New YouGov poll

YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has been published. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s most recent poll, are CON 38%(-2), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 18%(nc). There is a slight fall in Conservative support, but the changes are well within the margin of error. Support for other parties doesn’t seem to be subsiding much yet at 19%.

The Telegraph’s report is here, but only contains a few more findings. David Cameron leads Gordon Brown as best PM by 35% to 18%, the poll also asked whether people would prefer tax rises or lower public spending – 31% said less spending, 12% higher taxes and 48% a mixture of the two.

19 Responses to “New YouGov poll”

  1. Lib Dems dont seem to have moved much this month, next month may be better for them. Labours is all over the place (but pretty consistant in the low-mid 20’s despite the mini boost), my bet is we dont see them go much above 25, closer to 20-22 and conservatives will hold a strong lead 39-42.

  2. The Lib Dems have missed their chance to truely make some ground. They will continue to stay around the 18-20 mark for at least the next full round of polls. Labour will get back to the 27-28 mark and the Tories will stay around 38-39. A commanding lead for the Tories into the 40s won’t be achieveable at the moment.
    By conference season, the Tories will be back at 40-42, Labour at 30 and LD 20, the other vote will have definitely dropped by then.
    This, will,in my opinion lead to a General election of 2010, with economic growth picking up with Labour getting 29 Tories 37 and LD 19.
    As you can see, I have little insght into polling, just like to make a good ole stab in the dark. :)

  3. @Ashley – Agree that Lib Dems have missed the opportunity, but consider it strange that you believe the Gov will regain 5-10 point (depending on the pollster) for a consistent period of time. I’m afraid the argument for change has already been made and I cannot see a reversal of their fortunes within this parliment or even the next – Cons will rise to 40-42 but unlikely to rise above 45 until an election is called and they make policy statements.

    Brown continues to be a millstone and I cannot see labour moving him. This will be their downfall as it will prove that they are more interested in saving their own jobs for as long as possible and not interested in what their voters actually want. Labour could hardly be accused of being the Listening government at the moment.

    I expect Labour to continue to poll within 2 points of 22 for the rest of the parliment – if it does not go much lower. I also expect the lib dems to start to gain 1-2% points possibly surpassing labour as we come towards an election.

  4. Another no change poll with typical deltas within moe.
    I don’t have a forecast – surprises me how certain some people seem to be.
    Seems clear we need a few months for other to drift back and the conference season to conclude before we really know where we are.
    PBR may well have an impact as well.

  5. Am I alone in finding the “whether people would prefer tax rises or lower public spending” question rather pointless, as inevitably the vast majority of respondents want lower spending on other people and tax rises on other people. The question should be whether people prefer lower public spending or tax rises on themselves.

  6. So, the Conservatives are on what they got at the locals, Labour are up 2 from the locals and the Lib Dems are down 7% from their locals. If others are sat at 19% by the end of the conferences, then we are going into a fascinating election. Expenses will continue to play out and I actually think the only way to solve it is to be seen to clean your party.

    The whole cuts issue is in danger of becoming a stale debate and if parties are to be seen to be obssessed with it. People are down, the economy is in a mess and it’s time for that vision theme. But the problem is there was a major policy speech on Thursday. Who will actually notice it? Until we can get clear of this expenses issue, then I suspect the polls will stick at around these levels moving slightly up and down.

  7. I think that the Cons have slipped one point and are close to 39% This may be due to the fading aura that came from Euro victories.

    Based on recent polls there is no good reason for thinking that Labour have improved their position of being close to 23.5%

    As for the Lib Dems their position has not changed. But I think that a slightly more accurate assessment than the one I gave previously is that they are close to 18.5%.

  8. Interesting that the Telegraph chose to headline this poll as “Three quarters of Britons say cut public spending”. On the same data it could equally have been headlined as “60% of Britons call for higher taxes” but maybe that’s not what they think their readers want to hear.

  9. I think there is one thing that people are overlooking,and you just cannot,if you are a UKIP voter,you are not going to vote for labour or the Lib-Dems at the GE,even if you don’t agree with the Conservatives they are preferable to the other two as to determining who is in #10 after the GE if Europe is your main concern..

    Most UKIP voters are ex-Torys or are Torys trying to change Camerons mind on the EU.

    GE Result in my opinion.

    Labour 27%-29%
    Conservatives 43%-45%
    Lib Dems 20%

    I am a Tory voter,and although not as anti-EU as UKIP i despise the Lisbon Treaty & most regulation that come from the EU,i voted UKIP in the EU Elections to give DC food for thought.

    I wasn’t alone,i will however walk over hot coles to vote Tory at the GE.

  10. I’m not convinced the current weight of support for ‘Others’ will dissipate quite so easily as some suggest by the time of the GE. UKIP say they intend to put up over 300 candidates in the GE. Adding in the Nationalists and the Greens in their particular strongpoints and the Tories share may not grow much from current levels.

    I suggested in an earlier post that the current debate by GB against almost everyone else on Spending Cuts was unwinnable by him and his replacement in the Autumn is not unthinkable, After all once Mandleson has the Lisbon Treaty ratified there is no value to him in keeping Brown when he’d much rather concentrate his energies on ensuring there’s no Labour wipeout

    Of course I’m speculating but not totally and putting these two thoughts together does mean the GE is by no means won by Cameron. In short 39/30/20 would give a hung parliament

  11. Based on all recent polls, I should say that this one is just about spot-on.

    Conservative 38
    Labour 25
    Lib Dem 18

    With both main parties “stuck” there is a lot to play for.

  12. Kevin Hawkins,

    The Telegraph would have been more accurate if they said 4 in 5 voters want to cut public spending, as the actual figure was 79%.

    I think raising taxes should be a last resort, but may be necessary to get us out of the mess we are in. What is really concerning is that the figures on what to do with the economy add up to 91%, suggesting that 9% think we should neither raise taxes nor cut spending – surely that must be Gordon Brown’s core support – those who approve of his borrow and spend policy.

  13. David D – I agree that if there is to be a drift back of the others vote, it is not going to happen any time soon. Usually we could expect it to drift away when the election approaches as minds are concentrated. This is going to be the most important conference of David Cameron’s career I suspect, because if he is going to win he has to somehow appeal to the anti politics mood, continue the expenses clear out and provide a vision. If Brown goes, the economy recovers and unemplotment grwoth slows dramatically, then all bets are off.

    I still think there will be a bit of a UKIP drift back to the Conservatives and Labour may well gain from the BNP. In the end, I think this election could turn on the UKIP vote.

  14. Some interesting questions & responses in this Poll:-

    How much do you trust the Conservatives/Labour to take the right decisions about taxes and public
    spending?:- Net Distrust 19% / 35%

    If the Conservatives /Labour win the next election
    Do you think they will increase or reduce the
    taxes paid by people like you or not make much
    difference?:-Net Raise Taxes 54% / 68%

    Some people say it is possible to reduce public
    spending by up to ten per cent by running our public
    services more efficiently, and without reducing
    the quality of public services or the level of
    welfare benefits.
    In principle do you think it is possible to do this
    or not? :- Net Yes 63%

    Could Conservatives/Labour do this ?
    :-Net No 22% / 46%

    ie-a huge endorsement of Cameron’s ” more for less” objectives, but a lack of confidence he can achieve it-but twice as unconfident about Labour.

    A lack of confidence that Cons will take the right public finances decisions-and twice as unconfident about Labour.

    A significant majority think both Labour & Cons will increase Taxes.

    These opinions really explain the rather half-hearted Conservative Polling lead, and the Polling trough into which Labour has fallen , ie :-realism, lack of confidence & cynicism.

  15. I would make a few points about this;

    1) Although the Conservative figure doesn’t look particularly good, we are currently in an atypical polling environment with the Others far above their usual position. In this new environment, 38% is a pretty handsome trawl.

    2) Although boosted by the expenses scandal, the Others vote is largely composed of eurosceptic, right-leaning small parties. What happens to their figures is likely to depend on what happens with the Lisbon Treaty.

    3) If the Lisbon Treaty is not ratified before the next election, the Tory campaign on Europe will be united, clear and very compelling. They promise a Referendum and most of the UKIP/BNP vote is won over to them.

    4) If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified before the election, it will depend on what the Conservative manifesto says about it. Anything less than a promise of a retrospective referendum will result in a high UKIP/BNP vote. However, making that promise would divide the Tories and weaken them in the face of the LibDems.

    5) If Labour ratify the treaty before the election, they are likely to face the wrath of a very motivated, eurosceptic electorate.

    In summary,
    Treaty Ratified = bad for Tories, bad for Labour, good for UKIP/BNP, good for LibDems.
    Treay Not Ratified = good for Tories, OK for LibDems, bad for Labour, bad for UKIP/BNP.

  16. Weighted Moving Average 38:24:18. Amazing that the cabinet reshuffle and the blatant lies abour “Labour Investment” (this is not a partisan comment – every indpendent commentator agrees on this point) havent hurt Labour in the polls … yet.

  17. Rich,

    Somewhat similiar to your prediction about the GE I think it will be

    Cons 41-45%
    Labour 20-28%
    Lib Dems 19-25%

    But as you will see I think there is quite a large degree of unpredictability still about the ultimate result.

    I will be very surprised if the polls don’t show a movement from UKIP to the Cons by the end of the conference season in September.

  18. Philip,

    I think you are probably right about the swing from UKIP-Conservative between now and September. However, for the Conservatives to hold that support until the General Election will be very difficult if the Lisbon Constitution is ratified, UNLESS the Conservatives promise a referendum regardless of whether the Constitution is ratified or not.

  19. all this talk of percentages belies the lack of high actual volume of support either way.

    moreover, isn’t it apparent yet that the public is far more volatile than in the pre-broadband age?

    who amongst us really believes that politicians cringing grins out in hospitals and nursing homes really means a god damn thing?