http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_06_09_devolution_poll.pdf

‘Salmond ‘more popular’ than Brown’

The Scottish first minister is considerably more popular in Scotland than either Gordon Brown or David Cameron, a BBC poll has suggested.

The poll, commissioned from ICM, found more than half of those questioned thought Alex Salmond was doing a “good” or “very good” job.

But only 37% believed Mr Brown was performing well as UK prime minister.

Tory leader Mr Cameron fared even worse, with only 21% thinking he would make a good prime minister.

The poll of 1,010 people was carried out by ICM between 22 and 24 June to mark a decade of Scottish devolution.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8127464.stm

I say this as an English Unionist, but one who is entirely relaxed at the prospect of Scottish independence if that is the genuine will of the Scots.

The other non-relevant examples given are more than outweighed by what happens by those countries which got freedom when the Empire collapsed and earlier. countries such as India, Pakistan, Australia, South Africa etc which show what happens when people get a feel for their freedom. These are more than the equivalent of the examples others have used.

The point I was making actually was a simple one–once enough people get a taste for independence / freedom then it can not be stopped. Look at the recent polls for increased powers for Scotland. In the 1960s SNP was basket case politics; now it is in government. The issue of independence is now a mainstream argument issue and will not disappear .

Indeed this poll the last three YouGov polls and most importantly the Sunday times Scottish poll all show them avergaing about 17%.

So far some reason over the Euros the Tories seem to have lost ground while the SNP has pulled ahead of Labour.

Theories anybody.

Peter.

I do agree in that I suspect we are setteld for the Summer, with the Conservatives on 40% or a little less, and the LibDems on about 17/18%. To be honest, this represents a disappointing lack of progress for these parties, because of what I do not agree about.

What is new is the high level of support for Other Parties, notably the Greens but also UKIP. And we really do need to have firues quoted for significant Other parties now. These parties benefited in June from “a plague on all your houses” reactions to the Commons expenses scandals, and it looks as though these others, having shaken perceptions as to what is on offer, are hanging onto much of their newfound support.

Over recent years, Labour have persistently floored at about 28/29%. It looks like they have a new, even lower floor.

I don’t see that Labour’s internal splits will get worse. I suspect that those who would jump have jumped, and that the Brown/Blair-Mandelson camps are at an uncomfortable stand-off. However, I suspect that events are more likely to go against Labour than for them. The Autumn is traditionally a bad time for economic news (see Rich’s news). Also, I wonder whether the Government can really increase VAT at the start of next year. They have to for their accounts, but the economy may not be strong enough.

The newspaper campaign about MPs’ expenses was quite unprecedented. Labour and MPs generally did not investigate enough in response. I wonder what attacks on Labour can possibly be in store in the immediate run-up to the election. Think Zinoviev Letter. At the simplest, Labour looks as though it is going to be heavily outgunned in terms of the finance available for the election campaign and surrounding matters.

Seems a tad draconian! Surely it still has some validity, even if it is only weighted by the usual factors, such as age-group, socio-economic group, gender and probably educational status and newspaper readership etc?

Not really,i can see why you assume that,cast your mind back to pre-recession UK,or even before the credit-crunch had hit the USA,it was OIL prices that put Labour on their lowest poll ratings since Foot 25%,it was in fact the credit crunch that gave Brown his famous bounces.

Darling has hiked duty when Oil was a $30 a barrel,in fact if Oil went to $150 again(not saying it will) instead of paying £1.30p a litre,we would be paying £1.40p or higher,on the hikes alone,without future rises now the Labour Government has brought back the fuel escalator.

When the Utility bills increased they were doing so with Sterling at $2.00-$2.10.Sterling is now in a range of $1.55-$1.65 as commodities are priced in Dollars this could also see a spike in UK utility bills.

With our deficit Sterling could get left behind by a run up of other currencies against the dollar,such as the Euro.

During the run up of Sterling last time there was a difference between Euro-Sterling against the Dollar of about $30c to Sterlings favour,now it is 10c.

Now with the USA in recovery you just watch that OIl price go,it has gone from $30 to $70 in the blink of an eye with the US posting two 6% drops in GDP for two consectutive quarters,if the US resumes growth in the next quarter oil will spike.(USA USE’S 25% OF THE WORLDS DAILY OIL SUPPLY)

Labour’s claim to be for the poor will once again be shown up,with brits with pre-payment meters and the less well off elderly being hit the most,Labour’s traditional voter.

Unemployment at 2.75m i think is fair conclusion,