Comments on: MORI show economic optimism returning

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:27:23 +0000

With GDP figures for Q1 revised downwards to worst figures in over 50 years, will this have a knock-on effect on optimism levels next month ?

If optimism falls, will this in turn impact on opinion polls ?

By: david p

david p — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 19:07:21 +0000

Reading all these postings about economic optimism it assumes a recovering economy will help Labour. I would remind people that the Brown government was in big trouble before the crisis hit, with the government so unpopular that there were repeated stories about palace coups etc. Also remember that the government’s unpopularity forced out Tony Blair while the economy was still going well.
When the crisis hit it pushed this to the background and enabled Brown to act as a global crisis manager. In short economic green shoots wouldn’t be as much help to labour as people think.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:58:56 +0000

JJB,

If Labour get back over 30%, then I agree that they will not be “annihilated” at the GE.

But what if they do stall in low-mid 20s ?

Complete wipe-out – or even a reduction to under 50 seats – is unlikely, but they could conceivably be knocked down to 100-150. Not annihilation (reduction to nil) but much more than decimation (reduction by one tenth). Decimation would leave Lab on 320, and the largest party in a hung parliament.

In 1997 Tories were reduced to 165 or almost exactly half the number of seats they held in 1992. On the same measure, since Lab are starting from a higher base the Lab figure would be 178. 142 would put them at under 40% of 2005 result, while 118 would put them at under a third.

While few would expect the term to apply in its literal sense, “annihilation” is often accepted as being athe outcome when an organisation becomes incapable of effective action. For a political party losing office, the measure must be whether it can operate as the official opposition. If it is overtaken in the vote, but still retains a substantiial number of seats, it could avoid that. But if it is not even the second largest party, then “annihilation” would have been achieved.

By: NBeale

NBeale — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:57:27 +0000

Adding in the Harris poll gives a WMA of 38:23:18 – but the political damage of the Cabinet resignations and Browns absurd lies about public spending have not been felt fully yet I think.

By: stuart gregory

stuart gregory — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:02:33 +0000

david in france before you go touting partizan points flag, i was highlighting the fact that the conservatives current policys are on-line in detail not really a party political point is it.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:09:46 +0000

Low 30s I think they are heading.
Tories should get 40/41.

By: James Ludlow

James Ludlow — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:18:13 +0000

@ Joe James B – “Labour are unlikely to make a full recovery but the predictions that they are going to be annihilated”

It depends what you mean by “annihilated”. It seems to be a rather moveable feast. A year or two ago, people thought Labour was performing terribly in the polls if it’s share was down around 30. Nowadays we often see people describing a share in the mid 20s as “encouraging for Labour supporters”.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:12:56 +0000

As the FSA guidance requires IFAs and all purveyors of investment products to advise their (prospective) clients: – Past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes.

While we have in the past regularly seen high votes for “others” in Euro Eelctions dissipate at the subsequent GE (or in the case of 1983-1987 a high Alliance vote revert to earlier patterns), it does not follow that the 20%+ currently shown as going to parties other than Con / Lab / LD will decline back to under 10% by next spring.

Yes, there will be some drift back to the major parties – in particular in closely fought marginal seats – but I would not be surprosed if the combined vote for others is in the teens next year. What effect that has on seats will depend on which of the main parties is most able to enthuse its potential supporters.

[Hint - enthusing requires leadership and a clear positive vision.]

By: David in France

David in France — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:42:00 +0000

NickR – Obviously they want to be polling in the 40s before an election, but there has been a very anti politics view for a little while and it has hit both of the big parties. Their decline has been together in roughly the same amount. If the expenses scandal fades, as I suspect it will, then the Labour govt will be judged as would be the normal case at this stage of the cycle. Before expenses, the Tories had been 40+ for pretty much 18 months. I think the public may well have made their mind up on Labour.

—-

So you are saying that both Labour and Conservative are currently polling about 4% or 5% below where they would be were it not for the expenses scandal?

The current high showing for ‘Others’ will not transfer into a GE?

If so, then yes. I agree with you.

You may well be right.

If that is the case, then we could “adjust” current polls to read them as being more like

Conservative 43%
Labour 28%
Lib Dem 18%

Which, I have to agree, is probably far more likely than the current figures we are seeing for the main two parties.

I think we will know whether or not that is the case later in the year. As the summer ends, and autumn begins, ‘Other’ support may well leach away back to the ‘big two’ along those lines.

By: David in France

David in France — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:36:33 +0000

but on the other hand it not that the conservatives do not have policy, you just need to go on their web-site to see that it’s that they will not explain that policy untill the election as they far labour will nick it off of them before hand .

————

Party political comments such as this are pretty boring – and nothing new.

Please try to stick to commenting on the polls rather than waving a flag for one side or the other.