Comments on: ComRes poll on alternate Labour leaders

By: Tony Dean

Tony Dean — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:16:31 +0000

Until today, as an ex-Liberal, I was intending to vote Conservative come the General Election. However, I have heard on the news tonight that Brown has ordered a look at Electoral Reform. If, and it is a big if, he can deliver a referendum BEFORE calling a General Election AND that at least AV Electoral Reform is as a consequence thus implemented PRIOR to GE polling day next year I will switch to Labour, even if still led by him – as I suspect many current Cameron-leaning ex-Liberals would do?!

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:00:46 +0000

Alec

Do try to keep up? What keep up with you!!!

Please answer the question originally put to you by Angusa

Where does the OCED say in their latest report as YOU HAVE CLAIMED that they forecast growth in 2009? Until you answer that question which you have been dodging ever since Angusa put it you have zero credibility.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:14:32 +0000

Alec,

I think that where we may differ in our view of the validity of ’sharing the proceeds of growth’ as a policy is that you are looking at it from what is right / needed for the country, whereas (all) politicians have to make a subtly different calculation as to what is “acceptable” to the electorate in order to gain office.

The sad reality is that the electorate do not have a good track record in rewarding politicians who present honest, but unpalatable, positions.

The economic predicament in which we find our country is not solely the responsibility of either the government or bankers, but of all those who suspended their doubts and bought into the idea that we could somehow maintain our standard of living on the back of borrowing against inflated asset prices.

At the risk of getting into a morality debate, the tragedy is that any solution will require the genuinely prudent to shoulder the greater burden while the profligate are supported out of the mire into which they have wandered. But it was ever thus.

Preventing a recurrence of the problem will however require some serious changes not just to government and welfare policy, but to social attitudes and ideas of personal responsibility – and that is where the “Broken Britain” strategy comes into play.

Fortunately, that task is not so much about spending programmes and more about moral leadership. In teh long-term it could significantly reduce the welfare burden on public spending – but it will be a long haul (decades, not just years).

By: Alec

Alec — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:50:54 +0000

@Paul H-J – I agree with pretty much all of what you say. I am slightly less charitable towards Cameron/Osborne, particularly with the ’sharing the proceeds of growth’ line they used to take. Both parties have also largely ignored the enormous imbalance in taxation that favours the wealthy that has been a major part of the structural deficit, and to date no one has come up with any proposals that will enable economic policy and performance to become less reliant on the distortions of a malfunctioning housing market. Over time uncontrolled assett inflation is as bad as retail price inflation, but despite repeated bad experiences with this UK policy makers have steadfastly refused to adapt policy. Osborn is beginning to talk about restricting mortgage credit in one way or another, but unless this is combined with other actions to either boost supply or control demand, house buying will return to something only the middle classes can achieve. But you’re right – there will be pain, and the political argument will be over where that pain will fall. The Tory’s past record on this is not good, but we’ll have to wait and see if Cameron can do better.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:09:05 +0000

Alec,

On the economy, there are a range of views as to:
a – the likely path / timeline for recovery
b – the measures most likely to have an impact on that path in the short-term
c – the long-term impact of any measures in b (which may differ from their short-term impact)
d – whether it is preferable to have a double-dip (”W”)or a prolonged slow (”L”) recovery. (a sharp “V” is most unlikely – and probably undesirable).

Whatever the measures taken and the pace of the recovery, one fact remains, the country has a large structural fiscal deficit which is unsustainable in the long-term. That will require a combination of public spending cuts and tax rises to repair. We can debate the balance as between spending cuts and tax rises, but we cannot ignore the problem.

I agree that Cameron / Osborne policy from 2006-2008 failed to address that issue, but I think that was probably driven more by political calculations than a lack of economic understanding. The evidence for taht is how quickly the party has adapted to what is a new political paradigm (inasmuch that the public may now finally understand that the economic trajectory for much of teh past decade was always unsustainable) and are willing to accept that (a) we have a problem and (b) the solutions will be painful.

Brown on the other hand appears to be adopting the Micawber approach that something will turn up to make his problem go away. In all probability taht something will be that time runs out on him and it becomes Cameron’s problem not his.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:08:50 +0000

[Snipped straightforward abuse - AW]

By: Alec

Alec — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:19:58 +0000

@Nick Keene – sorry, but you are quite wrong. The period since 1997 has been characterised by timid government and wasted opportunities, with an economic model that was grossly over reliant on financial markets and with a view on wealth distribution that is socially damaging and economically illiterate. It’s all stuff I was teaching in the early 1990’s, but I don’t feel any pleasure in the ‘I told you so’ line. I see the first signs in Osborne’s speech yesterday that he is beginning to understand some of the issues, but I have little confidence in the Tory leadership – they have been as culpable as Labour and never once saw the dangers. In the present circumstances I fear a Tory government slightly more than a Labour one – (but only slightly more). If you think that makes me a Labour supporter, then think what you like.
And if you’re interested, the FT reported on June 7th a survey of city economists the majority of whom believe the UK recession is technically over ‘for now’. You need to accept that, rightly or wrongly, this is a widespread view among economists. The key question is whether the upturn is based only on short term issues like restocking inventories and whether consumer confidence will still hold, or whether there will be a ‘double dip’ recesssion or a very slow recovery, which is my personal view.
Do try to keep up.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 07:47:59 +0000

Alec

I cannot take seriously your claims to knowledge of economic competence when you claim that the latest OCED report shows that the UK would be in growth in 2009.
Oh and come on off your high horse you are clearly a Labour supporter.

By: Alec

Alec — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:02:00 +0000

@ Nick Keene – another one who failed to grasp what I posted. As it happens, I have studied economics to a high level (probably higher than most people here, having spent many years lecturing on the subject) and currently run a successful small business. I’m not a Labour supporter, as I wearily have to point out far too often here, but I don’t necessarily subscribe to the most pessimistic view on the economy. If you read my posts carefully (take your time) you will see that I merely suggest the more hysterical rantings may be over the top. For example, Osborne fired off recently about a collapse in the pound on the exchange markets. Apart from being a particularly stupid thing for a likely future Chancellor to say in public, (in a years time its likely he will be depending on the markets, and they have long memories) I felt it is far too early to call anything on the UK currency, which funnily enough is just what the markets are thinking right now.
We had a hands off approach to previous recessions which was not a successful policy. We’ll all need to wait and see if the current approach is any better. If we are all honest, we will all agree that any policy approach is a gamble. Now its your turn to show some ‘humility and honesty’ and admit you don’t know the answers for certain either. The between us is I don’t go around abusing those who hold differing view points.

By: Alec

Alec — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:43:53 +0000

@Angusa – the report was on the FT website, from yesterday I think.
@M – resorting to abusing me as a ‘leftie’ makes you look very silly – you clearly didn’t read or understand my post. Nothing in it suggests any personal political persuasion of mine, and I find your comment offensive. Your later comments re the VAT cut and scrappage scheme don’t fit with what is actually happening, but your post at 12.41pm does raise some interesting issues. You are quite correct about the impact of spending on future GDP growth – the key question you have failed to address is what would happen if the government ‘did nothing’ as you suggest. For example there is already clear evidence that government intervention will mean far fewer home repossesions than in the last recession. This means fewer families to rehouse, less benefits payments and lower government spending. As with VAT cuts and scrappage schemes – if they keep retail and auto workers in jobs we spend less on benefits. Your solution does not prevent public debt growth. The question is which approach is best? I’m not a ‘leftie’ nor do I pretend to know the answer. If you were honest you would also accept you have no certainty about which approach is correct – these are judgements, not facts. All I am saying, in a non political and unbiased way, is that there is some evidence that the UK governments approach is having a positive effect. I then pointed out that perceptions of this positive effect may (repeat may) have a bearing on the next election. This doesn’t make me a leftie, but your reaction to my posts says more about your political leanings than mine I think.

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