The News of the World meanwhile has an ICM poll carried out in the constituencies of the cabinet (or at least, the constituencies of the cabinet prior to the reshuffle). The News of the World says it covered 18 constituencies represented by 18 “main cabinet ministers”, so I’m not quite sure who they’ve decided was not a “main” Cabinet minister (especially since the article implies that Tessa Jowell, who wasn’t then an official member of the cabinet, was included).

The article refers to a 12% swing from Labour to Conservative across these constituencies, but also says the Conservative vote has risen by 20 points and Labour’s has fallen 17 points, which would equate to a 18.5% swing. We’ll have to wait for the actual newspaper, or ICM’s tables, to get a better idea. Either way, it suggests a larger swing in the cabinet’s seats than ICM’s recent national polls have been showing in the country as a whole.


112 Responses to “ICM poll of the (former) cabinet’s seats”

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  1. It is clear from the replies to my earlier thread on the economy that some Labour voters are still clinging onto hope in their talk of a economic recovery arriving in the nick of time to save their party from meltdown.

    I will try to make ever more simple. ALL voters know that just as night follows day then there will be a recovery at some point be it ‘V’ shaped, ‘U’ shaped or what I fear it will be which is a ‘W’ shaped recovery.

    Most intelligent voters will appreciate that this recovery was helped to some extent by the Bank of England’s belated moves on interest rates and its more timely moves on the injection of money into the system. Unfortunately for Labour as they gave the Bank independence in 1997 then the credit will not accrue to them.
    Then there is the fact that the statistics lag behind the actuality. In other words even if we do get a recovery by May 2010 it is more than likely that the figures won’t be known until Mr Cameron is sitting in Downing Street.

    And as others have pointed out even if the recovery comes sooner and in a more tangible form than anyone has suggested the awfulness of the aftermath remains to be dealt with and the years of Labour profligacy are again familiar themes with the voters. Cameron holds all the cards.
    There is no way back Alec and co. Better to dump Gordon now and take the medicine in a early autumn election before its gets worse whilst the Tories are still having their wings partially clipped by the expenses scandal which by next May will have faded as an issue outside a few isolated constituences.
    The game is up.

  2. Will Brown survive in the light of these results?
    I think he will since a vote of no confidence would lead to a G.E.
    Not many Labour back benchers want to risk being voted out themselves;
    The MPs with 5-15% majorities would be the only ones to benefit [;assuming a change in leader would improve Labour’s chances atall.]
    BROWN SURVIVES X
    BROWN GOES
    Register your prediction

  3. An interesting point I ran: At least in England/Wales, that breakdown yields a 44.4-46 split between “Tories and protest parties” (Con and UKIP) and “Left-wing and protest parties” (the other four; the BNP primarily siphoned off Labour support, so it falls here). Ironically, in spite of only coming in 1.6% behind the right-wing parties, vote-splitting left the “left block” 12 seats down (as in most regions, Green+BNP would net a seat even if neither did on their own). The best example of this was the SW, where the “left-wing four” got about 34% of the vote but only one seat (Greens, Labour, and the BNP all fell short; the LibDems only got one seat).

  4. Gray…dont start the whole ‘Is the BNP right or left wing’ off again…

  5. Michael,

    It is not so much a left/right thing but a fact that BNP votes come from former Labour voters and not from Tories.

    The serious question for Labour is how many of the votes lost to BNP and Greens last week will come “back” at the GE ?

    While UKIP has taken a large chunk at the Euros, most (not all) of that will revert to Con at a GE – even one in the next few weeks.

    Most “swing” calculations work on the basis of votes moving to/from Party A/B. In fact, what is more likely is that in many places Lab will fall further than Cons rise, but it will still deliver the seat.

  6. Michael: Paul hit it on the head. I am not classifying them on one side or the other ideologically so much as I am placing them there based on who they are drawing support from. UKIP draws primarily from the Tories, the Greens draw from Labour, and the BNP draws from Labour. The evidence is quite broad that BNP support is coming from Labour, much the same as there was great concern in the US back in 1968 that George Wallace would tear the Democratic Party apart by pulling off union voters. It’s a similar strain, and I classify it based on that, not on whatever policies they’re carrying with them.

  7. One other footnote: Do remember that whatever side Oswald Mosely fell down on ideologically, he drew from a disaffected bunch of Labourites with his parties as far as I can tell.

  8. What we really need to do on the national projection from the County Council elections is to compare some Parliamentary seats to last year, but they are generally different places which voted.

  9. @Grey

    Fair enough;)

    Its also worth noting that in Euro elections, the less euro-enthusiastic Lib Dem supporters probably vote Green which is why they dont do as well in european election, thats just my thoughts.

  10. As a footnote to my last comments I would add that the Tories are now one to ten on with the bookies to win the next election and one to three on to gain an outright majority….

  11. I think Brown was the wrong choice for them.
    They should have had a wider variety of candidates promoted and with experience to choose from when the time came, and the trick from their point of view I think was to keep firmly in the centre ground, but to do more for the core Labour voters to motivate their members and arrest these appalling turnouts.

    I think this rather silly love in spectacle in 2007 where they all just went for him unanimously without a contest, many clearly hoping to believe what they wanted to believe, has weakened him, the government, and their party as things got more difficult.

  12. Michael,

    Yes, it is likely that the visible pro-EU approach cost the LDs a large number of votes in the Euro elections, and that a fair number of LD supporters voted Green.

    However, there is ample evidence that in the SW, which has historically been one of the strongest regions for LDs, most of the more euro-sceptic support went to UKIP not Greens. (The strong Green showing in the SW having come mainly at the expense of Labour)

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