Comments on: Harris return to voting intention polling…with 29% for Others

By: Nick

Nick — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:43:13 +0000

Talking of unusual names, was that “Marketing Sciences” poll back in April a one-off? I see that the last Sunday Telegraph poll was back to ICM as normal.

By: NickR

NickR — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:13:53 +0000

Mike – I did. I lifted that from their site, which is comparing things compared with the last version of this poll.

By: Richard B

Richard B — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:00:30 +0000

Will we be seeing GALLUP back soon?

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:32:52 +0000

NICKR
I think if you make a comparison with the last survey from IPSOS Mori taken the weekend before this shows CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc) with Others continueing to have big impact on the shares

By: NickR

NickR — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:46:42 +0000

An IPSOS Mori poll is out showing headlines: CON 38%(-2) LAB 21%(+3) LIB DEM 19%(+1). Interestingly Cameron’s satisfaction ratings have fallen, which could begin to explain the drift down of the Tory vote.

By: Wayne

Wayne — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:38:37 +0000

Whichever polls you look at the Tory lead over Labour is circa 15% . As others start to drift back soon and we see Labours [Gordon Brown] in an election campaign up against “call me Dave” I think we will see a comfortable 20/22% lead.

As I posted yesterday I am more than confident (unless the Tory Party is exterminated by an asteroid) that they will cruise into a General Election winning with 45% , Labour getting about 20% and Libs 23/25%.

By: Jim Jam

Jim Jam — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:25:36 +0000

I read this as no change on recent polls as the deltas are pretty much in line.
Con-Lab 15pts, Lab-LD 4 pts.
Scotland and Wales would be interesting sub-set if sample size big enough.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:11:33 +0000

For those who have access to the Metro, their full report includes some detailed tables of votes by gender and age groups. However – beware – these include “don’t knows”.

The headline figures of 35/20/16 are after exclusion of don’t knows – otherwise reported as 30 / 17/ 14.

Despite lower headline figures than other polls, the fact that this is due to extraordinary high support for otehrs means result is positive for Con on all levels.

LDs will be reassured that their support is stronger among older groups who are more likely to vote – with a 16:14 lead over Lab at 55+.

Only crumb of comfort I can find for Lab is that they have a lead of 25:21 over Con among 18-24, but this is the group least likely to vote.

By: David in France

David in France — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:08:29 +0000

No wonder they gave up polling!