I suppose writing a final round-up was tempting fate somewhat! YouGov have conducted a final poll for the European elections, to be published in tomorrow’s Telegraph and just released on Sky. Topline figures, with changes from the their last poll, are CON 26%(-1), LAB 16%(-1), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 18%(+2), GRN 10%(+1), BNP 5%(-2). The poll was conducted yesterday evening and today, so it is very up to date. Sample size was a hefty 4000.

Not a vast change in the last few days, but a marginal shift towards smaller parties. Perhaps the two most significant things there are Labour dropping to third place behind UKIP (though of course, UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all still very close and it could go every way) – expectations for Labour must be getting so low that if they do manage to hold second place it would be seen as something of a victory – and secondly the BNP dropping to 5%. On a uniform swing that wouldn’t be enough for them to gain any seats, though of course, it is possible that they could do so if their vote is concentrated in the right places.

UPDATE: The second set of figures in the poll are being reported on Sky as Westminster voting intention figures, and in the Telegraph’s initial report as an all expressing an intention European intention. My understanding is that Sky are right – these are the latest Westminster voting intentions (they’d be a bit odd for European voting intentions anyway). So, with changes from the last YouGov Westminster poll, the figures are CON 37%(-2), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The others are shared between 8% for UKIP, 5% for the Greens, 4% for the SNP and PC, 4% for the BNP.

91 Responses to “New YouGov eve-of-poll figures”

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  1. I’m not suprised that UKIP are second in this poll, i think could will get more than the polls are showing, maybe 20-22%. I think this comfirms a battle for second place between Labour, UKIP, Lib Dems, and going by the other polls, the Greens.

  2. Labour have dropped below YouGov? I had no idea they were fielding candidates

  3. Ah, the perils of trying to get a post up very quickly :)

  4. The BNP will poll at least 10% iam in the south east and everyone i know is voting for them

  5. I don’t believe the BNP figure is as low as 5%. It just doesn’t feel right when compared with the word on the street. I wouldn’t be surprised if it approached 10% in reality. But pollsters can only rely on the replies they get.

    Can any pollster devise a legitimate way of adjusting for the “shame factor” re the BNP?

  6. My admittedly limited canvassing experience in one constituency in the south-east suggests that the analysis that UKIP will be this high is just wrong. I just haven’t seen that level of Tories switching to UKIP. Some, a notable amount, but just not that much. Are people using the polls to beat up the main parties? I’d be amazed if the Tories were as low as this based on my canvass returns (limited though they are).

  7. Craig, you say that, but I’ve been actively campaigning in the grassroots from Sussex to Kent and I have not found one BNP voter, that is in capacity with anti-fascist campaigning and also Green Party campaigning in both traditional Tory areas, traditional Labour areas, and the Lib Dem controlled wards.

    Not one.

    I think the BNP will perform worst in the South East than anywhere else. On the right, the South East is UKIP country, and on the left, it is the Greens.

    I would not be surprised to see UKIP come first in the South East and the Greens come third. Perhaps the only region where I think this is at all possible given the breakdown of the polls that I have seen.

  8. Craig – shame we can’t have a bet on that – perhaps you ought to get out and meet more people. Let me guess you are voting BNP ? and everyone you meet is too polite to argue with you.

  9. Craig, I doubt it will be 10%, as at that rate the BNP would poll about 12 to 14% nationally, and that is unthinkable in my opinion, despite the shyness of BNP respondents to pollsters. However, as per my question on Anthony’s previous summary, I think the BNP might sneak a seat in SE region if they poll more than half (say 7.6%) of either the Green or Labour vote of circa 15%? Does my maths make sense?

  10. No massive changes from what I can tell. Lab, Lib, and UKIP are in a dead heat for second to fourth still, etc. I’d chalk this up to statistical noise, frankly: it’s not a big swing and it’s in line with three of the four recent polls (ignoring the one the Greens commissioned; I’m willing to bet that they prompted for the Greens as well as the others, and -possibly- threw in a priming question or two).

  11. Have just seen some canvassing results taken since 6.ooPM Labours vote has all but disapeared, GREENS
    UKIP AND LIBERAL DEMOCRATS even BNP have increased, the news of Labour Ministers resigning is affecting the way people are thinking of voting has changed dramaticaly,
    Would not like to be a Labour candidate, their share of the votes could drop to 11%, the same area produced 17% last night , Has anyone any idea why this is happening?
    This yougov poll

  12. seems to be correct..

  13. I’d put money on the south east going Tory, UKIP, Lib Dem, Green, Labour, BNP in that order…

  14. Jon Craig has just said on Sky News that the Westminster voting intentions from this poll are Con 37%, Lab 21%. Looking at the Telegraph website, I wonder whether he is mixing it up with the “not certain to vote” figures?

  15. Bill, fascinating, this is exactly what was happening during the day at work as I chatted to colleagues – people are shifting like mad, and by the time I went home our last staunchest of staunch Labour voter had switched to Green! (although there are no BNP voters at my place of work – well at least nobody owns up to it! – unlike the white van men and their families and hangers-on who live in my street!)

  16. This poll is pretty close to what I was predicting in the previous thread earlier today, although the BNP vote is lower than I think it will actually be. Apart from the BNP share, all the others are within 1% of what I thought might happen. It’s a shame we have to wait a few days for the results, which could result in the prime minister stepping down, especially if Labour do come fourth.

  17. Richard B – no, my understanding is John Craig is right and the Telegraph are wrong. Those are Westminster figures.

  18. If the BNP win in a seat in the South East (their weakest region given they only have one councilor here- Swanley), their vote share nationally would be way off the pollsters.

    BNP cannot win in the South East. No way will they get the 9% needed. No way.

  19. You know, a thought just hit me: How many people are saying they’ll vote Labour more out of habit than preference? As in, how many people who usually vote Labour keep saying that as a matter of not publicly admitting a defection but will vote to zap Brown tomorrow?

    Of course, the reverse is true…is there a chance that there’s a “shy Labourite” factor at play in here given all the scandals (much as there was a shy Tory factor in the 90s) that is propping up Green (and other) support?

    And finally, Domesday raised a good point: Though I still don’t quite see Labour falling to 4th nationally, regionally the situation is likely to be a bit different. I think the seat totals might be out of order with the national vote totals (as NE only has three seats, etc.), and while Labour holds onto third vote-wise they might slip into 4th seat-wise.

  20. Anthony a question please. Would you hazard a guess from previous similar events ( a percentage impact?) of the Blears resignation on the final Labour share of the European vote, compared with the pre-Blears resignation final poll figures we have? Or is it utterly unquantifiable compared to previous events?

  21. Anthony Wells:

    Given your connections to Yougov can you please clarify what figures are what in this latest Yougov poll as the Telegraph and Sky are making a real dog’s breakfast of reporting it.

    Can you tell us:

    Whether there are headline Westminster figures provided and if so what are they?

    What the ‘certain to vote’ figures for the Euro Poll is?

    What the overall ‘non certain to vote’ figures for the Euro Poll are?

    You will also note that the Telegraph in their article has made a serious error in claiming that the Conservatives polled 37% in the 2004 Euro Election (it was 26.7%.).

    Both Sky and the Telegraph are trying to talk up a big swing to ‘others’ whereas from what I can see it is a mere +2%. Whats being reported is nonsense!

  22. Whether or not UKIP get 7% in the General Election as YouGov poll suggests surely depends on whether we get that general election before the Irish re-referendum or afterwards.

    An early GE means every UKIPper should vote Tory to kill the EU constitution as that would be the result; a late General Election means UKIPpers have nothing to lose so 7% might be accurate.

    Question is whether we have polls that assess UKIP vote both prior to ratification by Ireland and then after the EU constitution becomes law around Europe…

  23. Luke,
    I don’t know if they need 9%. Correct me if I’m mixing up the seat allocation methodology, but given that the region has 10 seats, aren’t we likely to see a lot of leftover remainders (i.e. a party with 14% would get one seat and have 4% left) that could let them in on more like 6-7%? I’m not disputing their positioning; I just think your bar might be a bit high.

  24. Anthony,

    Did John Craig on Sky just make a mistake by saying that the general election voting intention was con37 lab 21 ? isn’t he getting confused with uncertainty to vote ?

  25. @Bill Furness

    My idea is that it is because the cabinet have come out today in support of Brown. If they will not get rid of him then the public will along with more than half of Labour MPs, including more than half of the cabinet.

    I am still hopeful that the Lib Dems will come in second. Although I admit this poll has reduced my confidence somewhat. According to the polls UKip are clearly favourite to come second.

    One grounds for my optimism is that the Euro Election is taking place at the same time as the English County Elections where the Lib Dems have relatively high support. This will raise the turnout level for the Lib Dems (and also for the Cons).

    I stick to the same prediction I made a few days ago:

    Cons 27%
    Lib Dems 17%
    UKip 16%
    Lab 15%

    Another reason for thinking the Lib Dems will reach 17% is that they are a natural option for would have been Labour voters whose numbers are swelling by the hour at present.

  26. If Labour do come fourth with 15%, how many people think that Brown will be able to survive such a result?

  27. the telegraph says:

    If the responses of people who are not certain to vote are included in the results, the Tory vote share jumps to 37 per cent, with Labour in second place on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems in third on 19 per cent. Ukip support drops to just 8 per cent, reflecting the party’s lack of “casual” sympathisers.

  28. Tom
    I’m getting very confused indeed. Are you talking Westminster intentions or Euro-poll intentions viz the Telegraph?

  29. OK The EU Vote when you crunch the numbers – according to the above poll
    Conservative 22
    UKIP 13
    Labour 13
    Lib Democrat 12
    Green 6
    Scot Nat 2
    DU 2
    PC 1
    SF 1

  30. Just to make it absolutely clear, the figures the Telegraph refer to in their original report, 37-21-19, are Westminster voting intention figures. They are NOT “all expressing an opinion Euro figures”.

  31. Living here in the West Midlands and talking to many people in the area the latest YouGov Euro poll seems to reflect the opinions expresed, although I have struggled to find a single potential Labour voter, they all seem to be moving to the Green Party, so 10% maybe an under estimate. Inrteresting times! If Labour do end up under 15%, Brown will do very well to survive the fallout.

  32. Latest canvassing returns.
    FROM 6 TO 9.00 TONIGHT

    Con 27%
    ukip 20%
    libdem 19%
    labour 12%
    green 10%
    The results will be different due to EU and County.
    as ukip are not in the County,

  33. Thank you Anthony. I am no longer confused! Well, not for a little while longer anyway I hope!!!!
    Hazel Blears resignation – how much impact do you predict on tomorrow’s Labour share compared to this latest poll? (Are there past precedents to compare it with?)

  34. This is the most interesting election I can remember, and I go back a long way. Where is Mike (The Oracle) Richardson when you need him?

    The BNP situation is one of the interesting factors. I predicted some time ago that they would get at least one seat, and possibly two. Though hardly anyone agreed at the time, this is now looking like an underestimate if anything. If they do have some success, and their current leaders hold off from being too inflammatory when the inevitable interviews happen, they might start to attract higher-quality candidates in the future, which in turn might make them even more acceptable.

    The other parties fighting for 2nd/3rd/4th/5th is also very interesting. Is this a one-off situation for these European elections (most likely I think), or the start of a new stage of British politics (possible). We have already moved from an almost pure two-party system in the 50s and 60s to a two-and-a-half party system now. The next couple of Westminster parliaments could have very clear Tory majorites, with the main opposition divided between Labour and Liberal who would not always co-operate. There will also be significant representation of ‘Others’, led by the Scots and Welsh Nationalists plus the Irish, and a smattering of Independents, Greens and even BNP.

    Interesting times indeed!

  35. Tony – specifically, none. A party being seen as divided however would be negative electorally, though Labour may well have been being viewed that way anyway.

  36. I am finally going to admit it… I am scared of the BNP presence. All over my town of 9000 people there are BNP stickers on every letterbox, outside corner shops and lamposts. We have tried our best to rip them all down but it seems impossible. Other than Labour they are the only political presence here :(

  37. You’re right about the BNP. That 5% could be highly concentrated. I still expect then to win a seat in Yorkshire, the Labour vote in Yorkshire is more likely to switch to BNP than to the Greens. You only have to look at the council elections especially in wards in certain areas of W Yorks. There has been a definite swing from Labour to BNP.

  38. Don’t worry Joshua. This is not the Weimar Republic. Despite the current Westminster shambles, the British majority actually want a functioning democracy, not a Fuehrer character. Unpleasant though it may be in some localities, and undoubtedly though they will do well as a protest tomorrow, such a party will never get a permanent grip in England. Even a 7-10% showing tomorrow would not amount to a parallel to the “Signal Lippe” election which launched the NSDAP to big time status. Remember the NF in France, how when opposed in the second round by Chirac alone it proved that they were stuck in the mid teens as everyone ganged up against them. It would be interesting to have a poll to discover how many electors would never ever vote BNP – I suspect it would be over 75%.

  39. Fortunately Joshua the proliferation of BNP stickers in your town will probably not transfer into votes, let’s hope not anyway.
    Do we know what the expected turnout is? Less than 25% will probably be to the advantage of parties of the right UKIP/BNP, so hopefully Labour voters will take the opportunity to switch to Green/No2EU, rather than sitting on their hands.

  40. I honestly think that Labour may finish fifth. I also think that the general election may be sooner, rather than later. Why? A Labour MP is trying to gather support for a letter calling on Gordon Brown to resign as PM and party leader. If I were Gordon Brown, I’d say to my MPs, “Stop it! Or I will call an election.” But I don’t think the backbench Labour MPs will stop their agitation. Brown will then either have to press the nuclear button or climb down. I don’t think he’ll be able to climb down.

  41. Tony,
    Since tables are sometimes there and sometimes not (and sometimes take two weeks to come out), is there any way you could put polling tables in one centralized place (like a link on the list of polls when a poll’s tables appear)?

  42. Anthony, how come your projected Tory majority has dropped to 60 despite the most recent poll giving them a 18% lead while the previous one gave them an 8% lead? Have the numbers reached a tipping point when parties other than Tory and Labour eat into the leading party’s majority despite the widening Con-Lab gap?

  43. Sorry, that should be a 16% lead.

  44. I’m so looking forward to tomorrow.
    The first time I’m old enough to vote.
    After months of indecision, I have decided on a party to vote for, and am quite excited.

    I think the results will be

    Conservative- 27%
    Ukip- 19%
    Labour- 18%
    Lib Dem-16%

  45. I’m not worried about BNP winning a Euro seat. It will drive home to the general public the importance of getting out to vote for the main parties in the future.

    This GE poll showing Labour on 21% and Lib Dems on 19% confirms the small shift from Labour to Lib Dems I have been expecting. Indeed, the average recent polling is Lab 21% and Lib Dems 19%

    It encourages my belief that the Lib Dems will pick up votes in the Euro election from would have been Labour voters.

  46. correction: the average is of course Lab 22% and Lib Dems 19%

  47. I have to agree with those who think the BNP will do better than predicted. In my neighbourhood, I’ve seen BNP posters in the windows of quite a few houses – something that I’ve never seen around here before, ever. It’s not scientific I know, but still.

    Political events are moving so fast – Blears, the backbench plotters, the Brown-under-pressure headlines – this poll already feels like this poll is out of date.

  48. “Political events are moving so fast – Blears, the backbench plotters, the Brown-under-pressure headlines – this poll already feels like this poll is out of date.”

    I agree, isn’t it great? Politics hasn’t been this exciting since I was a few months old (and Thatcher lost power).

  49. Guess what: the Weighted Moving Average is 37:22:19 and in fact YouGov is spot on with both the CLead (16 due to rounding) and the L:LD gap (3 but actually equal to the all-time low of 2.8)

    And this is before Hazel rocked the boat (wearing, according to the Standard, a badge that said “rock the boat”).

  50. I think it’s pretty clear that UKIP and the Greens are going to do well in the Euro elections.
    The Lib Dems must be very disappointed not to be picking up more protest votes, and to be losing support in other polls.
    The two main parties, however, will get a hammering in the Euro election. The challenge really for the Tories is to get a good result in the CC elections whilst all this is happening.

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