Comments on: Looking for exit polls?

By: Pippa

Pippa — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 09:47:58 +0000

Quincel,

Counting begins at 5pm today in London if that helps.

By: Keir Stitt

Keir Stitt — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 09:17:13 +0000

Thanks Anthony,
Perhaps the beeb should put some methodology on their website, it would be helpful.

Is that all of England or all of GB?

By: Gray

Gray — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 08:14:43 +0000

By the way, an odd follow-up: When were the filing deadlines for the local races?

By: Gray

Gray — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 08:10:48 +0000

I’d like to also note that I find the extrapolations of parties’ votes to be terribly useless this time. Though I know Labour tends to do poorly in a lot of these races, I do suspect that they had an unusual amount of trouble getting candidates to run this time. In some counties, I’d wonder if someone hadn’t mixed up the century given how poorly organized Labour seemed to be (and how well, by comparison, the LibDems were doing): Labour came second on exactly four occasions, and three of those were places they had controlled (the exception was Cumbria, which seems “uncontrollable” as a rule). In Staffordshire, they went straight from government to fourth place as far as seats went. On no less than 4 occasions they seem to have been outdone in seat totals by a minor party (my personal favorite being Staffordshire on account of UKIP and the LibDems getting to flip a coin for opposition there), and on four occasions they got blown clear off (incl. Cornwall) while they were knocked down to a single seat on 5 more councils.

Finally…what the devil happened in Cornwall? 32 independents makes no sense whatsoever…nothing like that seems to have happened elsewhere, so why Cornwall? Was it just being a new unitary authority, or was there something funny going on there? I ask not only because of the pile-o-indies, but also because Labour regularly embarassed themselves there with low single digit vote shares and finishes in 5th or less.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 23:35:25 +0000

The Tory share is actually 2% lower this year compared to 2004 with the R+T projections so the predicted Tory share in the Euro election this year should have been 24.7% not 25.7%. The other figures are correct:

C – 24.7%
Lab – 18.6%
LD – 12.9%