MORI monthly political monitor
Posted on July 21st, 2009 by Anthony Wells
Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been published and has figures of CON 40%(+2), LAB 24%(+3), LDEM 18%(-1). I don’t have the figures for “others”, but looking at the changes from their last poll we can assume that, like all the other recent polls, they are in decline.
In this case, it’s Labour who have gained the most, but together with the other recent polls that have shown the Lib Dems or Conservatives with the largest increase I think we can reasonably conclude that the decline in support for minor parties has not disproportionately benefited any of the big three.
Filed under: MORI, Voting Intention
I think these recent polls have answered some of the question marks over whether the Tories can regain the ground lost over expenses. It looks pretty comfortable for them and adds to the overall impression that enough people have made up their minds that a change of government is required. So long as they stay over 40% their position will be bomb proof, whatever recovery Labour can pull off, if any.
labour are coming back up to be fair as predicted but the tories are also gaining back ground, but as soon as the tories hit 42% again the labour party may start to fall back to 22-23% the lib dems are up slightly as well as the others fall away but we are seeing the return to normal polling this month just think what the torie lead could be after the summer
Stuart,
They have hit 42% see YouGov earlier this week and ICM last week 41% and You Gov end June 40%
wayne.
some time i wonder about you, they are not averageing 42% yet once they are there then its all over in my eyes. the current average for this month is 39.8% for the conservatives, 25% for labour and 19.6% for the ib dems which leaves the others on 15.6%. on those figuers the tories would win a majority of 76 seats in the new house of parliment.
As a new contributor, I wondered if the author or any commentators had considered the implication of the projected 23% Labour share in the County Council elections? It would seem that if their overall national share is about 25%, then their vote share in their normal strongholds must be at about 30%. This might indicate that they have lost their stronghold (high population, urban) regions. If so, Labour’s return in seats could be stunningly low? Does anyone have any ideas on whether this makes sense?
WMA remains 39:25:19 really nothing is changing. Odd but seemingly true.
‘a week is a long time in politics’ – and the GE is 9 months away. All rests on whether or not the economic recovery is sustained and reverses unemployment before the GE. If so then the focus will be on Osborne’s lack of credible fiscal policies – and that could be their undoing. Odd though that UKIP are in decline, perhaps Cameron’s decision to join a an extreme right wing grouping in the EU will pay off, without too many desertions from his sensible wing.
If you take the more sensible figures that Mori give for those 6-10 certain to vote the Conservatives are below 40% The figures are Con 38 Lab 24 LD 19 Others 20 .
The detailed data shows very good LibDem figures . comparing how people voted in 2005 to now . They lose 8 voters to Con 8 to Labour and 13 to others but gain 8 from Con and 29 from Labour . The lack of past vote weighting as used by ICM Comres and Populus knocks around 2% from the final headline figures .
Well it’s good to see the others vote declining as expected, with votes generally coming back to three main parties reasonably evenly. If the ratio of CON:LAB:LD we have had recently were repeated on around 10% ‘others’ vote (not an unreasonable assumption as the ratio has remained fairly static throughout the course of the euros, with just the others vote affecting the size of the figures) we’d be looking at 43:27:21 and a Conservative majority of around 100.
As each of the established parties has a minimum core vote the approximate 8% swing to the Tories will actually be much greater in many marginals so therefore a uniform swing producing a maj of 100 will actually produce a maj of 120-125 similarly 50-70 =70-85
@Eric, Glad to see we are sticking to being none partisan…..
It is unlikely in any case that unemployment will recover before the GE. In all previous “downturns” unemployment always trails behind.
With regards to Osbornes lack of credible fiscal policies????? Which party will actually make real changes to the triumverate at the center of the current debacle? Labour Didn’t and never will (they have no more influence left having sold it all to bankers during the “boom” years).
I would also draw your attention to current fiscal policy of Labour – spend spend spend (today £20 biwwion (sorry Gordon) pounds of Tax revenue was lost due to lower reciepts. Timebomb anyone
and finally with regard to Cameron joining a so called right wing grouping, well expect the grouping to change over time as more none euro empire / tony blair for presidentites join them. We are all for cooperation in Europe, but not sovereignty.
Keir
Not to mention the Treasury having their accounts qualified by the NAO, for only the second time in history (for those keeping score, the other time was 99-00). No spending review, accounts not signed off – what more ammunition do the Tories need to nail Labour?
Anyway, in the spirit of non-partisanship, does anyone find it highly concerning that the DWP had their accounts qualified for the 20th consecutive year?
Tim Crowther,
By way of clarification, the 23% PROJECTED Lab share of the vote at the County Councils was just that. A projection of what their share would have been nationally if all parts of the country had voted. In other words, adjustment had already been made in those figures to compensate for the fact that the elections took place in predominantly Con (or LD) shire counties. (Otherwise how did Lab manage to come away with so few seats if they had actually polled 23% in those districts ?)
It is difficult to tell with any confidence from the County Council results alone how Lab are performing in the metropolitan districts since only a few areas with similar profile had elections. The nearest to such areas that voted were the (former) mill-towns north of Manchester – where Lab lost the County on a big swing.
However, leaving aside that Lab did badly in all four counties they were defending (and even worse in many where they have long since lost control), we do have the evidence from the Euro elections on the same day.
Even if one adjusts the euro figures upwards to compensate for the large “others” vote, there is no precedent for the appaling results Labour saw. It is bad enough that they fell into third place with well below 20% of the votes cast. But the fact is that Labour only topped the poll in one region (North East) and here their majority over Con was slashed from 15% in 2004 to just 5%. Even in this, their best region, they failed to reach 25% (actual result was 24.98%)
So, even adjusting for others (add 20-25% of whatever each main party scored in each region for a truer picture) Labour are only just scraping 30% in their core areas.
However, in many of these urban seats, Lab could well see their opposition divided (Con / LD / SNP-Plaid / BNP / Green / UKIP etc) and so could hang onto a number of seats even with a vote share under 35% (or 30% in Scotland / Wales).
The real danger for Labour is if a real “anyone but Lab” mood takes hold and voters coalesce around a single opponent. This happened to Tories in 1997 which led to so many LD gains in areas where Lab could not win. LDs will be hoping that next time they will be that focal point in many urban seats, but the end result may well be more results like that seen in Watford in 2005 where Lab hang on against the odds.
Unless Labour can recover to 28% plus on a consistent basis, then there is a real danger that they will see a catastrophic fall in their seats. If Cons sustain a position over 40, then a large number of those seats will come their way – even if LDs do pick up twenty or so.
@Eric
I partially agree; Osborne has not announced much in the way of fiscal policy. But why give, as Heath did, “a hostage to fortune”? Thatcher didn’t and she seemed to do quite a lot.
People are going to suffer in the next 5-10 years, simply to pay off the horrendous debt; people will fight against the Tory plans, and situations will change, both of which might render specific plans meaningless. So why announce tactics to the Opposition when few read manifestos anyway and all they’ll hear about your specific plans are through the lens of Opposition attacks?
I have in the past bitched about people not staying on topic, but i must be hypocritical and counter Erics repetition of one of the most irritating talking points emanating from the euro-federals. The Tories new grouping is no more right wing or extreme than the EPP. Yes there are some dubious characters in it, and yes it is uncomfortable seeing them cosying up to Polish homophobes. But the the EPP had just as many cranks and unpleasants (including italys modern fascist party). So why is the EPP the moderate option and the new grouping the extremist one? This of course all comes from the mindset that euro-federalism is the sensible and moderate position and to oppose such must make you an extremist, regardless of what position you might take on any other issue.
With regards to the (slightly desperate) hope that people will credit the govt with any economic recovery thus producing an upturn in their numbers, the Com Res poll posted here on the 10th suggests that this probably isnt the case. Look how the Tories polling didnt shift a bit after the recession of the early 90s ended.
Stuart, Calm Down Dear its only a poll !
Before you shout at others read what you wrote yourself which was “as soon as the tories hit 42% again” (note you never mentioned the word average)
To which my reply was “They have hit 42% see YouGov ” (no mention of the word average)
Stuart / Wayne.
As they say stateside – It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.
Returning Officers cast as Divas ?
Polls are the mood music between individual arias. We have now had the overture (County & Euro-elections), but there are still several acts to go before the grand finale. Will this be grand tragedy, high comedy, Wagnerian mythology, or, most likely, a bitter tragicomedy where the main protagonists loquace endlessly on their competing passion, chivalry and ardour, while the leading lady bleeds to death before them.
Paul H-J
Lol, indeed
Paul H-J
An informative and detailed reply. Many thanks.
Eric
You are-whatever others may say -perfectly entitled to hope that the economic news will improve sufficiently over the next 9 months to bring about some sort of revival in Labour’s fortunes.
I would just point out however that the timescale is even tighter than you seem to think.That’s because of the way the figures are collected and announced. Thus any revival in QTR 2 of next year will not become known before the expected date of the election on May 6th.
You are therefore pinning your hopes on positive growth and unemployment figures for QTR 1 and as we are already part way through QTR 3 of this year that is a very big ask. Even if we take the most optimistic forecasts for next year at face value-say 1% growth-it is evident that very little if any of that growth will come in the first quarter.
Having said that if I were in your shoes I would be saying the same thing as you ……but if I had a leader who appears so completely unable to tell the truth or face reality whether it be over the public debt or army helicopters then I might give way to despair!! Without a change in leadership I cannot see how Labour’s fortunes can revive regardless of the economic news.
I’m curious that there appears to be a conspiracy of silence about polling for the Norwich North bye-election. Apart from a poll at the start of the campaign there has been nothing. Unusual for a bye-election seen as a key determinant in Brown’s survival – I’m sure there was more activity are the Crewe and Nantwich bye-election last summer.
@Leslie
It really is surprising; given that the official silly season has begun, you’d think that these 2 tasty morsels would save political editors from scraping the barrel for the next 1-2 weeks.
At the end of the day even if the Tories get 40% of the vote that will still leave 60% of voters being agaisnt the Tories with about 50% coming from libdem and labour voters. The real question is not whether Labour will recover, im a Labour supporter and i am not convinced they will win but the real question is make or break time for the lib dems and labour voters.
Should Labour poll a number of votes close to a lib dems votes then that will leave many lib dem or labour voters who will be so unhappy with the Tories getting in power who should they vote for next time lib or lab.
Honestly, its not the 2009 election that will make history but the 2014 one that will because it could see the end of labour or the lib dems are a significant party because they will have to decide who they want to vote for. Could some labour voters switch their vote to the libdems or libdems to labour. This is going to be history in the making.
As I’ve said before (I’m fairly sure) I doubt the weedy wobbly recovery that is expected late this year or early next is going to help Labour in time and anywhere near enough to get back to a winning position, or even largest party in parliament. It is because people are just fed up with gordon brown and want someone else to take over – this is natural after 13 years in power.
The recession might be over in time for the next GE, but then there’s the clearing up afterwards, and I doubt the debt mountain will be gone by then.
Could i just firm up my sense of how Norwhich is turning out?
I see the votes falling neatly into 3 groups -
The big 2, Tories/Libdems 25-30% each
The small 3, Labour/UKIP/Green 5-10%
The tiny 7, all the rest, 0-5%
The winner often gains a temporary boost in the polls, will that happen after Norwich?
“A week is a long time in politics”, but unless something very unexpected happens there will probably be little shift in public opinions until after the Summer holidays.
I suspect one reason there are fewer polls now, including polls for specific events like byelections, is that the newspapers are, like so many of us, short of money to commission the pollsters.
Paul H-J, returning officers are losing their brief moments of glory because the TV is no longer showing late night byelection programmes. Very few people were watching broing conversations as they waited for the result, and the internet does it better anyway. You can play computer games or whatever and wait for the popup on your screen. Also, as in Norwich North, results are increasingly being declared on Friday morning. This is very deplorable – again this has been discussed on the page for Norwich North – for reasons of electoral security. Recent history in Zimbabwe demonstrates that ballot boxes must be taken from the polling station to the counting hall immediately the poll closes, and then counted equally immediately in the presence of the candidates and their representatives.
Just had a look at the UKPR Average and something appears to have gone wrong with the page. The weightings have gone off the scale and it’s including polls from 2007.
@Andy – why stop there mate – if only 40% vote tory and the rest must “hate” that, then what about the people who don’t even vote?
My god we could have a representative elected by less than 10% of the population. Surely not, but then we have a labour government with actual support in the 5-10% levels already go figure. – and stop whinging about it – if you want to blame someone, blame the apathetic voters who don’t vote (and can’t come up with a better way).
2014 will make no real difference except as you say labour and lib dems will swap places. It better reflects the country in terms of narative.
Personally I believe you will see a 2 terms con government. After that I believe it will fluctuate a bit more than we have seen recently.
Then of course will come the rain of death followed by alien encounters that will transport us all to a utopian existence (that should please the eglatarians)
Finally the world will hit itself as it flies through an interdimensional portal into an alternate reality and all life (except us in Utopia) will be extinguished.
“A week is a long time in politics!”
Neil – on the subject of the new Tory grouping in Brussels.. Cameron has made a big mistake. Not only have they walked away to form a new group, they are not even in control of the group because they couldn’t hold it together that long.
I am not a labour supporter, but the Tory policy in Europe is a farce.. As a result the UK now has fewer chairs and vice chairs of the powerful committees than the last time, fewer friends and less respect. I work in Brussels regularly and tellingly the professional lobbyists have already dismissed them as a sideshow – hardly a strong voice for a looser Europe.
Apologies for being off topic
@Alasdair Cameron
Your criticism seems to stem from their having less patronage of the majority; less “respect”, fewer “friends”, fewer “chairs and vice-chairs”. Since the majority are Euro-federalist, that seems to boil down to “tow our line, or we shan’t be friends with you.”
With friends like that, I’d rather have enemies.
And as for chairs, who cares about a hand on the steering wheel when you want a foot on the brake?
Alasdair – how the is Tory policy a farce? They want an EU that is a series of trade agreements and open borders, not the law making political body the EU is becoming. As no Euro-group existed that persued this goal they had to make a new group. Yes, of course it is small now but time will tell whether there is support for this group among the people of Europe (I expect a number of parties campaigning in 2014 on the grounds that they would join the ECR if they get in). The previous grouping offered a binary choice, pro-federal or anti-EU. The ECR are offers a third choice, pro-EU anti-Federal. You might not agree with their views but to say their policy is a farce is completely incorrect.
Back to the by-election though, did anyone see the press conference where Obama Beach said that he “hopes voters in Norwich and Glasgow by-elections will recognise which party has the best policies for the recession”. What does he do if Labour collapses in Norwich tomorrow after having said that?
I think the new EFPgrouping is the 3rd largest and “holds the balance of power”. Not such a bad place to be in a PR system!
As for Norwich North – the spread betting has a 94% chance of a C win, the Labour candidate is a Lambeth Councillor who apparently now has swine flu.
@ Plumbus
It’s ludicrous to suggest Labour will poll 5-10% in the Norwich by-election. The poll for the News of the World showed them losing 15% from the last election, but the Tories just picking up 1%, the Lib Dems down 1% and the Greens making the major gains up 11%.
My guess is the result will be:
CON 34%
LAB 29%
Green 14%
LD 12%
UKIP 4%
However, I think I could still be much tighter, and perhaps if the Local Labour Party can get out their core vote, complacent local Tories vote UKIP and if the greens massively underperform, there could be a surprise Labour upset:
LAB 32%
CON 31%
LD 16%
Green 7%
UKIP 7%
However, the latter relies on lots of ‘ifs’ and the former is more likely, but Labour polling that low Plumbus! pah!
Ashley
Dont want to rain on your parade matey but local private polling puts labour on just 8%, imagine that.
Think you’ll find they will come 3rd behind the Tories and Libs, sorry
Further to my earlier posting regarding the Mandelsonian master plan, the Guardian has a fascinating similar scenario that doesn’t even require the law to be changed.
If PM didn’t already have plans to grab the premiership, I’ll bet he does after reading this.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/05/mandelson-brown-labour-leadership
My first post!
To what extent do you think there will be a shy Labour voter effect? 8% share would obviously be unthinkable but I agree Labour are battling to stay second.
Btw on the new EU grouping all the groupings contain wacko’s – the EU parliament is practically a funny farm. It’s a disgrace there has been no anti-fedralist grouping before this.
There first post and I’ve already betrayed my politics.
…hmm ‘matey’ how very patronising.
I’m quite ready to be terribly wrong, I’m no expert pollster.
What private polling is this then?
Betrayed my politics?
Sorry.
Revealed my politics.
Off to a good start….
Its laughable to complain that the Tories could win with “just” 40% when the present Govt won with only 36% on what will probably have been a much lower turnout.
paul jh,
i think blead to death is a bit harsh more like death from a thounsand cuts
with the leading lady being dave camoron and the villian gordon brown and the normal unstated star of the show nick cleag puting in the performance of his life to his part justice.
the only problem in this performance is the louad mouth actors from scotland who always want to take the show to there thearter only
but other than that the villan will die a long and painfull death and our hero camoron will prevail victor at the end of a long and hard bloody war.
Stuart my dear fellow, you are not meant to take my allegorical imagery seriously – still less literally.. It is intended to be thought provoking – and light-hearted.
I am afraid that the entertainment will be curtailed till late August as I about to depart on holiday – as far away from the city as I can manage while staying in England – and a long way from any computer connections.
Good luck to all those who risked their wallets in Norwich. Hopefully I shall be able to catch the result on the radio as the children lead me along Hadrian’s wall on Friday.
Anthony, I trust that your flu is under control and you are on the road to recovery.
any predictions on the bnp vote , they newbies here?
see who can guess right .
On the EU again (sorry, but it interesting)… it is not the anti-federalist policy of the Tories which is the problem but the way they have handled it and their new group… furthermore they have failed to realise that even if they withdrew from the EU they would need to abide by the majority of its rules in order to trade (like Norway and Iceland), therefore they should at least have a short term interest in how these rules are formed.. the idea of a federal Europe is a long way off for now anyway, thanks to the people of Europe!
On the BNP, I will guess 4%-5%
Alasdair Cameron
Ignoring our disagreement about the formation of the ECR, I don’t quite see your point about having an interest in how trading laws are formed, assuming we pull out of the EU. As you say, Iceland and Norway trade with the EU and they have absolutely no say in how the laws are formed.
It is not necessary to be on the inside in order to affect changes in the laws. If we don’t like them then we just don’t trade with the EU. That’s how markets work. Unless both sides are happy with the conditions of the trade then it won’t happen. The EU will want our trade (look at the number of German and French cars on our roads) which puts us in a good position to negotiate terms.
It’s going to be a nice long wait for these by-election results. They only start counting in the morning.
Marta Andreason, the former Brussels whistle blower sacked by Lord Kinnock, has been blocked from taking a senior position at the European Parliament by MEPs fearful of” future’scandal’.
Mrs Andreasen was blocked by Christian Democrat and Socialist MEPs from becoming vice-chairman of the European Parliament’s budgetary committee on Monday.
The centre-Right European People’s Party and the Socialists broke parliamentary convention on the allocation of committee posts by demanding a vote by secret ballot to block Mrs Andreasen, who was elected as a Ukip MEP for South East England last month.
“They know that I know too much. I know where the bodies are buried and that’s why they don’t want me,” said Mrs Andreasen.
Chris Davies, a Liberal Democrat, attacked the “shameful decision” to hold a secret ballot so the MEPs could not be “held accountable for their actions”.
“The message it sends to the public is that anyone who speaks out against malpractice in Europe risks being excluded from office,” he said.
Has anyone looked at the recent post on politicalbetting.com about a detailed electoral predictor?
Admittedly, I’m a Tory, so I’m sure there’s a bias in me towards any predictor that declares a landslide Tory victory, but this stands out because, to my eye, the LibDems seat numbers are more tied historically to Con loss rather than their own vote share, and this model causes a loss in LibDem seats despite an increase in vote share, the opposite of 1997.
IF Britain pulled out of the EU and decided not to abide by all their petty trading rules, does anybody honestly think the EU would stop trading with us? Those who do are bonkers. If Britain left the EU then it would at a stroke be deprived of the circa £15bn per annum which we contribute to them – it would be the EU which would start to rely on the UK financially – not vice versa.
YouGov have now published the detailed datasheets from the poll they conducted for the Fabian Society 1-3 July 2009:
(change +/- from the previous YouGov/The People poll 24-26 June)
Con 39% (-1)
Lab 26% (+2)
LD 19% (+2)
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Fabian_03-Jul-2009.pdf
hi Neil, no it is not that they will stop trading with us, it simply gets a little harder to access the internal market. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland all have to abide by the vast majority of the EU’s rules anyway, and automatically transcribe EU Directives into national law to ensure compliance. Anyone who thinks we can survive by not trading with the EU is bonkers…
But anyway, my point is more than the Tories have handled their shift in Europe very badly and lost most of what influence they had. It won’t affect them in the UK though. I personally have very divided opinions on further European integration…
At the risk of going even further off topic, which of the EU’s trading rules are petty? I know which ones I think are but am curious to hear more.
Scratch that. Does anyone know if there will be coverage of the by-election anywhere tonight?
@Alasdair Cameron
“failed to realise that even if they withdrew from the EU they would need to abide by the majority of its rules in order to trade”
They’ve failed to realise this? Since Heath knew it back in 1974 and I knew it before I could vote, I’d be surprised if Cameron didn’t. In any case, the ECR does not propose withdrawal, the ID group does.
“the idea of a federal Europe is a long way off for now anyway, thanks to the people of Europe! ”
Really? This is a parliament that thinks that 3 “no”s (France, the Netherlands, Ireland) means “please ask me again, I was merely being coy”. It’s like watching a grotesque re-enactment of Mr Collins from Pride and Prejudice, only this time, you’re not sure the heroine’s going to win.
Richard – fair point re ECR not wanting to leave EU. I was getting confused by the anti-EU Conservatives on this blog…
(ironic use of smiley to diffuse bad feelings)
@Alasdair Cameron
Unlikely to be much (if any) coverage of Norwich North tonight. They don’t start counting till tomorrow
@Alasdair
doesn’t really work, what works is when people argue from a point of fact and not a point of ignorance. There are not many people who are anti Europe, just anti current and future integration into the legal framework. Almost all tories see the benefits of Europe as a trading partner, we just don’t want them telling us what shape our carrots need to be. ok
Alasdair,
Apprently the Norwich North count will take place tomorrow morning with the result being declared about lunchtime.
Watch either the BBC News Channel or Sky News for coverage.
The several posts on attitudes to the EU seem to me at least to miss a rather important point.
That is the EU budget. According to what I understand David Cameron to have said, part of our problems relate to too much being run from Europe and that there needs to be a transfer back of powers from the EU to National Governments. Personally, I agree with that. However I would have thought the only certain way of achieving that is to recognise that such a transfer will not be made willingly by those in Europe. In order to achieve that therefore it is absolutely essential there is a sustained reduction in successive budgets.
My knowledge of the respective powers of National and EU authorities is necessarily less than comprehensive but I understand that it is for National Governments to agree the size of the overall EU budget every 7 years or so. Furthermore that agreement is not subject to majority control and therefore each National Government has a veto. If my understanding is correct than the place to state that unequivocally is in relation to UK General Elections. Maybe I’m in a minority of one but my perception is that a very large number of people would support a 5% reduction in the EU budget in each of the next 7 year budget life, especially when the UK Government as well as individuals are currently and will for that same period at least, be forced to control quite severely their expenditures. In my many years in business we regularly planned on a 2½% efficiency gain each year so a real time cut of 2½% is surely the minimum that could and should be achieved.
Such an attitude would both silence those who think Cameron doesn’t have a practical EU policy irrespective of whether the Lisbon Treaty is fully ratified or not and I suggest it would also effectively spike the guns of many of UKIP’s most voluble supporters.
@Alasdair Cameron
Same to you –
– sorry for flaming you a bit…
Andy’s Election General Election Forecast: End July 2009
Being a professional forecaster by trade I thought it would be fun to develop a forecasting model for the next General Election using historical trends.
I have collated opinion poll data for the 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections (courtesy of this site) and am looking at the variance of the Conservative lead in the polls to their actual lead at the election and also the Lib Dem share of the vote compared to the actual result.
Every month from now until the election I will publish my forecast and then we can see how accurate it is come next May.
The following data is from the previous elections. For each year the first number is the variance of the Tory poll lead (or defecit) versus their actual result. A positive number means that they did better in the election than in the poll and vice versa.
The second figure is the difference between the LD result and their poll result – again a positive figure means they did better in the election than in the poll.
For each month I have taken the last 6 polls.
So the results for end July are as follows:
Base Data: 1992 +10.50/+1.30; 1997 +9.25/+2.22; 2001 +4.50/+3.57; 2005 -0.67/-1.40
Average: +2.93/+1.52
Note that the first figure is a weighted average (50% 2005, 30% 2001, 15% 1997 and 5% 1992)
Most recent 6 polls show a Tory lead averaging 14.17 points and a LD poll rating of 19.50%
My prediction for the GE is a Tory Lead of 17 points and an LD poll rating of 21%.
Assuming that the three main parties poll the same as in 2005 (90%) would give the following split between the main parties:
Conservative 43% : Labour 26% : Liberal Democrat 21%
Giving a Tory majority of 120 seats.
@David D – the concept is fine, except it’s not just fiscal policy that’s at fault. If all we were talking about was how much the EU spends on building projects, research and it’s own infrastructure etc then most people would be fine. however we are already in a place where the euopean courts are seen by many as the final court an no longer our own courts.
We must be placed back in control of our own laws and our own systems. Yes help the EU, but as a partner and not as a member state so long as eu nations keep pushing for federalisation.
The financial 5 difference you talk about would not be significant fast enough to make the changes that are neccessary now. It needs to be done within the next 2 parliments and not over the next 35 years.
Keir… I don’t know about carrots, buy I do know that the vast majority of these ‘EU says cucmbers must be x size’ are not actually true… (in the cucumbers case I think the EU Directive on trading standards was exactly the same as the existing UK legislation).
See
http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/communication/facts/index_en.htm
Someone is saying that there are a lot of postal votes in the Norwich election. Will that benefit labour?
It benefits whoever has been well organised at signing up their supporters for postal votes! There’s no hard and fast rule.
Andy in the Guardian is saying labour got 19.5%, coming second.
@Keir, @Alasdair
Part of the reason why EU regulations get so much flak is because of the over-pedantic way they are written. I have a good friend who works as a civil servant in the EU, and I’ve seen a few of these examples. Two cases the friend emailed to me were
… the carrot shall be considered a fruit …
… the snail shall be considered a fish …
In both cases the context (omitted) is relevant. The first was a regulation on jam. The Portuguese make a carrot jam and this was a clause, taken out of context, to shoehorn carrot jam into the regulation. The second was a regulation on shop hygiene, and was a way to provide standards for edible snails without starting from scratch.
A lot of the “idiocies” in the wording comes from bureaucrats trying to write a single regulation to cover 27 national practices that has to be translated into 23 (?) languages.
Conservatives: 13,591
Labour: 6,243
Lib Dems: 4,803
Majority: 7,300-odd
Wow! That is a spectacular result for the Tories. They have achieved a swing in the vote of 13,400.
What does that equate to in swing terms? And what would it mean if repeated in a GE?
More detail…
Conservative 13,591
Labour 6,243
Liberal Democrat 4,803
UK Independence 4,068
Green 3,350
Put an Honest… 953
British National 941
Independent 166
Monster Raving… 144
NOTA 59
Libertarian 36
Independent 23
Majority 7,348
Andrew Myers,
The swing from Labour to Conservative was 16.5%.
In a General Election that would reduce Labour to around 110 seats and give the Conservatives about 475 – a majority of circa 300!
That’s a 16.5% swing, mostly Labour loss to UKIP/Green/Others.
Tories went up 6.3%, UKIP 9.43%.
The question is: how many of UKIP can DC rely upon to vote Tory in the GE?
I suspect that it’ll be quite a lot, any other thoughts?
it’s a big swing but im sure going on the type of seat norwich north is it will be a baromitor of actual thinking exspect big torie leads in the polls over th next few weeks or at least an increese in there poll ratings
Boy did i get that wrong ! blush, squirm.
This was a really dull,bog-standard by-election-1st & 2nd trade places, 3rd is squeezed & a lot of voters have a laugh.
What does it say about the GE? Like all the other actual votes it suggests the Tories on the upper 30s, no landslide, Labour will be hammered & LDs a small improvement- the big shifts will come in 2014
Keir (not voting Labour)
Thanks but the timefarme between EU budgets is some 7 years so my proposal would mean a 5% reduction EACH and EVERY year for 7 years! That means starting in 2012/13 the entire budget would be reduced by 30% (on a compound basis to give the EU the benefit that compounding gives when it’s a reduction) over its life. That would actiually FORCE the EU to do less and in practice return responsibility for many things to National Government by the end of the budget period beginnig in 2012/13
I suggest that is pretty dramatic and within the two parliaments you suggest.
I am now wondering if the Opinion Polls that have the Conservatives on 40% or there about are they under-estimating Tory support.
It has been claimed for years that the Tory vote is actually underestimated in Opinion polls,anyone got any evidence of this? as if the Tories can take near 40% in a Labour Heartland the argument may have legs.
The Tory majority was larger than the entire Labour vote!
Terrible for the Lib-Dems also.
If you add the Labour vote to the Lib vote,you still don’t come anywhere near overtaking the Tory vote.
Greens nowhere!
So much for the farcical claim by some deluded LIb Dem supporters on this site that their party was closing the gap on the Tories in Norwich North. In fact they only just managed to cling on to third place from UKIP!
One of the reasons that so many people cannot take the Lib Dems seriously is precisely because they simply cannot stop talking up their chances whereas the more mature Labour and Tory supporters try to lower expectations and thus avoid ending up with egg on their faces.
All three major parties are clearly still suffering from the expenses scandal and the Euro election results but on the evidence of the opinion polls that is beginning to fade and with a 16.5% swing the Tories can be well satisfied with the result . For Labour it is nothing short of a nightmare.
Victory speech annoyed me, yet another load of bullshit about new politics (party of person giving speech) and old politics (other main party).
Broadly expected result, with the same theme as recent talks…Labour are losing, but Cons aren’t particularly winning….although of course, with FPTP they are winning.
I’m thinking more and more that either lab or libdems getting some relatively outside the box leader could change things a lot, as the cons are only winning by default. Doubt like the lib dems will though, and if lab do it’ll surely be someone mainstream and ’safe’. I see cons winning but with very low numbers actually voting for them, 2014 is gonna be an interesting one I think, if only I was 10 years older and had tens of millions to start my own party….
This certainly hasn’t pissed on any labour recovery hopes though, cons are claiming swing of 13000 voters but they only got 13000 votes, everyone sensible is betting on cons win but I wouldn’t want to put my mortgage on a minimum majority. That’s probably what will set things in stone really, it’s not bad enough for labour…..or rather not good enough for cons….for labour to actually get rid of brown easily. To stand a decent chance they need to panic, rather than thinking of minimising the loss and coming back in 2014/5 saying ‘told you not to vote for them’ after years of true prudence.
I’m blathering, I’ll stop.
@Nick”One of the reasons that so many people cannot take the Lib Dems seriously is precisely because they simply cannot stop talking up their chances whereas the more mature Labour and Tory supporters try to lower expectations and thus avoid ending up with egg on their faces.”
There are people like that supporting every party, just that when lib dems predict 5% more of the vote it seems a bigger mistake than when cons do. The idea that supporters of one party or another are inherently more/less mature is a little dodgy. I’ve got a previous comment about result in general awaiting moderation, guess I’ll have to remember not to swear on this site…
Also @Nick, I think it was us two who made the predictions for start of August, I can’t remember what exactly they were, but assuming cons get some sorta boost from this it’s looking more like you than me.
@ Rich
Yes you are right, the Tory vote has always been underestimated by opinion polls, notably beleive it or not in 1997.
You asked for some evidence; here it is:
1992 1997 2001 2005
Exit 8.92 5.33 1.67 3.43
Mar 11.00 12.67 2.33 6.17
Feb 6.17 7.17 3.50 5.58
Jan 6.75 8.50 1.83 4.98
Dec 8.58 12.33 1.83 4.50
Nov 9.00 9.67 2.67 3.83
Oct 8.50 10.00 3.83 2.89
Sept 7.83 12.00 -2.33 -1.13
Aug 9.83 10.67 -1.17 3.86
The numbers relate to the percentage points that the Tory vote was over or underestimated based on the average of the last 6 polls at the end of every month leading up to the last 4 elections.
A positive number means that the actual result was that many points better, so for example in the 1997 election the Tory share of the vote was 10.67 points better than in the last 6 polls leading up to end August 1996.
ANDREW MYERS.
Thanks very much for that info much appreciated.
No worries Rich
I actually made an error with the 2001 and 2005 data so here is the correct table.
1992 1997 2001 2005
Exit 8.92 5.33 4.50 1.67
Mar 11.00 12.67 8.50 2.33
Feb 6.17 7.17 8.17 3.50
Jan 6.75 8.50 8.17 1.83
Dec 8.58 12.33 4.33 1.83
Nov 9.00 9.67 2.00 2.67
Oct 8.50 10.00 -3.17 3.83
Sept 7.83 12.00 -7.17 -2.33
Aug 9.83 10.67 7.83 -1.17
Jul 10.50 9.25 4.50 -0.67
The only time when the Tory lead was overestimated was in the September 2000 polls – this was the time of the fuel strike.
Yup, terrible prediction from moi.
I was looking at the results from the by-election and obviosuly it wasn’t a GE and it cannot really be used as a basis for GE predictions. Normally I’d say that the result would be closer at a GE due to a higher turnout, however, in the next GE, whenever it comes, I think the turnout will be lower than the last and I think the smaller parties will retain some of their votes provoked by the expenses outrage and main party bickering, so therefore I think more similar results could be seen, with MPs winning seats with a much smaller majority in many areas, even some ’safe’ areas, therefore UKIP and the Greens in particular may see their overall vote massively rise but still fail to get MPs, perhaps this will increase pressure to reform the electoral system, another issue for the new PM to face?
There is according to the Tory Press Spokesman another poll out this weekend. They say it will show a double digit lead.
@ Andrew Myers
Wow, thanks very much! I’ve always heard claims like these, but I didn’t know that it extended beyond 1997, and had never done the spade-work…
Now the Norwich By-Election is over,a truly strange result it tumed out to be.
LAB+LIB+GREEN(the left wing of England)= the Conservative vote combined.
This however throws up 2 scenario’s one frightening for Labour,one terrifying for the Left Wing in England.
UKIP polled 10%,where did it come from?
1)Traditional Tory voters from 2005 switched? on the face of it bad news for the Tories, however on closer inspection if they lost votes to UKIP that voted Tory in 2005 Chloe Smith got more left-wing votes than she is being credited for.
2)Truly nightmare scenario for the left,UKIP votes did not come from Tory voters of 2005,they infact came from left wing voters of 2005.
Where did they come form?
In a Safe Labour seat,the right(Tory+UKIP only) got 50% of the vote,
Guys, guys, guys. It’s a by-election. These things happen. It is nice for DC to have maintained his momentum, but other than that it is a lot of heat and noise signifying nothing.
@Neil A
So true…
Yet can we infer anything on this for the accuracy of upcoming predictions?
Truly appalling result for Labour who only managed 18% of the vote.
I can’t remember the last time a sitting government in one of its own safe seats managed to poll this low in a by election.
Truly appalling result for Labour who only managed 18% of the vote.
I can’t remember the last time a sitting government in one of its own safe seats managed to poll this low in a by election.
“Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been published and has figures of CON 40%(+2), LAB 24%(+3), LDEM 18%(-1). I don’t have the figures for “others”, but looking at the changes from their last poll we can assume that, like all the other recent polls, they are in decline. ”
That’s not really a decline, that’s a consistent set of results!
Sounds like a bit of wishful thinking, if a 1% downward deviation is going to be presented as “chronic decline”!
@ Cynosarges
“A lot of the “idiocies” in the wording comes from bureaucrats trying to write a single regulation to cover 27 national practices that has to be translated into 23 (?) languages.”
Which is arguably why the whole concept of the EU is fundamentally silly and bad, and why most of the population has been waiting for a taxi home from the EU party for so many years! (”can we go now!”)
If Labour is only polling 18% in one of its safe seats how on earth are they managing 26-27% nationally?
There could be one hell of an upset in the next GE!
@JJ
I think you might have miscalculated there; the 3 “main” parties together have increased their vote-share by 4% in a month. The margin of error tends to be +/-3%, so this is a statistically significant fall in the “Other” vote, from 22% to 18%.
RICH,
I attended the Norwich North count for Craig Murray.
A few points occur to me.
Firstly , on its present boundaries the Tories would have won this seat in 1987 by at least 10000 – and in 1992 by 3000.
Secondly , from my observations – shared by both Labour and UKIP scrutineers – the UKIP vote came predominantly from strong working class Labour areas polling 20 – 25% in some boxes.
Finally, I attended the verification of Postal Votes a few days earlier. This was won decisively by Tories by a slightly wider margin than the final result.
GRAHAM
Thanks a lot for that information,you have cleared up some very important issues.
The tories will pick up 90% of the ukip vote labour is dead thank god
CRAIG,
I am sure that will not be true of the Norwich North UKIP vote.
@ Craig
I hope so, but I’m not so sure; their votes were apparently from “working-class Labour” areas. So can the Conservatives pull them in? Perhaps.
I can’t see UKIP breaking through much in the GE, though; Hague wasn’t exactly successful with “Save the Pound” in 2001, and Farage won’t fight where there are Tory MPs/candidates whose views a close to UKIP’s, i.e. precisely the places where he’d garner many votes.
Mind you, this “20%” habit from Labour is getting a little hard to break; perhaps UKIP is where some Labour voters will go because they refuse to vote Tory?
RICHARD MANNS.
Thie ironic thing is the Tories in 2001 fought on smaller Government & balancing the budget & no more powers to the EU.
People do not realise the borrowng from Labour started in 2001,not as they like to claim ‘only borrowing due to worldwide Credit Crunch’
Labour were warned by the EU every year form 2001 until the start of the CC on their excessive deficit,(largest in EU)more to the point Brown was the one being warned,like everyone who critics Brown, he told them they were wrong.
I believe if the state of things that were present now were present then the Tories would have done much better.
The problem was not the message from the Tories,it was the Tories were still hated.
The same will happen to Labour is oppostition,it takes time for the people to get past the hate stage & onto the start listening with respect stage to what is being said.
I know this myself a true-blue Tory now,i was a New-labour supporter,looking back i can’t believe how blinded by hate for the Tories,i did not listen to the policies that i did agree with,i wasn’t being honest with myself.
I would never vote Labour again.
The whole UKIP argument is up in the air at the moment,be in no doubt the world of politics is going to be much different after Oct 2 over the EU question.
When the Irish vote,a lose lose situation for Labour.
However the timing of the vote is just a day or two before DC gives his last Conference speech of the term.
I believe he could win the GE with his speech, if the Irish vote No & he there & thern could spell out when we would have a vote in this country on Lisbon
If the Irish vote Yes he needs to stick up for Britain not the EU.
Even people in favour of the LT should want a referendum,unlike other treaties this is self amending,in other words it is the last time we would be asked,they will never require any more treaties.
Labour & the Libs would be between a rock & a hard place,infact they still would almost certainly pontificate on whether the Irish would have to vote for a 3rd time,and as the wheels of the EU move very slowly they would not be allowed to say it was officially dead,there would be up-roar in this country from voters hearing that & the rest of the EU anti Lisbon Campaign.
We could go into the May GE not knowing if the Lisbon Treaty was dead.
I hope you’re feeling better, Anthony.