Comments on: New Populus poll

By: richard Jerrett

richard Jerrett — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 03:41:59 +0000

The polls are showing two very important pieces of information at the moment and that is the others vote dropping and the conservatives staying way out in front at close to 40 %.
There is of course one other trend which seems to have been missed and that is the slow rise of the Lib Dem vote a few weeks ago the average was 17% now it is 19 with a fair number of polls putting them at over 20. The Labour party is also beginning to show a small increase as well as the others vote drops away.
The Labour vote does have a habit of dropping away by a couple of points during an election campaign but it generally goes to the Lib Dems mainly as a tactical vote i suspect.
If the Labour Party reach 27 or 28 before the elections with the lib dems on 20 or 21 we could see the Libs polling 22 or 23 again at an election which would make things very interesting as that would reduce the Tory majority dramatically.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 22:30:45 +0000

@ Chris – 21 July,

How on earth do you read the Norwich North poll as being a swing of only 1% ?

It showed the Conservatives 4% ahead of Lab in a seat where they were previously nearly 12% behind. That works out at a swing of 8% – more than enough to give Cons a comfortable majority . The ICM Norwich North poll (now a month old) is also in line with many other polls showing a Con lead nationally of 12-15% (including this one) which indicates that the swing is indeed in the region of 8-9%.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 19:05:46 +0000

The detailed data for this poll is now on the Populus website . We can note that after the experiment of the previous 2 polls they have returned to the previous past vote weighting figures of Con 19 Lab 23 LD 13 .

By: Stephen W

Stephen W — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:48:14 +0000

I hear that. I think that short of a major miracle Labour are doomed. However, that does not necessarily mean that the Conservatives are going to win with an overwhelming mandate, which is what I would like to see, and which means the exact results in terms of seats could be very variable.

I would like to see them with a good mandate, more in terms of votes necessarily, than in terms of seats, because I think they are going to need to take some tough decisions and that will be greatly harder with a weak level of support. Though that is not to say that a government can not build on its electoral support through firm action, see 79-83.

I hope for some kind of firm action from Cameron and the Conservative team that would propell them forward again. We will have to wait and see though.

By: James Ludlow

James Ludlow — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:56:21 +0000

@ Stephen W –

Sorry, I lapsed into surrealism there for a moment. It happens to me sometimes. One minute it’s all politics, the next its tadpoles …

I’m not exactly a diehard Tory but I will vote Tory next time. Based on the polls over the last year, including the most recent ones, it looks to me like the Tories will win with a healthy majority. Personally I think that’s ideal – landslide victories give a govt too much power and tend to result in sloppy policy, arrogance and presumption.

I doubt that a narrow victory is on the cards. But nothing’s certain because the polls don’t give us the spread of votes, which is so crucial to outcome with our FPTP constituency system. Having said that, I do feel fairly confident that Labour hasn’t a snowball’s chance of significant recovery from its meltdown.

By: PAUL(BROWNOUTIN2010)

PAUL(BROWNOUTIN2010) — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:48:29 +0000

I applaud Stepen W for trying to analyse the polls rather than be partisan like some
It is appearing polls are returning to normal with ‘others’ dropping in score
As ever I mention that Labour ALWAYS get less votes in real General Elections than in polls
They need to be ahead of the Tories in polls in my opinion to have any hope of stopping them winning
This is because

1 Marginals will swing against Labour more than the country – polls have been showing
2 Labour will get less than in opinion polls

By: Stephen W

Stephen W — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 19:19:14 +0000

“if you look at all the polls every other poll this month”

Sorry, of course I actually mean that it’s been one above 40, one below, one above 40, one below, as in alternatingly, rather than all the other polls apart from this one.

By: Stephen W

Stephen W — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:55:47 +0000

To Wayne, James Ludlow,

“Is no straw too flimsy for desperate Labourites to cling to? Here, grab this tadpole’s tail and wiggle towards Cormorant Rock over there”.

I like.

Actually I’m a life long Conservative supporter (apart from a brief flirtation 97-99). I was merely pointing out the distinct lack of progress on a year ago.

Furthermore, if you look at all the polls every other poll this month has been under 40, and in June almost every poll was in the 30’s. The average for the Conservatives is struggling to reach 40 (back to 39 now).

I think it would be bad for the Cons on a political level to win a 2005 style victory, which would leave them vulnerable over the hard decisions they have to take both to SNP troublemakers and generally to Lab and Libs as lacking a strong democratic mandate. And yes I can be sure that they would use it as an excuse to cause trouble, despite Labour’s lack of concern about their non-existant mandate post 2005.

By: Colin

Colin — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:27:06 +0000

Get well soon Anthony

By: Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:06:03 +0000

There will still be a number of Tory supporters who will sleep better at night when their avrerage increases to 43-44%

The Tory poll rating needs to be at least 12 points clear of Labour to guarantee a workable majority.