Sunday Polls
Posted on July 18th, 2009 by Anthony Wells
I’m hoping for at least two new voting intention polls tonight. I’m off to a BBQ and might not be back before they appear, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the results.
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Good evening Ladies and Gents,
Imminent Polls I hear, at last !
Anyway I am going to give you all a bit more of my “brilliant political emotional intelligence” and predict the following:
If its a:
YouGov C42, L24, LD22
ComRes C40, L26, LD21
Populus C42, L25, LD20
IpsosMori C41, L26, LD21
And that is my ever brilliant best predictions. I won’t be far out with my brilliance you will see.
OK Wayne…..
There’s nothing quite like being modest is there..!!
should see a more realistic picture tonight of voting intentions
Why do you think the Lib Dems will do well? I’d be surprised if the Tories are scoring over 40.
My prediction from any poll:
Labour: 26
Tory: 39
Lib Dem: 19
Wayne you are sadly wrong on all counts
YouGov Poll: http://news.itn.co.uk/650d08fc2afe79a3dc6492eff6b62493.html
CON 42% (+2%)
LAB 25% (+1%)
LD 18% (nc)
Others 15%
Finally. I was starting to think the pollsters had given up for the summer holidays.
YouGov poll shown on ITN News Website:
CON 42% (+2%)
LAB 25% (+1%)
LD 18% (nc)
Others 15%
I am brilliant only 1 point out with Labour share and spot on with the tories (see above)
comres poll also out tomorrow shows
CON 38
LAB 23
LD 22
OTH 17
and yougov as pointed in last comment
CON 42
LAB 25
LD 18
OTH 15
so up for the tories and we maybe seeing a return to a steady voting picture again after two months of high other vote.
yes wayne, but 4 pts out for the LDs…
The Com Res projection has the Libs taking a lot of Labour seats, particularly in the North and has them closing in on 2nd place; even then, the Libs only end up with the same number of seats as they currently have.
You Gov, who, for my money are rather more reliable, gives the Tories a predicted 132 majority overall.
Whichever way you look at it, it ends up as a win-win scenario for Cameron.
Interesting to see the ‘others’ still polling highly. I wonder if this proves true with the Norwich North by-election this week.
So overall
YouGov poll shown on ITN News Website:
CON 42% (+2%)
LAB 25% (+1%)
LD 18% (nc)
Others 15%
Con lead 17% (+1)
Comres
CON 38 (+2)
LAB 23 (-2)
LD 22 (+3)
OTH 17
Con lead 15 (+4)
Good point about Norwich, Luke.
Incidentally, The Con. candidate there is 27 years old and the Labour guy 28. Knowing that part of the country I wonder if that is a big mistake from both main parties. Perhaps the ‘others’ will really benefit as a result. I still expect the Tories to win, though.
From ComRes the others divide UKIP 2, BNP 3, Greens 4, Nationalists 4. That’s 4% unaccounted for (usually from people saying “Other” but refusing to specify which! BNP? )
If Cons can achieve these figures while around half of respondents still don’t know what Cameron stands for ( ComRes), Labour are really in a pit.
Both of these Polls seem to produce opinions on Afghanistan at odds with the recent ICM Newsnight poll.
BBQ? This weather?
On the basis of these polls it appears that Labour are likely to enter the recess having lost the Norwich by election and facing a large Tory majority.
The summer recess is traditionally one that is good for the Government as they can make the news but may be that won’t be true this year with job and Afghanistan losses likely to be the main news drivers
Thus in September are we likely to see a realisation amongst Labour MPs (and Mandleson) they have nothing to lose by changing leader for an election in say Oct/Nov might give a boost that Brown could never achieve?
I expect Norwhich to be a straight fight between the Tories & Lib-dems with Labour having to scrabble with various others for a poor third place.
UKIP are surprisingly low in the breakdown for those others considering the Euros. Well below BNP? Doesn’t appear they’ve gone flooding back to the Tories either, at least in relation to the others.
Very bad results for Labour
Comres Yougov
Con 38 42 %
Lab 23 25 %
Lib 22 18 %
Con lead 15 17 %
in both Polls Cons increase lead and Labour remain in fail to break even back in high 20’s.
Good results for Libs from Comres, within 1pt of Labour in a poll, though either one of the lib results is rogue or their real result is somewhere in the middle of the two. Still it’s their best poll result since they almost caught level with Labour at the end of May/start of June.
The average result of the two polls of 40C: 24L: 20LD would give a Tory majority of 86.
It also looks like the trend is for the Tory lead holding, if not increasing slightly