moreover, isn’t it apparent yet that the public is far more volatile than in the pre-broadband age?

who amongst us really believes that politicians cringing grins out in hospitals and nursing homes really means a god damn thing?

I think you are probably right about the swing from UKIP-Conservative between now and September. However, for the Conservatives to hold that support until the General Election will be very difficult if the Lisbon Constitution is ratified, UNLESS the Conservatives promise a referendum regardless of whether the Constitution is ratified or not.

Somewhat similiar to your prediction about the GE I think it will be

Cons 41-45%
Labour 20-28%
Lib Dems 19-25%

But as you will see I think there is quite a large degree of unpredictability still about the ultimate result.

I will be very surprised if the polls don’t show a movement from UKIP to the Cons by the end of the conference season in September.

1) Although the Conservative figure doesn’t look particularly good, we are currently in an atypical polling environment with the Others far above their usual position. In this new environment, 38% is a pretty handsome trawl.

2) Although boosted by the expenses scandal, the Others vote is largely composed of eurosceptic, right-leaning small parties. What happens to their figures is likely to depend on what happens with the Lisbon Treaty.

3) If the Lisbon Treaty is not ratified before the next election, the Tory campaign on Europe will be united, clear and very compelling. They promise a Referendum and most of the UKIP/BNP vote is won over to them.

4) If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified before the election, it will depend on what the Conservative manifesto says about it. Anything less than a promise of a retrospective referendum will result in a high UKIP/BNP vote. However, making that promise would divide the Tories and weaken them in the face of the LibDems.

5) If Labour ratify the treaty before the election, they are likely to face the wrath of a very motivated, eurosceptic electorate.

In summary,
Treaty Ratified = bad for Tories, bad for Labour, good for UKIP/BNP, good for LibDems.
Treay Not Ratified = good for Tories, OK for LibDems, bad for Labour, bad for UKIP/BNP.

How much do you trust the Conservatives/Labour to take the right decisions about taxes and public
spending?:- Net Distrust 19% / 35%

If the Conservatives /Labour win the next election
Do you think they will increase or reduce the
taxes paid by people like you or not make much
difference?:-Net Raise Taxes 54% / 68%

Some people say it is possible to reduce public
spending by up to ten per cent by running our public
services more efficiently, and without reducing
the quality of public services or the level of
welfare benefits.
In principle do you think it is possible to do this
or not? :- Net Yes 63%

Could Conservatives/Labour do this ?
:-Net No 22% / 46%

ie-a huge endorsement of Cameron’s ” more for less” objectives, but a lack of confidence he can achieve it-but twice as unconfident about Labour.

A lack of confidence that Cons will take the right public finances decisions-and twice as unconfident about Labour.

A significant majority think both Labour & Cons will increase Taxes.

These opinions really explain the rather half-hearted Conservative Polling lead, and the Polling trough into which Labour has fallen , ie :-realism, lack of confidence & cynicism.

I still think there will be a bit of a UKIP drift back to the Conservatives and Labour may well gain from the BNP. In the end, I think this election could turn on the UKIP vote.

The Telegraph would have been more accurate if they said 4 in 5 voters want to cut public spending, as the actual figure was 79%.

I think raising taxes should be a last resort, but may be necessary to get us out of the mess we are in. What is really concerning is that the figures on what to do with the economy add up to 91%, suggesting that 9% think we should neither raise taxes nor cut spending – surely that must be Gordon Brown’s core support – those who approve of his borrow and spend policy.

Conservative 38
Labour 25
Lib Dem 18

With both main parties “stuck” there is a lot to play for.

I suggested in an earlier post that the current debate by GB against almost everyone else on Spending Cuts was unwinnable by him and his replacement in the Autumn is not unthinkable, After all once Mandleson has the Lisbon Treaty ratified there is no value to him in keeping Brown when he’d much rather concentrate his energies on ensuring there’s no Labour wipeout

Of course I’m speculating but not totally and putting these two thoughts together does mean the GE is by no means won by Cameron. In short 39/30/20 would give a hung parliament