It is interesting that there doesn’t have to be much change in the percentage of votes for the three main parties (Lab +1, Lib Dem +1, Cons -2) from the current WMA for the Conservatives to go from a majority of 64 to being short of an overall majority by 3. This obviously assumes that ‘Others’ will remain around 20% which seems pretty unlikely.

However does a fall in the ‘Others’ support necessarily mean a rise in Conservative support at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats? If so, why?

Those amongst you who cite a “feeling” seem to me to have not come to terms with the idea that Labour may be over.

Likewise, I’m yet to meet anyone who’s mad keen to vote for the Tories – even tactically! Same goes for the lib dems.
They’re tired of all three and want a change from all three!
Tory is still a dirty word in many places; Lib Dems are still regarded as a party for minorities, and Labour as incompetent nest-feathering control-freaks.

The general vibe seems to be that all the main three are a wasted vote… that the pervading vibe is don’t bother voting, or vote for a minor party if you can be bothered.

I reckon (give or take a couple of percent):

Tory 35%
Labour 25%
Lib Dem 15%
Others 25%

out of a turnout of about 45%…

The New Labour project is simply running out of steam, ambition and well if you draw the policies between both Labour and Tory, these no real ideological difference between the two so some Middle England voters will look at this and think well who am i going to trust more to keep taxation low, cut spending, repay the debt etc. They both might aim to do that but the Tories will be seem to have the ‘record’ to show to get them voters.

I believe it wont be until Labour re-invent itself from the structure of it’s party which even I admit is far from being democratic and representative to party members and also a change in policy and direction. Labour has simply no new policies to base itself with and it might be until Labour starts using ‘green’ policies, restoring it’s old labour ethos in terms in putting social justice and equality through the distrubtion of wealth etc. til it starts seeing itself as electable.

But yeah, at the moment their is such a anti-labour government in politics, the public are just tired with Labour and want change so they will see the Tories as that change. Again, i agree with Joe that come the election people who say they would vote green, lib dem will be told by the Labour propaganda machine during the election about the ‘bad-old’ tory years which is now becoming rather cliche and just old now even as a supporter. If the Lib Dem go below 20 i think it will start a chain reaction of lib dem voters who will hit home the idea that the lib dems are just simply a wasted vote and not creditable party to become a serious party.

So yeah, in general Labour <35, Tories 40(ish), Lib Dems <19 thats how i see the election results.

I have been slightly revising my Labour figures down, however, from about 33% towards 30-32%.

I would hope the Conservatives go slightly above 40, as I want them to win.
Your LD and Others figure looks about right aswell. I actually think if Labour recovers some voters who are anti Tory and worried, whilst simulaneously the Tories do well, then the LD figure could logically fall below the 17.2 of 1997.

But there do seem to be a certain number of voters who go LD when Labour’s figures go very low, and it is actually in the Conservatives interest that Labour stays higher, as it’s bad for the Tories if the credibility of the LDs is raised.

Lab 34%
Con 40%
LD 18%
Others 9%

I don’t really have an argument to pitch this but just my instict but my argument for this is because come the general election campaign and this is only if David Cameron keeps on splashing out policies which I believe is rather short-beer tbh with the British public, the election excitment will all get under way they will be a lot of media coverage about the policies, record etc. and looking at it Labour will seem to pick up some dillisuioned voters who feel more attached in terms of policies with Labour which will give them enough to hold itself as a creditable opersition but not enough to stop the conservatives becoming the largest party. Like i said I have no argument just a guess really. It’s what i would put with the bookies.