This morning’s Metro holds a surprise – there is a voting intention poll from Harris. Once a regular pollster in the UK, Harris dropped out of political polling and became an online company. They produced one poll prior to the last general election (which compared very well indeed with the actual result getting the Conservatives bang on, Labour within 2 points and the Lib Dems within 1) and carries out a regular international poll for the FT, but these are the first voting intention figures we’ve seen from them since 2005.

The topline voting intention figures stand at CON 35%, LAB 20%, LDEM 16%. Others register at a rather remarkable 29%, including 10% for UKIP, 6% for Green and 4% for the BNP. We’ve seen inflated figures for minor parties from all the pollsters in the run-up to, and since, the European elections, but this is something else and something I’m rather sceptical of.

Full tables are on Harris’s website here. For those interested in methodology, Harris are on online company with their own panel, like YouGov. Their polls are weighted by age, gender, educational achievement, region and internet usage, but not it would seem by past vote or party ID (in fact, the recalled past vote in the tables looks very odd indeed – in their unweighted sample Harris found more people claiming to have voted Tory in 2005 than Labour, so hopefully the weighting corrected that!). Instead Harris use something they call “propensity score weighting”, a proprietory weighting they say corrects for behavioural and attitudinal biases from different peoples likelihood to be online. Exaclty how it does so, we don’t know.

While Harris did ask how likely people would be to vote, they do not appear to have weighted or filtered by it.


9 Responses to “Harris return to voting intention polling…with 29% for Others”

  1. No wonder they gave up polling!

  2. For those who have access to the Metro, their full report includes some detailed tables of votes by gender and age groups. However – beware – these include “don’t knows”.

    The headline figures of 35/20/16 are after exclusion of don’t knows – otherwise reported as 30 / 17/ 14.

    Despite lower headline figures than other polls, the fact that this is due to extraordinary high support for otehrs means result is positive for Con on all levels.

    LDs will be reassured that their support is stronger among older groups who are more likely to vote – with a 16:14 lead over Lab at 55+.

    Only crumb of comfort I can find for Lab is that they have a lead of 25:21 over Con among 18-24, but this is the group least likely to vote.

  3. I read this as no change on recent polls as the deltas are pretty much in line.
    Con-Lab 15pts, Lab-LD 4 pts.
    Scotland and Wales would be interesting sub-set if sample size big enough.

  4. Whichever polls you look at the Tory lead over Labour is circa 15% . As others start to drift back soon and we see Labours [Gordon Brown] in an election campaign up against “call me Dave” I think we will see a comfortable 20/22% lead.

    As I posted yesterday I am more than confident (unless the Tory Party is exterminated by an asteroid) that they will cruise into a General Election winning with 45% , Labour getting about 20% and Libs 23/25%.

  5. An IPSOS Mori poll is out showing headlines: CON 38%(-2) LAB 21%(+3) LIB DEM 19%(+1). Interestingly Cameron’s satisfaction ratings have fallen, which could begin to explain the drift down of the Tory vote.

  6. NICKR
    I think if you make a comparison with the last survey from IPSOS Mori taken the weekend before this shows CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc) with Others continueing to have big impact on the shares

  7. Will we be seeing GALLUP back soon? :D

  8. Mike – I did. I lifted that from their site, which is comparing things compared with the last version of this poll.

  9. Talking of unusual names, was that “Marketing Sciences” poll back in April a one-off? I see that the last Sunday Telegraph poll was back to ICM as normal.