New ComRes poll

ComRes have a new poll in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll a fortnight ago, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 18%(-2). Comparatively little change here, and the “other” vote would appear to still be up, the maths suggests they are probably at around 21%.

I’ve no news yet on whether there are or aren’t any other polls in the works tonight.


63 Responses to “New ComRes poll”

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  1. I don’t know if it will be tonight, but I took part in an IPSOS-MORE poll yesterday.

    How can the over vote be 21%?! Surely it will shrink to a nice 10% max by the election?

  2. Sorry, that should obviously read IPSOS-MORI.

  3. With the use of my methodology I calculated that there is a 80% probability that to within 1 point Labour are 23.5%. This Comres poll showing Labour to be on 22% suggests my calculations to have been correct.

    I also said that to within 1 point the Cons were 40% and Lib Dems 19%. This poll confirms this too.

    When the next Yougov poll comes out it is likely to show very similar figures. Although other pollsters are less likely to do the same.

  4. ConservativeHome were originally reporting the Tory vote to be up 9% since ComRes’s last poll.

  5. As it happens I’ve been away since mid May when the latest poll then was 40/21/18. Given the apparent chaos of the MPs expenses revelations, the Local/EU elections followed by the Cabinet reshuffle, things don’t seem to have changed much.

    Am I being too simplistic and that these events have cancelled each other out or is it the case that the Public have made up their minds and that’s it?

  6. The credibility of COMRES polls has fallen to such an extent that I find it surprising that a serious newspaper continues to hire them.

  7. in the event COMRES figures seam to figure this time around and we maybe seeing the pollster coming back into line with the rest, the other factor is weather any more polls that do come out tonight if any, show a simlar pattern to comres.

  8. not looking like any more polls around tonight just this one

  9. I am still rather dubious about ComRes, although this poll looks much more like the real picture.

  10. Compared to other recent polls, it looks spot on for the Tories and the LDs but on the low side for Labour. Will be interesting to see if the next set of polls confirms or refutes the Labour score as remaining in the low 20s.

  11. Pillip JW has calculations similar to my own. I agree entirely with him as to the likihood of the next YouGov poll.

    However I submit that the liberals may take a hit; because of the money laundering investgation. Naturally that depends upon the time of the polling period.

  12. Weighted Moving Average 39:24:19 too early to see a trend but at some point the laws of political gravity will surely start to bite.

  13. PS: Philip JW: there is no way that any methodology can get 80% confidence intervals of +/- 1 point on these samples. The Std of the Weighted Moving Average is 2.8 which means that the real underlying error has a Std of >3.

  14. Go ComRes. I always said they were great pollsters.

    Dean and Phillip JW, by my calculations for CIs that tight you’re combining the unweighted data from various pollsters and then weighting it yourself, correct?

    I had a go at that earlier taking the data from the most recent ICM, YouGov and IPSOS polls and came out with 38/25/18.

  15. right, have just found out why uk elect was so far out from other polling web-sites i forgot to turn off the tactical vote, its now right and hear is the prediction based on the current polling

    CON 360
    LAB 206
    LD 55
    OTH 31

    conservative majority 70

    swing 8.8% from labour to conservative

    any mp with less than a 17.6% majority is not safe in labour seats

  16. Thats right Mark.

    NB: the liberals with 55 seats ought to be really happy with that considering the challenges they face, and the unusually high level of representation achieved since Iraq 2005.

  17. Stuart – thanks for the numbers but any Labour MP with majority of less than 20%over the cons needs to worry as UNS not likely .
    In my view ,those %age would produce a Tory majority over 100.
    Don’t expect those %ages, though, as others fall back, maybe not to 10% but 12-14%.
    At some stage, however, Labour will give up on the 50 or so most vulnerable seats and concentrate resources on the 50-100 group which may make a difference in a few of them.
    I expect we will get some odd results with, for example, target seat 130 going but 65 holding – even more likley this time due to the expenses scandal, will Blears be safe in ‘Ultra-safe’ Salford for example?
    And then the Nationalists vote will skewer UNS big style in Scotland and Wales.

  18. @Dean & Mark
    If the LDs have 55 on current showings I would be very surprised indeed. If there were an elction tomorrow I would put them at 35-42. I would have thought many more LD/Con marginals were vulnerable with a gap of 20%ish between Con and LD? However, I expect it may in the end turn out to be about right, but with the result of a narrowed gap of about 15-16% between LD and Con?

  19. This latest Comres Toytown poll gives a Tory Majority of 104

  20. Why are some of you so scathing about ComRes?
    As I am a fairly new comment leaver on this site I must have missed something?

  21. Tony Dean,

    I think the reason some are so scathing about Comres is because of the poll on the 31st May showed a particularly way out and low score of 30 points for the Cons.

    Also if memory serves me correctly there was a Green sponsered poll for the Euro Election which showed an unusually high score for the Green party.

    Apparently Comres is not always consistent in its methodology. This may go some way to explaining these anomalies.

    Chance can also be a factor. There is a 50/50 chance that a coin will land heads up. But if heads lands up three times in a row it does not necessarily mean the coin is dodgy. However, the more often this happens the greater the grounds for suspicion there becomes.

    However, if you compare recent Comres polls with the recent highly respected Yougov polls you will find a very high level of agreement. There is therefore no reason to generally dismiss the reliability of Comres polls.

  22. jim jam i compleately agree, but for the time being the others vote seams to be very high i can see there being more than 30 other mp’s after the next election which would most likely be from scotland and a few extra PC members as well also looking on election calculus the BNP have a shot in places like burnley and the lib dems a good shout in oldham but in all the polling data i’ve looked at and i use all the well known polling sites ar all pointing to 60-70 majority at this point but i do think this will grow the nearer we get to an election, the only thing the conservatives need to do is get there policy across a bit better and there are some good ones on the policy page of the main conservative web-site not conservative home which is full of bigots.

  23. tony dean- the lib dems are benifiting from labour as the fall in labour surport is greater than that of the lib dems labour are down 13% sinc 2005 on this month polling and the lib dems are down 4% since 2005 and conservatives up 5% others up 12% and this is the factor.

    the vote from labour is going to the tories but being taken away by others at the same time i.e hangover from the EU elections as soon as the tories come back into the toie fold the lib dems will be pushed out

  24. Philip JW

    Well Explained !

  25. I strongly suspect that when others drift back and the Labour lies re. Tory Cuts vs Spending has now been dismissed as “LABOUR LIES”. We will start to see in the next month

    Con 44
    Lab 22
    LIb 22
    Others 12

    I am that confident that I expect this to be the final GE result next year !!

  26. Labour won’t be as low as 22% in the general election.

  27. andy stidwill-

    don’t be to sure about labours poll rating, if the lib dems get there act in gear they could over take labour, and yes i can see that if anything the others vote will fall somewhat but not by as much as 8% in one month 4% a month is looking like the best prediction so by the end of the summer i think we will see a lower others vote of 9-12%, i do not think the SNP will make as many gains as they think as the vote in scotland may split three ways with labour taking the biggest hit. in scotland seats wise at the next election we could see

    CON +6
    LAB -12
    SNP +5
    LD +1

    outside of that range it gets a bit mixed up with the vote for other partys and the main partys as places like glasgow voting hear there and every where

  28. @Stuart
    Your last two contributions seem contradictory about the prospects for the LibDems?
    I think their position is full of extreme risks, and largely out of their own hands at national level. Local campaigning to defend their sitting MPs may help them save more than any national poll might indicate. However, it is all too easy for them to be swept away down to a couple of dozen in a Blue Tidal wave, if that happens. Also possible is that they cling on to most of what they have against that tide. I do not think opinion polls will help us much as to whether we get a majority Conservative Government or a hung parliament as LD performance is sooo unpredictable! Thus my plea for some polling in hyper-marginal seats!!!

  29. @Philip JW
    Thank you very much indeed. That makes it very clear about Comres in a polite balanced way.

  30. Stuart,

    How do you see LDs increasing their MPs in Scotland ?

    Compared to 2005 LDs share of the vote has almost halved. Even if that vote is concentrated in their key targets, they are going to be hard-pressed to make net gains. They can only win seats from Lab, while of their existing seats at least 3 are vulnerable to SNP, at least 2 more to Con – excluding the 2 which are also SNP targets- and two to Lab. (LDs could lose both their by-election gain in Dunfermline and their surprise 2005 victory in Dumbarton East.)

    There simply are not more than half a dozen Lab seats in Scotland which are likely to fall to LDs

  31. paul j-h

    i was just making the point that nothing can be ruled out at this time due to the up and down volitile nature of politics at the moment so anything can happen and the scots have voted differantly before in un-exspected ways why not now

  32. I think it will generate some pretty bad press for Labour if Margaret Beckett is selected as speaker tonight. Should keep them at 22-25% for the next few weeks.

    The loss of the Norwich by-election soon after will add some renewed pressure on Brown to quit and I just can’t see any ‘light’ for Labour at all to be honest.

    The gradual movement back from UKIP to the Tories might see 40%+ being achieved within days and, despite his reticence, Brown will have to consider his position surely?!

    I think it’s too late for ‘green shoots’ to save them now. I’m convinced they won’t poll any more than about 27/28% right up to election day.

  33. The trouble with making election predictions from opinion poll ratings have rarely been greater.

    I think the Conservatives are on course for a big majority – but whereas they had previously run up big majorities in save seats – they will have a more even spread of results.

    In the last two elections, the incumbancy factor has helped sitting MPs, I can’t see that being repeated !

    The Labour party has all but disappeared in the south east and south west, so I would expect UKIP and the Greens to poll better in these places. It’s a very differnet sort of election campaign in these areas.

    The Lib Dems are clearly not set for gains in scotland and the south west (although events and the the election campaign could change this) but they could still pick up some seats from Labour and the odd conseravtive.

  34. Ivan,

    I agree we will see Labour on 22%. However I expect them to fall below 20% when the Iraq enquiry stink kicks up and they loose the Norwich and Glasgow By Elections. The Liberals will probably start to be the second party very soon as we see them start cruising on 23/25 points and Labour falling down to as low as 14/15 % then steadying at 18% where they belong !

  35. Wayne,

    The Liberals seem not to have capitalised the way they might have been expected to so far.

    I wonder if, without ‘coming off the fence’ in terms of policy and setting out a more left leaning agenda, whether they can get the kind of figures you expect of them?

    For those on the left who feel let down by Labour I suspect a vote for a ‘minor party’ or no vote at all is most likely.

    If the Libs had some balls they would risk the loss of a few seats in the SW to the Tories by really going all out for ex-Labour votes. This kind of strategy might cost some MPs in the short term but could set them up as the second party in terms of vote share at the election thereby giving them a platform to compete for governance in the future.

    They won’t have a chance of this kind again for a long time.

  36. Ivan,

    I agree they won’t have a chance like this again !

    I would think the Liberals will pick up a lot of the left leaning Labour votes regardless of whether they adjust their agenda “leftward”. I think its simply a case of Labour holding onto thier REAL core vote which I believe is around 18%, others seem to think its more like 25%, However recent events have proved its as low as 18 and possibly at a pinch as high as 22%. Their are possibly 6% of the voters above this 18-22% core that could very likely vote Liberal as they would never vote Tory. Then you had all the floating voters (don’t know’s) about 6% who would probably vote tory.

    So basically I reckon from the last election where Labour had 35%. I believe they would loose about 6-7% to the Conservatives and about 6% to the Liberals.

    I also think that the Liberals will leak 3-4% of their vote last time (22%) to the Tories.

    GE:
    I think the Tories will get 44%
    Labour 22%
    Liberals 22-25%

  37. conservative majority 70

    swing 8.8% from labour to conservative

    ————-

    I think that that may be a little higher than the poll of polls might suggest.

    But close.

    At the moment, I think we are probably looking at a Tory majority of around 50.

  38. Wayne / Ivan,

    I have been saying for some time that there is an opportunity for LDs to overtake Lab in votes (but not seats) at next GE and so position themselves as the potential opposition to Cons at election after next (2014/15), and possibly win an outright majority in 2018-2020. Success will be measured by the number of seats in which LDs displace Lab as second to Con. If they can achieve a 2:1 ratio on this measure or better, especially in terms of seats with a majority below 10%, than they really will have earned the right to be seen as the official opposition.

    However, to do this they really do need to grasp the nettle of stating a clear and unambiguous position that applies nationally, and is not subtly nuanced to be not-Con or not-Lab depending on where one is in the country. That requires two things that are not self-evidently on offer from Mr Clegg:

    a) – a clear and consistent statement of where the party stands – which applies regardless of location; and
    b) – recognition that in order to win 10-20 seats from Labour in 2010 they may indeed forfeit 25-40 seats to Cons.

    (b) sounds painful, but the prize is 100+ gains in 2014. Most of those future seats will be won from Cons – but in areas currently held by Lab.

    The cost of not doing (a) is that they may still lose 15-30 seats to Cons without making morre than a handful of compensating gains from Lab.

    Clegg needs to have the guts to focus his attacks on Labour failure to represent the working class. His biggest problem is that in general, LD MPs (himself included) are even more distant from those key voters than the current Lab leadership – so those votes may well splinter to various “other” parties, or just stay at home.

    The proze is there to be won, but does Clegg have what it takes ?

  39. Paul H-J

    “win an outright majority in 2018-2020.”

    – I wouldn’t go quite that far Paul, However I believe the Lib’s will gradually see off Labour over the next two elections to become the official oppostion !

    I think we will gradually see the death of Labour over the next 15 years and the birth of a new Progressive Right of Centre Liberal Party !! Exciting Times Ahead

  40. @ Wayne – “the birth of a new Progressive Right of Centre Liberal Party”

    I wonder if that’s what it will be called. PRoCLiP for short.

    Vote PRoCLiP for Exciting Times!

  41. Wayne,

    Your quote from my post omitted a key word – “possibly”.

    I agree that it is more likely to be 2022-2025 before LDs are in a position to win an outright majority, but one should not discount the possibility that the measures needed to repair the public finances may make the Tories extremely unpopular by 2018.

    However, for LDs to even aspire to win in 2018, they need to make some long-term strategic decisions now. The danger they face is that if they tack too far to the left they may force a split with some of the Orange Book liberals who would feel more comfortable with Cameron.

    The worst possible mistake that Clegg could make in the next 12 months is to do a deal with Labour to keep Brown in power. That would kill any hope of LDs ever replacing Lab as main opposition to Cons.

    To be honest, I don’t think Clegg is the right leader for LDs at this point, but I’m not sure who the alternative should be. Vince Cable is probably sufficiently attuned to the left to pull it off – certainly he can appeal to traditional Lab supporters – but he cannot reasonably be expected to cope with the turmoil to see LDs through to 2020. Likewise, Simon Hughes is in the right (left) place on the political spectrum, but lacks the dynamism needed to see this through.

    Perhaps LDs will just muddle through the next 12 months then dump Clegg for someone new – perhaps someone not yet even an MP.

  42. As a newcomer to this site, and certainly no polling expert, I am interested in what you all have to say, but the differences between LibLabCon are all marginal and not really worth arguing about.
    The real story, surely, is the Others, and I would like to hear from you about the prospects of a BNP MP next time. The trouble is, the opinion poll results I see do not disaggregate Others.

  43. ‘@ Wayne – “the birth of a new Progressive Right of Centre Liberal Party”
    I wonder if that’s what it will be called. PRoCLiP for short.
    Vote PRoCLiP for Exciting Times!’

    Many would argue that a ‘progressive, right of centre party’ is a contradiction in terms.

  44. ‘IVAN THE TERRIBLE
    Wayne,
    The Liberals…
    They won’t have a chance of this kind again for a long time.’

    Well done Ivan, that ability to see into the future remains as absurd as ever–please win the lottery then I might believe in your ability to predict the future.

  45. BERCOW WON THE SPEAKER VOTE BUT THIS LINE COMING OUT OF CONSERVATIVE HOME SAY’S SOMETHING

    Revealing blog from Tom Harris MP:

    “A Labour colleague was in the toilet next to the chamber just before the first ballot, when he was joined by David Cameron in the adjacent urinal.
    “David, I’m about to vote Tory for the very first time in my life,” said my friend jovially.

    “John Bercow doesn’t count!” replied Cameron.”

    i don’t think bercow will be a tory for much longer.

  46. @Stuart Gregory
    “i don’t think bercow will be a tory for much longer.”

    He isn’t one as of now. But as Iain Dale said on News 24 half an hour ago, if he totally tees off the Tories, he may not survive a vote of confidence after the GE. So he is pretty much bound to be impartial.

  47. leslie-

    in some respects your right but at the last GE former speaker mrtin was put into the labour coloum after being re-elected
    , so it can not be said that bercow is now independent he must rip up his party membership for good and never go back to the tories or any of the main parties

    former speaker martin was (labour MP)

    and bercow will still be talleyed up with the tories at the next election

  48. Paul H J

    From looking at the Lib Dems target seats I think there is a realistic chance that they will take about 25 seats from Labour.

    It is possible that some past Labour voters will vote Lib Dems in some seats to lessen a Cons landslide. And with a bit of luck they may just gain a few more seats from the Cons than they lose.

    For the Lib Dems to become the primary challenger to the Conservatives they need Labour to continue to inadvertently press self-destruct buttons. Under such circumstances it is just a matter of time before the Lib Dems capitalise fully on Labour’s demise.

  49. i do hope labour vote goes as low as 15% at a GE and the lib dems as high as 30% that would be a good thing and labour would be finished at last

  50. I’ve just seen a ‘Harris’ poll highlighted in the Metro newspaper with results at Con 35%, Lab 20% Lib 16% Others 29%!

    Looks like it’s a ‘real’ poll.

    Other highlights include the fact that “52 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2005 are considering backing another party”

    Is this for real Anthony or just a ‘voodoo’ poll?

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