New MORI Poll

Ipsos Mori have released a new poll conducted on behalf of Unison. Like ICM’s poll last night, it’s something of a return to normality after the extremes of last month. The topline figures, with changes from MORI’s last poll, are CON 39% (-1), LAB 25% (+7), LDEM 19% (+1) (the previous poll, you may remember, showed Labour way down at only 18%)

The poll included a booster sample of public sector workers allowing MORI to better gauge public sector voting intentions – there support stood at CON 32%, LAB 29%, LDEM 19%. An idea I often see expressed is the public sector employees constitute a “payroll vote” who monolithically vote Labour. It’s not true – public sector employees are more likely to vote Labour, but as this shows, it’s not some sort of guaranteed block vote – at present the Conservatives even have a narrow lead.


113 Responses to “New MORI Poll”

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  1. “It was only when the stock market crash occurred that shortfalls appeared”

    The Times obtained documents under the FoI Act , which showed that Chancellor Brown was warned in 1997 -weeks before his first Budget-by the Savings and Investment Division of the Inland Revenue of the possible consequences of the ACT change.

    He was warned that pension providers could lose around £67 billion on the actuarial value of their existing assets, that employers would have to contribute between £3 billion and £10 billion a year more to make up the difference, while pensioners would find that their pensions would shrink.

    The paper given to Brown included a prediction by the government actuary’s department that some pension schemes might be pushed into insolvency .

    The stock market was buoyant in 1997 but it fell sharply after the collapse in the value of dot-com companies.

  2. Oh, as this is a polling site I will make my prediction for the next poll that may arrive over the weekend

    Con 42
    Lab 25
    Lib 21

  3. I will also make a prediction;)

    Con 38-42
    Lab 21-23
    LibDem 19-21

  4. Quite possibly the most unpopular Labour government ever and they still get a third of the public sector vote? Sounds like a rapantly self-interested, special interest group block vote to me.

  5. Quite possibly the most unpopular Labour government ever and they still get a third of the public sector vote? Sounds like a rapantly self-interested, block vote to me.

  6. Adam – you’ve got to be kidding me. People vote in their own interests? Shocking.

  7. @Colin “They indicate borrowing figures for this year of £200bn-£25bn worse than Treasury last forecast.”

    And three months ago, “independent” forecasters (and Cameron/Osborne) were saying the Treasury’s forecasts for growth of -3.5% in 2009 were fantasy. Now they look like they may be spot on.

    “the debt reduction timetable most likely to appeal to our creditors.” – the creditors seem quite happy with the current debt reduction timetable see last oversubscribed government debt auction for evidence of this.

  8. @ STATTO

    Yes -£7bn away OK…only another £200 bn or so to go this FY.

  9. Prediction

    Con: 38-41%
    Lab: 24-27%
    Lib: 17-20%

  10. ‘ADAM TEBBLE
    Quite possibly the most unpopular Labour government ever and they still get a third of the public sector vote? Sounds like a rapantly self-interested, block vote to me.’

    Actually a third support does not sound like a block vote. It sounds quite close to the core vote figures bandied around here given the often low paid nature of most public service jobs.

    So; the Labour support in the PS seems to reflect the percentage support outside the PS for the same SES status. What a (not) surprise…

  11. Further to my last post about different kinds of LD/Con marginals, a former colleague has pointed out something interesting.
    Look at seats Labour won, or came very close, in 1945 in the SE and SW regions outside the big cities. Then look at all the seats the LDs have gained and either held or lost back to the Conservatives since 1997……..the list has an uncanny correllation!

  12. Poll Alert !

    On the Independent’s site John Rentoul is promising a Comres poll in tomorrows independent…

    Lets see if they can come up with a load of balloney like their recent attempts !

    Anthony are we getting any other polls this weekend ?

    Thanks

  13. STATTO “and three months ago, “independent” forecasters (and Cameron/Osborne) were saying the Treasury’s forecasts for growth of -3.5% in 2009 were fantasy. Now they look like they may be spot on.”.

    They still appear to grossly overstate the likely growth. Please look at the latest independent forecasts including the most recent CBI prediction

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