the people who don’t even vote?

    My god we could have a representative elected by less than 10% of the population. Surely not, but then we have a labour government with actual support in the 5-10% levels already go figure. – and stop whinging about it – if you want to blame someone, blame the apathetic voters who don’t vote (and can’t come up with a better way).

    2014 will make no real difference except as you say labour and lib dems will swap places. It better reflects the country in terms of narative.

    Personally I believe you will see a 2 terms con government. After that I believe it will fluctuate a bit more than we have seen recently.

    Then of course will come the rain of death followed by alien encounters that will transport us all to a utopian existence (that should please the eglatarians)

    Finally the world will hit itself as it flies through an interdimensional portal into an alternate reality and all life (except us in Utopia) will be extinguished.

    “A week is a long time in politics!”

  29. Neil – on the subject of the new Tory grouping in Brussels.. Cameron has made a big mistake. Not only have they walked away to form a new group, they are not even in control of the group because they couldn’t hold it together that long.

    I am not a labour supporter, but the Tory policy in Europe is a farce.. As a result the UK now has fewer chairs and vice chairs of the powerful committees than the last time, fewer friends and less respect. I work in Brussels regularly and tellingly the professional lobbyists have already dismissed them as a sideshow – hardly a strong voice for a looser Europe.

    Apologies for being off topic

  30. @Alasdair Cameron

    Your criticism seems to stem from their having less patronage of the majority; less “respect”, fewer “friends”, fewer “chairs and vice-chairs”. Since the majority are Euro-federalist, that seems to boil down to “tow our line, or we shan’t be friends with you.”

    With friends like that, I’d rather have enemies.

    And as for chairs, who cares about a hand on the steering wheel when you want a foot on the brake?

  31. Alasdair – how the is Tory policy a farce? They want an EU that is a series of trade agreements and open borders, not the law making political body the EU is becoming. As no Euro-group existed that persued this goal they had to make a new group. Yes, of course it is small now but time will tell whether there is support for this group among the people of Europe (I expect a number of parties campaigning in 2014 on the grounds that they would join the ECR if they get in). The previous grouping offered a binary choice, pro-federal or anti-EU. The ECR are offers a third choice, pro-EU anti-Federal. You might not agree with their views but to say their policy is a farce is completely incorrect.

    Back to the by-election though, did anyone see the press conference where Obama Beach said that he “hopes voters in Norwich and Glasgow by-elections will recognise which party has the best policies for the recession”. What does he do if Labour collapses in Norwich tomorrow after having said that?

  32. I think the new EFPgrouping is the 3rd largest and “holds the balance of power”. Not such a bad place to be in a PR system!

    As for Norwich North – the spread betting has a 94% chance of a C win, the Labour candidate is a Lambeth Councillor who apparently now has swine flu.

  33. @ Plumbus

    It’s ludicrous to suggest Labour will poll 5-10% in the Norwich by-election. The poll for the News of the World showed them losing 15% from the last election, but the Tories just picking up 1%, the Lib Dems down 1% and the Greens making the major gains up 11%.

    My guess is the result will be:

    CON 34%
    LAB 29%
    Green 14%
    LD 12%
    UKIP 4%

    However, I think I could still be much tighter, and perhaps if the Local Labour Party can get out their core vote, complacent local Tories vote UKIP and if the greens massively underperform, there could be a surprise Labour upset:

    LAB 32%
    CON 31%
    LD 16%
    Green 7%
    UKIP 7%

    However, the latter relies on lots of ‘ifs’ and the former is more likely, but Labour polling that low Plumbus! pah!

  34. Ashley

    Dont want to rain on your parade matey but local private polling puts labour on just 8%, imagine that.
    Think you’ll find they will come 3rd behind the Tories and Libs, sorry

  35. Further to my earlier posting regarding the Mandelsonian master plan, the Guardian has a fascinating similar scenario that doesn’t even require the law to be changed.

    If PM didn’t already have plans to grab the premiership, I’ll bet he does after reading this.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/05/mandelson-brown-labour-leadership

  36. My first post!

    To what extent do you think there will be a shy Labour voter effect? 8% share would obviously be unthinkable but I agree Labour are battling to stay second.

    Btw on the new EU grouping all the groupings contain wacko’s – the EU parliament is practically a funny farm. It’s a disgrace there has been no anti-fedralist grouping before this.

    There first post and I’ve already betrayed my politics.

  37. …hmm ‘matey’ how very patronising.
    I’m quite ready to be terribly wrong, I’m no expert pollster.
    What private polling is this then?

  38. Betrayed my politics?

    Sorry.

    Revealed my politics.

    Off to a good start….

  39. Its laughable to complain that the Tories could win with “just” 40% when the present Govt won with only 36% on what will probably have been a much lower turnout.

  40. paul jh,

    i think blead to death is a bit harsh more like death from a thounsand cuts

    with the leading lady being dave camoron and the villian gordon brown and the normal unstated star of the show nick cleag puting in the performance of his life to his part justice.

    the only problem in this performance is the louad mouth actors from scotland who always want to take the show to there thearter only

    but other than that the villan will die a long and painfull death and our hero camoron will prevail victor at the end of a long and hard bloody war.

  41. Stuart my dear fellow, you are not meant to take my allegorical imagery seriously – still less literally.. It is intended to be thought provoking – and light-hearted.

    I am afraid that the entertainment will be curtailed till late August as I about to depart on holiday – as far away from the city as I can manage while staying in England – and a long way from any computer connections.

    Good luck to all those who risked their wallets in Norwich. Hopefully I shall be able to catch the result on the radio as the children lead me along Hadrian’s wall on Friday.

    Anthony, I trust that your flu is under control and you are on the road to recovery.

  42. any predictions on the bnp vote , they newbies here?

    see who can guess right .

  43. On the EU again (sorry, but it interesting)… it is not the anti-federalist policy of the Tories which is the problem but the way they have handled it and their new group… furthermore they have failed to realise that even if they withdrew from the EU they would need to abide by the majority of its rules in order to trade (like Norway and Iceland), therefore they should at least have a short term interest in how these rules are formed.. the idea of a federal Europe is a long way off for now anyway, thanks to the people of Europe!

    On the BNP, I will guess 4%-5%

  44. Alasdair Cameron

    Ignoring our disagreement about the formation of the ECR, I don’t quite see your point about having an interest in how trading laws are formed, assuming we pull out of the EU. As you say, Iceland and Norway trade with the EU and they have absolutely no say in how the laws are formed.

    It is not necessary to be on the inside in order to affect changes in the laws. If we don’t like them then we just don’t trade with the EU. That’s how markets work. Unless both sides are happy with the conditions of the trade then it won’t happen. The EU will want our trade (look at the number of German and French cars on our roads) which puts us in a good position to negotiate terms.

    It’s going to be a nice long wait for these by-election results. They only start counting in the morning.

  45. Marta Andreason, the former Brussels whistle blower sacked by Lord Kinnock, has been blocked from taking a senior position at the European Parliament by MEPs fearful of” future’scandal’.

    Mrs Andreasen was blocked by Christian Democrat and Socialist MEPs from becoming vice-chairman of the European Parliament’s budgetary committee on Monday.

    The centre-Right European People’s Party and the Socialists broke parliamentary convention on the allocation of committee posts by demanding a vote by secret ballot to block Mrs Andreasen, who was elected as a Ukip MEP for South East England last month.

    “They know that I know too much. I know where the bodies are buried and that’s why they don’t want me,” said Mrs Andreasen.

    Chris Davies, a Liberal Democrat, attacked the “shameful decision” to hold a secret ballot so the MEPs could not be “held accountable for their actions”.

    “The message it sends to the public is that anyone who speaks out against malpractice in Europe risks being excluded from office,” he said.

  46. Has anyone looked at the recent post on politicalbetting.com about a detailed electoral predictor?

    Admittedly, I’m a Tory, so I’m sure there’s a bias in me towards any predictor that declares a landslide Tory victory, but this stands out because, to my eye, the LibDems seat numbers are more tied historically to Con loss rather than their own vote share, and this model causes a loss in LibDem seats despite an increase in vote share, the opposite of 1997.

  47. IF Britain pulled out of the EU and decided not to abide by all their petty trading rules, does anybody honestly think the EU would stop trading with us? Those who do are bonkers. If Britain left the EU then it would at a stroke be deprived of the circa £15bn per annum which we contribute to them – it would be the EU which would start to rely on the UK financially – not vice versa.

  48. YouGov have now published the detailed datasheets from the poll they conducted for the Fabian Society 1-3 July 2009:

    (change +/- from the previous YouGov/The People poll 24-26 June)

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 26% (+2)
    LD 19% (+2)

    http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Fabian_03-Jul-2009.pdf

  49. hi Neil, no it is not that they will stop trading with us, it simply gets a little harder to access the internal market. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland all have to abide by the vast majority of the EU’s rules anyway, and automatically transcribe EU Directives into national law to ensure compliance. Anyone who thinks we can survive by not trading with the EU is bonkers…

    But anyway, my point is more than the Tories have handled their shift in Europe very badly and lost most of what influence they had. It won’t affect them in the UK though. I personally have very divided opinions on further European integration…

    At the risk of going even further off topic, which of the EU’s trading rules are petty? I know which ones I think are but am curious to hear more.

  50. Scratch that. Does anyone know if there will be coverage of the by-election anywhere tonight?

1 2