Conversely, substantial Lab/LD margins in Scotland and Wales may be sufficient to put Lab ahead for UK, even if they do come third to LDs in England.

There is more than a subtle difference between speculation and assumption ! While I agree that Stuart Gregory’s Lab 15% / LD 30% is far-fetched to say the least, I do not think it impossible for LDs to overtake Labour in terms of votes – but not seats – at the next election.

Historically, we have typically seen a pattern of movement in polls from start of campaign to polling day which generally shows a change of 2-3% in the Con – Lab differential to benefit of Con. However, if one looks more closely, this is typically not down to a discernible shift direct from Lab to Con, but more to a shift of 2-3% from Lab to LD. On that basis, it is quite plausible that if the Lab / LD margin at the start of the campaign is under 4%, then LDs could emerge ahead of Lab in final tally of votes.

This is most likely to happen if, as we have seen in a number of recent polls, both Lab and LD are in the low 20s. [My expectation is that both Lab and LD will be in the 20-25% range at next GE, and that LDs will be (just) ahead of Lab in England, but not across UK].

Note however that LDs overtaking Lab in % vote is not of itself going to make them the offical opposition since they will still be a considerable way behind Lab in terms of seats. If there is a bias in the system such that Cons need to be 5% ahead of Lab to win more seats, and up to 10% ahead for an outright majority, the same is true in spades for LDs.

That will be especially true at the next election where LDs are likely to rack up several million votes in 150+ English seats where they are second to Cons and where Lab are nowhere in sight.

“I’m worried about the implications of “The importance of the family as the bedrock of society”

I think a line like that sells well to the Tory core to be honest and wont be noticed much by the politically ‘less interested’. So no harm done.

One can have laws that attempt to make fathers stay with their children and sustain as many ‘nuclear families’ as possible without being ‘anti single mother’.

In terms of gay rights we’re only talking about marriage and the adoption of children that are contested. Relatively new ‘rights’ even in our own, very liberal, society.

Best to ignore him I think. Then maybe he will go away!

On the point about ‘progressive’ not being a possible descriptor for those on the right. That is simply not true however.

In its political form, progressive means on the side of progress which many take to be the antithesis of ‘conservatism’.

In recent times, however, a new version of ‘progressive’ thought has come into use, focusing on the notion that globalisation is an irresistible force for ‘progress’ in the direction of free-market liberal democracy.

This usage must be described as ‘of the right’ surely?

I am a ‘progressive’ libertarian with conservative social leanings. It is not for anyone else to tell me that I am not these things or pigeon-hole me into a group to their liking. I choose how I describe my beliefs.

It would be helpful if you could use your contacts to find out some of the methodology behind the Harris poll in teh Metro. It would appera to be a proper BPC compliant poll – unlike the parallel UrbanLife poll also reported in the Metro.

Shame Metro spoil what could be a rare investigation into vote retention and voter churn with a totally misleading headline.

The detailed tables reported in the Metro make for interesting reading – and are partcularly encouraging for LDs who have pulled ahead of Lab among older voters. But the very high figure for “others” (29%) suggests that this poll (apparently carried out 10-17 June) still has an overhang from the Euros.

I’m worried about the implications of “The importance of the family as the bedrock of society”. I’m all for family-friendly policies but in the context of the sort of parties that have signed up to this declaration, it sounds like code for anti-gay, anti-single parent policies. I hope that Cameron knows what he’s doing with this lot.