Comments on: New YouGov poll

By: Promsan

Promsan — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:51:48 +0000

all this talk of percentages belies the lack of high actual volume of support either way.

moreover, isn’t it apparent yet that the public is far more volatile than in the pre-broadband age?

who amongst us really believes that politicians cringing grins out in hospitals and nursing homes really means a god damn thing?

By: Neil

Neil — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 19:48:34 +0000

Philip,

I think you are probably right about the swing from UKIP-Conservative between now and September. However, for the Conservatives to hold that support until the General Election will be very difficult if the Lisbon Constitution is ratified, UNLESS the Conservatives promise a referendum regardless of whether the Constitution is ratified or not.

By: Philip JW

Philip JW — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 16:39:22 +0000

Rich,

Somewhat similiar to your prediction about the GE I think it will be

Cons 41-45%
Labour 20-28%
Lib Dems 19-25%

But as you will see I think there is quite a large degree of unpredictability still about the ultimate result.

I will be very surprised if the polls don’t show a movement from UKIP to the Cons by the end of the conference season in September.

By: NBeale

NBeale — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 04:56:33 +0000

Weighted Moving Average 38:24:18. Amazing that the cabinet reshuffle and the blatant lies abour “Labour Investment” (this is not a partisan comment – every indpendent commentator agrees on this point) havent hurt Labour in the polls … yet.

By: Neil A

Neil A — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 21:32:31 +0000

I would make a few points about this;

1) Although the Conservative figure doesn’t look particularly good, we are currently in an atypical polling environment with the Others far above their usual position. In this new environment, 38% is a pretty handsome trawl.

2) Although boosted by the expenses scandal, the Others vote is largely composed of eurosceptic, right-leaning small parties. What happens to their figures is likely to depend on what happens with the Lisbon Treaty.

3) If the Lisbon Treaty is not ratified before the next election, the Tory campaign on Europe will be united, clear and very compelling. They promise a Referendum and most of the UKIP/BNP vote is won over to them.

4) If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified before the election, it will depend on what the Conservative manifesto says about it. Anything less than a promise of a retrospective referendum will result in a high UKIP/BNP vote. However, making that promise would divide the Tories and weaken them in the face of the LibDems.

5) If Labour ratify the treaty before the election, they are likely to face the wrath of a very motivated, eurosceptic electorate.

In summary,
Treaty Ratified = bad for Tories, bad for Labour, good for UKIP/BNP, good for LibDems.
Treay Not Ratified = good for Tories, OK for LibDems, bad for Labour, bad for UKIP/BNP.