New Populus poll

Populus monthly poll for the Times is out, rather later in the month than usual. Topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 38%(+2), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 20%(+1).

“Others” are down five points to 16%. We are seeing support for other parties falling from all the pollsters, but there is still no clear picture as to who it is benefiting. Here the Conservatives and Labour have benefitted equally, other pollsters have shown the Conservatives or Lib Dems doing better from their decline.

On unrelated matters, I’m labouring under a double whammy of swine flu and a power cut, so expect slow blogging for the next day or two. I think there may well be a MORI poll over the next day or two, so use this thread to discuss that too.


31 Responses to “New Populus poll”

  1. Good luck and get well soon…

  2. Get better Anthony!

    Well it is at least clear the others are indeed loosing support.

    This only reinforces my opinion that the Greens performance in the by-election is being talked up, if the ‘others’ are indeed slumping, this will have an effect on the byelection. Especially since all polsters say the Cons and Liberals have recovered slightly (labours less clear)

    Mind you…..ITS ALL WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR! THINGS MAY STILL BE STATIC

  3. WMA 39:25:19 really odd that the polls seem so stuck, but it is summer and they were pretty much stuck at 45:26:17 last summer. However morale in Labour has collapsed and no-one thinks Brown can survive the election, so it’s a slow motion crash.

    Do get well soon.

  4. Interesting speculation in the Times yesterday about Mandelson. William Rees-Mogg claims that there is a game plan whereby the Irish ratify the Lisbon Treaty and Blair is appointed President of the EU, the law is changed to permit Lords to resign and re-enter the Commons, and Mandelson takes advantage of this to become an MP and replace Brown as leader at the beginning of next year, sealing the Blairite position and rectifying the “wrong” of his grandfather Herbert Morrison’s failure to achieve that position.

    Now Rees-Mogg is not exactly renowed for his insights into the political scene and I usually work on the basis that whatever he says, take the opposite for an accurate view, but in this case the scenario has a certain machiavellian logic. In extremis, the Labour party have few obvious alternatives to turn to. However, the history of kingmakers becoming kings is littered with failure.

  5. How reliable are Populus? I note that some of the comments on PB were criticising its vote weighting methodology.

  6. Anthony get well soon.

    Interesting numbers from Populus slightly lower for the Tory share when compared with YouGov and ICM. Labour share seems staic around the mid twenties.

    It will be interesting to receive another ICM YouGov to see if they show some fairly settling numbers now after the Euro’s and Expenses gate, we shall see.

  7. Blimey Leslie, can you really work out what the opposite of Ree-Mogg’s cunning scenario is?
    :)

  8. @ Leslie

    That could well be the plan, however it has no more chance of success than all the other Labour plans (nil)

  9. This poll is considerably more worrying for the Tories.

    After everything that’s happened you would think they would be doing better than this in comparison to last year where as said the results were 45:2617.

    Labour is still around that total but the Cons are still around 6 pts down from here.

    it seems that Labour have been comprehensively disgraced and seem unlikely to ever pass 30% until the next election. However, that said, if the Conservatives continue to have a problem reaching 40 then we could see a Labour recovery.

  10. Blair appointed President of the EU? I don’t think so; why would the EU other states appoint the ex PM of an anti-EU country even if he speaks French…

  11. Firstly, Anthony, tuck up warm and get well soon. Don’t worry about these posts – it’s silly season anyway.

    Leslie / John TT / Jack

    I commented on the Lords rule change on the open thread yesterday but in response to your various comments:

    1) Plausible scenario – sufficiently machiavellian to have originated from Mandy’s mind.

    2) Indeed, kingmakers seldom become king, and on the rare occasions they do it is usually a disaster.

    3) Lots could go wrong. Apart from timing issues (if the Lords chuck out the plan it can’t be forced through this side of an election) there is the big question of how Mandy can get into the Commons in time. Which Lab MP is going to fall on his sword (sorry get bumped upstairs) to create a vacancy in a seat which Mandy is guaranteed to hold in a by-election ?

    4) Rees-Mogg could be wrong. Maybe the cunning plan is to chuck out all non-Lab nominated peers (*), then declare the House of Lords the primary chamber, with Mandy as “Viceroy” to Blair’s EU President. Brown can stay in his post as “Leader” of the Labour party (in the Commons) and First Lord of the Treasury – with a remit to manage the transition to the Euro. Elections will be permitted to the Commons (from time to time) but since it will have been stripped of all power it does not matter who those stupid electors put there.

    5) The rest of the EU will evidently appoint Blair as President since only he can deliver Britain bound in chains to its new EU masters. The objections of the less important membes will simply be over-ruled.

    (*) This can be achieved by “reconstituting” the House, but only Labour appointees get nominated thanks to patronage of Brown – his last significant task.

    The essence of machiavellianism is to identify what stratagems your opponents consider least plausible, then find innocent-looking ways to lead them into delivering it for you.

  12. I agree with Stephen W – this is a worrying level for the Tories. They need to be at 42 at the very least (but preferably 44) or we could see a very slim majority or a hung parliament.

    Having said that, Labour’s results tend to slip a little in the actual GE (they certainly did in 2005) so there could be a 2 point shift to 40:24:20 which would give a better result.

    In fact a mere 2 point shift from Labour to the Tories would increase their majority by over 50 seats!

  13. Stephen W and Andrew Myers.
    “I agree with Stephen W – this is a worrying level for the Tories. They need to be at 42 at the very least ”

    If you look at the last two You Gov 40 and 42 and the last ICM 41 the tories are back in the forties.

    As I said earlier on here it will be a lot clearer when we see the next YouGov and ICM to see where things really are.

  14. It’s not at all worrying for “the Tories”. It’s a 12 pt lead following another poll a few days ago giving a 17 pt lead. As nothing spectacular has happened between the two, the most likely scenario is a vote share somewhere between those two figures, and even the lowest one is still a healthy lead.

    Is no straw too flimsy for desperate Labourites to cling to? Here, grab this tadpole’s tail and wiggle towards Cormorant Rock over there.

  15. All the best for a rapid recovery, Anthony. Take care.

  16. Indeed – I hope you are better soon Anthony.

    Looks like the Mori Poll has been published.

    Results are:

    Conservative 40% (+2)
    Labour 24% (+3)
    Liberal Democrats 18% (-1)

  17. Indeed – I hope you are better soon Anthony.

    Looks like the Mori Poll has been published.

    Results are:

    Conservative 40% (+2)
    Labour 24% (+3)
    Liberal Democrats 18% (-1)

    That would give a Tory majority of 100 seats

  18. Firstly, Anthony, take care and get well soon.

    I would imagine that the ratings for the Conservatives and Labour are probably as far apart as they would reasonably expect to be given that there will be a core of labour (and indeed other party) supporters who will be core supporters and would not vote Conservative or labour under any circumstances.

  19. The polls aren’t great for the Cons at the moment and if you look at the Norwich by-election – only 1% swing from Labour to the Cons is hardly a glowing endorsement.

    The recent predictions of the majority of ‘other’ party voters moving back to the Cons has also been exposed as a myth.

    The cons have far got the election in the bag – and I do sense some nervousness from them and their supporters. Not too late for Cameron to do a Kinnock.

  20. The moving average is 40 for the tories, and the majority of the more recent polling data now shows the tories on 40+; therefore I completely fail to see what people are talking about; the tories are where they need to be.

    And may I remind some people that there is nothing ‘golden’ about 40 (it isnt the magic number)- because Labour are so far short of 30%.

  21. Well put Dean Thomson !

    As James Ludlow put it:
    “Is no straw too flimsy for desperate Labourites to cling to? Here, grab this tadpole’s tail and wiggle towards Cormorant Rock over there”.

  22. There will still be a number of Tory supporters who will sleep better at night when their avrerage increases to 43-44%

    The Tory poll rating needs to be at least 12 points clear of Labour to guarantee a workable majority.

  23. Get well soon Anthony

  24. To Wayne, James Ludlow,

    “Is no straw too flimsy for desperate Labourites to cling to? Here, grab this tadpole’s tail and wiggle towards Cormorant Rock over there”.

    I like.

    Actually I’m a life long Conservative supporter (apart from a brief flirtation 97-99). I was merely pointing out the distinct lack of progress on a year ago.

    Furthermore, if you look at all the polls every other poll this month has been under 40, and in June almost every poll was in the 30’s. The average for the Conservatives is struggling to reach 40 (back to 39 now).

    I think it would be bad for the Cons on a political level to win a 2005 style victory, which would leave them vulnerable over the hard decisions they have to take both to SNP troublemakers and generally to Lab and Libs as lacking a strong democratic mandate. And yes I can be sure that they would use it as an excuse to cause trouble, despite Labour’s lack of concern about their non-existant mandate post 2005.

  25. “if you look at all the polls every other poll this month”

    Sorry, of course I actually mean that it’s been one above 40, one below, one above 40, one below, as in alternatingly, rather than all the other polls apart from this one.

  26. I applaud Stepen W for trying to analyse the polls rather than be partisan like some
    It is appearing polls are returning to normal with ‘others’ dropping in score
    As ever I mention that Labour ALWAYS get less votes in real General Elections than in polls
    They need to be ahead of the Tories in polls in my opinion to have any hope of stopping them winning
    This is because

    1 Marginals will swing against Labour more than the country – polls have been showing
    2 Labour will get less than in opinion polls

  27. @ Stephen W –

    :D Sorry, I lapsed into surrealism there for a moment. It happens to me sometimes. One minute it’s all politics, the next its tadpoles …

    I’m not exactly a diehard Tory but I will vote Tory next time. Based on the polls over the last year, including the most recent ones, it looks to me like the Tories will win with a healthy majority. Personally I think that’s ideal – landslide victories give a govt too much power and tend to result in sloppy policy, arrogance and presumption.

    I doubt that a narrow victory is on the cards. But nothing’s certain because the polls don’t give us the spread of votes, which is so crucial to outcome with our FPTP constituency system. Having said that, I do feel fairly confident that Labour hasn’t a snowball’s chance of significant recovery from its meltdown.

  28. I hear that. I think that short of a major miracle Labour are doomed. However, that does not necessarily mean that the Conservatives are going to win with an overwhelming mandate, which is what I would like to see, and which means the exact results in terms of seats could be very variable.

    I would like to see them with a good mandate, more in terms of votes necessarily, than in terms of seats, because I think they are going to need to take some tough decisions and that will be greatly harder with a weak level of support. Though that is not to say that a government can not build on its electoral support through firm action, see 79-83.

    I hope for some kind of firm action from Cameron and the Conservative team that would propell them forward again. We will have to wait and see though.

  29. The detailed data for this poll is now on the Populus website . We can note that after the experiment of the previous 2 polls they have returned to the previous past vote weighting figures of Con 19 Lab 23 LD 13 .

  30. @ Chris – 21 July,

    How on earth do you read the Norwich North poll as being a swing of only 1% ?

    It showed the Conservatives 4% ahead of Lab in a seat where they were previously nearly 12% behind. That works out at a swing of 8% – more than enough to give Cons a comfortable majority . The ICM Norwich North poll (now a month old) is also in line with many other polls showing a Con lead nationally of 12-15% (including this one) which indicates that the swing is indeed in the region of 8-9%.

  31. The polls are showing two very important pieces of information at the moment and that is the others vote dropping and the conservatives staying way out in front at close to 40 %.
    There is of course one other trend which seems to have been missed and that is the slow rise of the Lib Dem vote a few weeks ago the average was 17% now it is 19 with a fair number of polls putting them at over 20. The Labour party is also beginning to show a small increase as well as the others vote drops away.
    The Labour vote does have a habit of dropping away by a couple of points during an election campaign but it generally goes to the Lib Dems mainly as a tactical vote i suspect.
    If the Labour Party reach 27 or 28 before the elections with the lib dems on 20 or 21 we could see the Libs polling 22 or 23 again at an election which would make things very interesting as that would reduce the Tory majority dramatically.