On top of the new Harris this morning, there is also a new MORI poll CON 38%(-1), LAB 21%(-4), LDEM 19%(nc). Changes are from the MORI poll for Unison a week ago. Others remain at 22%, and as usual the largest chunk is going to UKIP on 8%, followed by the Greens and BNP, both on 5%.

Perhaps more interestingly, significantly more people (41%) said they thought the economy would get better over the next twelve months, with only 30% saying it would get better – the highest figure MORI have recorded in 12 years. I am conscious that I’ve promised to do an updated post looking more broadly at the latest economic optimism figures and haven’t delivered yet, but these figures certainly suggest that the public think the economy is bottoming out and due to start recovering.


20 Responses to “MORI show economic optimism returning”

  1. Does this suggest the end of the Labour “mini bounce”? Not brilliant for the Tories either, but a solid lead.

  2. I would agree that there is no visible bounce for Labour, but for the Conservatives it must be concerning that Cameron’s personal support levels are dropping. If it was he who has got them through the initial expenses debacle, then if they slip they could become more vunerable. Labour do look in an absolutely desperate position. If the economy does start to turn upwards, they will regain some support, but this looks too big a gap to close. Plus, job losses will continue to be a drag on Labour’s support – 1 million+ job losses with associated friends/families will hold them back.

    However, the Tories really need to get a clear message across to firm up their support.

  3. So WMA is 38:24:19 back to where it was most of this month. My guess is that Economic Optimism is pushing Labour up and Political Collapse is pushing them down and the two seem to cancel out. A lot depends on how the 22% others break. Really odd.

  4. Only 4 of the last 18 polls have shown the Conservatives on 40% or above.

  5. It has to be a worry for the Conservatives that they are not polling in the mid to high 40’s.

    One would expect to see an opposition party – confronted with an unpopular government and a major recession – much more comfortably positioned than this.

    If (a big if, I grant) Labour support were to recover eventually as economic optimism rises, it’s hard to see how the Conservatives will form a majority government.

  6. from a polling point of view the swing is still around 9% from labour to conservative.

    this means that in terms of polling the projected seats look like this

    CON 37.8% +4.6% 361 SEATS

    LAB 22.8% -13.3% 204 SEATS

    LD 18.5% -4.1% 53 SEATS

    OTH 20.9% +12.8% 32 SEATS

    CON MAJ 72

    one thing is for sure if the govenment keeps polling lower and lower every months at it’s present rate it’s vote will be around 20% by the GE in june next year, and if as planned the tories have a very good election campaine coming up they could steal all of the other votes back.

    but on the other hand it not that the conservatives do not have policy, you just need to go on their web-site to see that it’s that they will not explain that policy untill the election as they far labour will nick it off of them before hand .

  7. In my view Labour certainly won’t fall below 25% in the general election and probably not below 27-28%.

  8. David in France – Obviously they want to be polling in the 40s before an election, but there has been a very anti politics view for a little while and it has hit both of the big parties. Their decline has been together in roughly the same amount. If the expenses scandal fades, as I suspect it will, then the Labour govt will be judged as would be the normal case at this stage of the cycle. Before expenses, the Tories had been 40+ for pretty much 18 months. I think the public may well have made their mind up on Labour.

    The question of do you want Brown or Cameron for the next 4/5 years comes into play as does their economic record, sleaze, honesty etc… That can play both ways, but if Labour recovers from the expenses then I expect the Tories will as well. Go back pre expenses and I think that is a more accurate statement of where the parties sit to an extent. The question is, can the govt stop damaging themselves in time to recover? With the current leadership that is a big ask. For the opposition, can they present their policies in a coherent way to appeal to an electorate? Again a challenge.

  9. There will be a contest at the General Election partly because of spending cuts and fears about how to handle them humanely.
    Labour are unlikely to make a full recovery but the predictions that they are going to be annihilated (usually it seems put about by Lib Dems on the seats threads, who are desperately hoping for gains from somewhere) I don’t really see as the most likely scenario for the next election.

  10. joe james b- one thing just remember what happend in 97-83-45 and the 1930’s in all case on of the main parties was put back to between 70-165 seats at each election if we get back on track and i think we will do next month then what we may see is

    CON 45
    LAB 23
    LD 20-25

  11. but on the other hand it not that the conservatives do not have policy, you just need to go on their web-site to see that it’s that they will not explain that policy untill the election as they far labour will nick it off of them before hand .

    ————

    Party political comments such as this are pretty boring – and nothing new.

    Please try to stick to commenting on the polls rather than waving a flag for one side or the other.

  12. NickR – Obviously they want to be polling in the 40s before an election, but there has been a very anti politics view for a little while and it has hit both of the big parties. Their decline has been together in roughly the same amount. If the expenses scandal fades, as I suspect it will, then the Labour govt will be judged as would be the normal case at this stage of the cycle. Before expenses, the Tories had been 40+ for pretty much 18 months. I think the public may well have made their mind up on Labour.

    —-

    So you are saying that both Labour and Conservative are currently polling about 4% or 5% below where they would be were it not for the expenses scandal?

    The current high showing for ‘Others’ will not transfer into a GE?

    If so, then yes. I agree with you.

    You may well be right.

    If that is the case, then we could “adjust” current polls to read them as being more like

    Conservative 43%
    Labour 28%
    Lib Dem 18%

    Which, I have to agree, is probably far more likely than the current figures we are seeing for the main two parties.

    I think we will know whether or not that is the case later in the year. As the summer ends, and autumn begins, ‘Other’ support may well leach away back to the ‘big two’ along those lines.

  13. As the FSA guidance requires IFAs and all purveyors of investment products to advise their (prospective) clients: – Past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes.

    While we have in the past regularly seen high votes for “others” in Euro Eelctions dissipate at the subsequent GE (or in the case of 1983-1987 a high Alliance vote revert to earlier patterns), it does not follow that the 20%+ currently shown as going to parties other than Con / Lab / LD will decline back to under 10% by next spring.

    Yes, there will be some drift back to the major parties – in particular in closely fought marginal seats – but I would not be surprosed if the combined vote for others is in the teens next year. What effect that has on seats will depend on which of the main parties is most able to enthuse its potential supporters.

    [Hint – enthusing requires leadership and a clear positive vision.]

  14. @ Joe James B – “Labour are unlikely to make a full recovery but the predictions that they are going to be annihilated”

    It depends what you mean by “annihilated”. It seems to be a rather moveable feast. A year or two ago, people thought Labour was performing terribly in the polls if it’s share was down around 30. Nowadays we often see people describing a share in the mid 20s as “encouraging for Labour supporters”.

  15. Low 30s I think they are heading.
    Tories should get 40/41.

  16. david in france before you go touting partizan points flag, i was highlighting the fact that the conservatives current policys are on-line in detail not really a party political point is it.

  17. Adding in the Harris poll gives a WMA of 38:23:18 – but the political damage of the Cabinet resignations and Browns absurd lies about public spending have not been felt fully yet I think.

  18. JJB,

    If Labour get back over 30%, then I agree that they will not be “annihilated” at the GE.

    But what if they do stall in low-mid 20s ?

    Complete wipe-out – or even a reduction to under 50 seats – is unlikely, but they could conceivably be knocked down to 100-150. Not annihilation (reduction to nil) but much more than decimation (reduction by one tenth). Decimation would leave Lab on 320, and the largest party in a hung parliament.

    In 1997 Tories were reduced to 165 or almost exactly half the number of seats they held in 1992. On the same measure, since Lab are starting from a higher base the Lab figure would be 178. 142 would put them at under 40% of 2005 result, while 118 would put them at under a third.

    While few would expect the term to apply in its literal sense, “annihilation” is often accepted as being athe outcome when an organisation becomes incapable of effective action. For a political party losing office, the measure must be whether it can operate as the official opposition. If it is overtaken in the vote, but still retains a substantiial number of seats, it could avoid that. But if it is not even the second largest party, then “annihilation” would have been achieved.

  19. Reading all these postings about economic optimism it assumes a recovering economy will help Labour. I would remind people that the Brown government was in big trouble before the crisis hit, with the government so unpopular that there were repeated stories about palace coups etc. Also remember that the government’s unpopularity forced out Tony Blair while the economy was still going well.
    When the crisis hit it pushed this to the background and enabled Brown to act as a global crisis manager. In short economic green shoots wouldn’t be as much help to labour as people think.

  20. With GDP figures for Q1 revised downwards to worst figures in over 50 years, will this have a knock-on effect on optimism levels next month ?

    If optimism falls, will this in turn impact on opinion polls ?